Ousted Republicans plot rematches as impeachment revs up
NEW HARTFORD, N.Y. — Former Rep. Claudia Tenney got swept out of Congress in 2018 on an anti-Trump wave. But she thinks the president could bring her back next year.
The one-term congresswoman lost to freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) by less than 2 points in the last election. But in 2016, this upstate New York district went for Donald Trump by more than 15 points.
And with Trump back on the ballot in 2020, Tenney and her supporters see a chance to make her comeback.
“I think it’s going to be a good year,” Tenney said in an interview. “In a presidential year, I think we’ll be able to get some of those gains back.”
And she’s not the only one. A series of ex-Republican lawmakers who lost narrowly in Trump strongholds in 2018 are plotting rematches next year with dreams of riding on the president’s coattails.
Particularly amid an impeachment debate that has polarized the country, the former lawmakers think a juiced-up Trump turnout will lift them past their Democratic opponents and potentially help Republicans win back the House.
Former GOP Rep. David Young is running against freshman Democrat Cindy Axne in a district that includes Des Moines, Iowa — a repeat of the tight 2018 race. Former GOP Rep. Karen Handel is seeking a rematch against Rep. Lucy McBath, a Democrat representing suburban Atlanta.
Another former Republican congressman, Rod Blum, could be eyeing a challenge to freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in northeast Iowa; he protested outside Finkenauer’s office this month at a Trump campaign-sponsored event to condemn impeachment. And former Republican Rep. Mike Bishop has yet to publicly rule out a run against Democrat Elissa Slotkin in Michigan.
“It was a tough year, just not a great environment for Republicans,” Tenney said of 2018. “I think the environment now is different.”
But Tenney and other the congressional alumni may not be able to count on Trump. His approval ratings are near historic lows for presidents heading into a second term, and freshman Democrats have worked hard to win over independents and moderate Republicans.
Public support is also growing for impeachment, with 45 percent of independents now backing it, compared to 32 opposed, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.
Still, Trump holds a grip over the Republican base that seems unshakable, even amid the ongoing investigation into alleged efforts by the president to withhold military aid unless Ukraine publicly investigated his political rivals.
Trump’s most ardent supporters have already begun organizing in Brindisi’s district, more than a year out from the next election. Pro-Trump groups staged protests outside the freshman Democrat’s office and at some of his public events — including a town hall here in October — to rally local support in New York’s 22nd Congressional District.
Many of those who have picketed, including Mount Vernon, N.Y. resident Gilda Ward, have focused squarely on Democrats’ impeachment push. And it doesn’t matter to them that Brindisi, one of the most vulnerable freshmen, remains one of seven holdouts in his caucus who oppose the impeachment inquiry.
If he did come out in favor, Ward predicts, “It would be a death knell.”
“I am totally opposed to any kind of impeachment,” she said in an interview after attending a Brindisi town hall. “It really bothers me, and it bothers many of us who voted for Trump.”
Tenney — an enthusiastic Trump supporter who appeared alongside the president and his family at campaign events in 2018 — plans to once again embrace the president. The former congresswoman said that since announcing her campaign in late September, she’s gotten calls from Republican friends who say Trump is happy she’s running again.
Brindisi’s campaign is eager to zero in on his House opponent and avoid the presidential politics.
“This district has long turned the page on Claudia Tenney, who delivered for late night TV more than she ever did our district,” said Luke Jackson, a Brindisi campaign spokesperson.
Republicans are betting that if Trump remains popular with the GOP base, he could significantly ramp up turnout — clawing back seats that were lost in the 2018 wipeout.
That includes the district where Tenney and Brindisi will battle it out next year. Trump won nearly 160,000 votes in the district in 2016. Turnout plummeted two years later when Tenney got less than 124,000 votes.
GOP campaign operatives are looking at the same math for Trump-backed districts across the country that are now held by Democrats.
Young said in an interview he is working to find Trump voters who stayed home in 2018 through a “data deep dive” as he plans his rematch against Axne. He added that he senses an energy from voters in his Des Moines-based district that are frustrated by Democrats’ “obsession with trying to remove the president.”
Trump won nearly 193,000 votes in Iowa's 3rd District in 2016. Young won just under 168,000 when he lost to Axne by 2 points two years later. Activists on both sides are motivated, Young said, but he argued Democrats neared their high-water mark in 2018. Axne came close to matching Hillary Clinton's 2016 vote total but Young won far fewer votes than Trump.
“In November 2018, the Democrats had high voter turnout, almost presidential levels,” Young said. “I think to some extent they may have peaked or are getting close to peaking, but Republicans have so much more room to grow.”
In the midterms, dozens of Democratic candidates outperformed Clinton in their districts. But it’s not clear if they achieved those margins because Trump voters stayed home. Those candidates likely owe their victories in part to two other factors: their ability to persuade Trump voters to back a Democrat for Congress as well as their skill at turning out Democratic voters who typically sit out the midterms.
Rob Simms, a top strategist for Handel, who is seeking a rematch with McBath in suburban Atlanta, blames her loss on high Democratic turnout caused by Democrat Stacey Abram's narrow loss for governor.
“The Democrats, really the Abrams campaign, did a tremendous job at bringing out voters who would not typically vote in an off year elections,” said Simms, a former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Georgia will be more of a battleground in 2020, he said, and Republicans will be ready.
But particularly in suburban districts with highly-educated voters like Georgia's 6th, the momentum is moving away from the GOP and there may be a large chunk of persuadable voters up for grabs. Mitt Romney won the seat by 24 points in 2012 but Trump carried it by 1 point.
Fundraising appears to be an early advantage for McBath, too. The Georgia Democrat outraised Handel nearly 2 to 1 in the last quarter, and has a fundraising war chest of $1.3 million, compared to Handel’s roughly $630,000. Handel also has to clear a GOP primary before she can challenge McBath again.
Meanwhile, few ousted GOP lawmakers seem eager to try again in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. (Former California Republican David Valadao is a rare exception, as he tries to reclaim his Central Valley-based district that Trump lost by 15 points.)
Two Republicans who once represented suburban districts are running again in different, more GOP-friendly spots, an indication that they still view the climate as unfavorable in their old seats.
Republican Pete Sessions who lost a Dallas-area district is now running 100 miles south in Waco. And Darrell Issa, who retired in 2018 from a Clinton-won seat, is running in a neighboring San Diego district held by embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter.
Still, Republican strategists see a path back to the House majority through the 31 Democratic-held seats that Trump won in 2016.
“The dynamics in ’20 are going to be much different,” Simms said of GOP chances in suburban Georgia. “We have an incumbent president. We have an incumbent senator who’s going to be on top of the ticket. Their campaigns are already organized and functioning and working in the state today.”
Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine