Dartmouth Study Claims Climate Change Leading To More MLB Home Runs

There has been a sharp increase in home runs in Major League Baseball since 1980, and the rise in global temperature could be the reason behind it.

Researchers from Dartmouth College published a paper Friday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled “Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime.”

The increase in homers, particularly in non-dome stadiums, can be attributed to global climate change due to reduced air density. More than 500 home run since 2010 can be attributed to “historical warming.” The effect is seen most in day games than in night games.

“A 1-°C increase in the daily high temperature on the day of a baseball game played in a stadium without a dome increases the number of home runs in that game by 1.96%,” the researchers wrote. “The effect is larger (2.4%) for games played in the early afternoon when temperatures are highest and smaller (1.7%) for games played in the evening when temperatures are milder.”

The researches isolated multiple variables, such as performance-enhancing drugs, better training etc., and utilized as much data as they could, like Statcast, to help their findings. They predicted that as global temperatures increase, the more home runs likely will be found.

“Each degree of global warming is associated with an additional (approximate) 95 home runs per baseball season,” the researchers wrote. “… Warming associated with a high-emissions pathway results in an additional 192 home runs per year by 2050 and an additional 467 by 2100, almost a 10% increase relative to 2000-2019.”

Red Sox manager Alex Cora admitted he was stunned to see the high home-run totals at Fenway Park at the start of the 2023 season — Boston’s first three games of the season were day games.

Dartmouth researchers estimated what effect climate change mitigation would have on MLB’s home run totals.

“Mitigation reduces these effects: Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would avoid an additional 1,865 home runs cumulatively. … In the absence of mitigation, MLB could adapt to limit warming’s effects on home runs. Converting all day games into night games, for example, reduces exposure to daily high temperatures.”

The effects of global climate change is not present for everyone, but it is and has had an effect on millions across the world over time. This study could help motivate those who want to see less home runs help out in mitigating climate change and even those content with the amount of dingers should help ensure a better future for the world and the game of baseball.

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