Will Russia Get What It Wants in Syria?

Stratfor Worldview

Security, Middle East

Moscow still has a long road ahead of it.

Key point: Moscow hopes to win big but could pay a high cost.

Just over four years after the Russian military intervention in Syria began, Moscow continues to enjoy the diplomatic, commercial and military rewards of its operations in the Levant. By driving a wedge between its NATO foes, testing out new weaponry and more, Russia has notched up a number of strategic and tactical successes in Syria. These gains notwithstanding, it's not all clear sailing for Moscow ahead: From greater exposure to militant attacks to the prospect that Russia will suffer collateral damage in regional power battles, there are plenty of risks ahead for Moscow.

Getting a Bang for Its Buck

One of Russia's most notable achievements in Syria has been the outsized gains it has attained at a comparatively low cost. By contributing a force of around 5,000 personnel, most of whom have engaged in air support, advisory and special operations duties, Moscow (in conjunction with Tehran) has stabilized Syria's reeling government, restoring Damascus' dominance on the field against the country's rebels. This, in turn, has secured Russia's Syrian bases — which now include both a port and air bases — given it access to a number of commercial interests in the country, enhanced the global perception of its military prowess and paved the way for it to grab a larger diplomatic role in the region.

In the diplomatic realm, Russia extended its partnership with Iran, transformed a tense standoff with Turkey into a burgeoning relationship and became a critical regional player that Israel, Jordan and (albeit to a lesser direct extent) Iraq and Saudi Arabia can scarcely ignore. What's more, it finally forced the United States to engage in extensive negotiations over regional concerns, including talks to eliminate chemical weapons in Syria, at a time when the United States and other Western powers were punishing the Kremlin over its annexation of Crimea and Moscow's other moves in Europe.