Elias Diaz proved that betting on MLB All-Star Game MVP is all about the reserves
Elías Díaz was the only member of the Colorado Rockies on the National League All-Star roster and the third catcher behind starter Sean Murphy and Will Smith.
He didn’t enter Tuesday night’s exhibition against the American League in Seattle until both backstops ahead of him took two plate appearances each. When Díaz did step up to the batter’s box in the eighth inning, it was to face Baltimore Orioles closer Felix Bautista with one on and no outs in a game the NL trailed 2-1.
This wasn’t the NL waving a white flag in the All-Star Game by any means, but expectations had to be limited a bit for the 32-year-old veteran. And then he did the improbable.
Díaz took Bautista deep to left field and out for a majestic home run that gave the NL a 3-2 lead it wouldn’t squander as the American League’s nine-game win streak came to an end.
Elias Díaz just flipped this #AllStarGame on its head! pic.twitter.com/a676EZsZ53
— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2023
Of course, Díaz won MVP after his heroics and most everyone who bet on that outcome couldn’t believe it. Díaz was +6500 at DraftKings — tied for the longest odds to win MVP with George Kirby, Whit Merrifield and Dansby Swanson. He had much worse odds at other books.
Only Shane Bieber’s 2019 ASG MVP win carried longer odds (+10000) since 2018. The lesson here for bettors isn’t necessarily to bank on long-shots winning — though it does seem worth it to sprinkle a few small units on them — but to avoid betting on All-Star starters altogether when it comes to MVP.
MLB #AllStarGame MVP betting at @BetMGM
Favorites
Shohei Ohtani +750
Ronald Acuna Jr. +950
Mookie Betts +1200Highest Ticket%
Acuna Jr. 13.9%
Julio Rodriguez (+2000) 12.5%
Ohtani 10.9%Highest Handle%
Acuna Jr. 20.4%
J-Rod 13.3%
Nolan Arenado 11.2%— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 11, 2023
Only two of the last six ASG MVPs dating back to 2017 were starters for their respective teams, Giancarlo Stanton in 2022 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021. The other MVPs were Robinson Cano (2017), Alex Bregman (2018), Bieber (2019) and Díaz on Tuesday night.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising we’re seeing this trend start in 2017 — the year MLB stopped letting the game determine which league gets home-field advantage in the World Series. In the five years before then, four ASG MVP-winners were starters.
It’s not that the starters don’t have a chance to win the award. But the way the game is managed now, with an emphasis on getting appearances for as many players as possible and leaning into the exhibition-ness of it all, it makes sense the players who are more likely to enter the game in the later innings have a chance to do something as special as Díaz’s home run.
The reserves are the ones called upon in the clutch moments. The guys who have the pressure to secure a win after the starters have had their fun. That’s the edge going forward. Or at least until MLB changes the All-Star Game format for the umpteenth time.
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