Russia and Turkey Are the Winners in Syria

Stratfor Worldview

Security, Middle East

While the Kurds suffer.

Key point: The withdrawal of U.S. forces was exactly what Ankara and Moscow wanted.

After more than six hours of talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged in Sochi, Russia, on Oct. 22 with an agreement to establish a "Syria Safe Zone" along the Syrian-Turkish border. While the agreement serves the interests of both Moscow and Ankara, the other parties involved in northern Syria will find much to dislike about the deal — something that will cloud its implementation. 

The Winners

The agreement is a significant victory for Ankara, as it cements the Turkish military's gains as part of Operation Peace Spring between the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn and stipulates the withdrawal of the People's Protection Units (YPG) from nearly all the remaining areas of the border up to a depth of 30 kilometers (18 miles). In their place, joint Russian-Turkish units will begin patrolling up to a depth of 10 kilometers from the border. This allows the Turks to preserve their military gains in three previous operations while further driving the YPG away from the border without having to resort to more military operations. The deal also serves Moscow's interests by furthering Turkey's dependence on Russia in Syria, extending Russian influence in the north and solidifying Moscow's role as a key stakeholder in the country. 

The Losers