Three out of the four Oscar acting races remain tossups as we near the finish line

This year’s acting categories at the Oscars remain a huge question mark mere days from the ceremony. For the first time since 1998, none of the four acting winners at BAFTA or SAG matched each other, making the races all the harder to predict since they both share a large percentage of academy voters. The BAFTAs were actually held after the Oscar ceremony in ’98, and it didn’t become a precursor until 2001, so we are truly in uncharted territory.

So, which of the winners will triumph at the Oscars? Let’s break down all the four acting categories and analyze what may work in the nominees’ favor to determine who will take home Oscar gold on Sunday.

Best Actor: The winner of this category has gone back and forth throughout the precursors. Since the beginning of the season, there has always been a comeback narrative with Brendan Fraser after his heartbreaking performance in “The Whale,” but Austin Butler has been on his tail throughout awards season, finally securing an industry award with BAFTA for portraying famed rock-and-roll singer Elvis Presley in “Elvis.” He certainly has history on his side as seven of the last ten Best Actor winners won for playing real-life and well-known individuals. But with Fraser pulling off the SAG win against Butler, his momentum is back and this category also loves rewarding career achievements, especially as he has been so vocal about his struggles, which can garner a lot more sympathy towards him. Butler currently leads with 7/2 odds, with “Elvis” having much more support in nominations at the Oscars, but Fraser isn’t far behind at 71/20.

Best Actress: It seemed like Cate Blanchett was going to be the only actor to steamroll through this entire awards season, winning all the major precursor awards including BAFTA. Then SAG happened, and Michelle Yeoh pulled it right out from under her. Just like Fraser, Yeoh definitely has more of a career narrative, being the first Asian-American woman to be nominated in this category and thus would be the first to win. She also has the Best Picture frontrunner in “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” for which the love was evident at the SAG Awards. Jamie Lee Curtis singled Yeoh out in the most clear, complimentary fashion in her speech that involved the whole room. It’s also true that Blanchett is already a two-time Oscar winner and hardly viewed as an underdog, and there are many who agree that her performance in “Tár” is the best of her career. That may be enough for her as it was for Anthony Hopkins two years ago for “The Father.” Yeoh is now the frontrunner with 10/3 odds, but never underestimate Blanchett, who has 18/5.

Best Supporting Actress: In perhaps the most shocking win on the film side at the SAG Awards, Curtis is now in the running for the Oscar in this category after pulling off an upset against BAFTA winner Kerry Condon for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Curtis’s win proves that there is massive support for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” that could easily propel her to the Oscars if the passion is that strong. Aside from that, Curtis has been campaigning hard for this movie since the beginning and has an energy that was shown in her winning speech. Additionally, she is a veteran actress who has had a long career in film and television, which the SAG Awards love to reward.

However, Condon does have the BAFTA on her side, which shares more association with academy voters, and it could be argued that she has a much longer and more dominant presence with her role in “Banshees” than Curtis, who also shares the Oscar category with her co-star Stephanie Hsu. That could cause some vote splitting. And we still can’t discount Angela Bassett for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” another veteran actress who has won the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award, and currently leads the odds with 71/20, followed by Condon with 37/10 and Curtis with 19/5.

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