RWC 2023 Bold & Controversial Predictions
So, admittedly as a reaction to being sick of reading all the armchair experts pontificating about the Wallabies, I thought this might be a good place to look at the wider RWC Tournament. Keep in mind that a RWC is unlike a regular season, it is a Tournament with consecutive matches against a wide ranging skill set of opposition.
As per the heading, let's hear your bold and controversial predictions!
I will throw in the following two (I am suffering a little de ja vu as to if this was going around about a year ago when I dropped in anonymously, apologies if it similar!)-
1. The "best team in the World" may not make it beyond the Quarter Finals
So, similar to the scenario around the Wallabies doing a Bradbury to make it to the Semi's or even Final, there is an argument around another All Blacks choke or Host demise. Hear me out.
Pool A
New Zealand and France open the Tournament with what should be a spectacular match, we all know the reasons why, it'll be like two bulls going at it. There will likely be a couple of casualties. However, from there both have relatively easy (in terms of results) fixtures against Italy, Namibia and Uruguay. They will, however, not be easy matches physically and quite likely injuries will occur in less structured and "big bodied" opposition. Inevitably the respective Coaches will have to make compromises around playing their stars after the opening match, balancing continuity with exposure. This is the true nature and variability of Tournament play. Additionally, what preparation benefit for the Finals comes from another +90-0 over Namibia, +40-5 over Uruguay or +25-9 over Italy? So, following the narrative, New Zealand and France reach the Quarter Finals in 3rd gear and a bit over confident and under done.
Pool B
Meanwhile, joint Pool favourites Ireland (Romania & Tonga) and South Africa (Scotland & Romania) get to warm up with hard but expected to win rounds. They will need to be fully focused and picking near full capacity Squads each match ahead of the major 3rd Round meeting. After their fixture Ireland finish with Scotland (a known and respected opponent) and South Africa v Tonga (as we all know a roughy but damn hard hitting and deserving of respect). Yes, as per Pool A, there could easily be injuries, however, both teams will be under no false allusions as to where the Tournament is at.
Quarter Finals 1/2-
You can choose your own Pool placings, but fairly comfortable that New Zealand or France will play Ireland or South Africa.
Without rehashing the above argument, I would add that around about now the pressure of a Home RWC will be starting to mount on France, particularly if they did go down to NZ in Round 1. Whatever the combination of opponents, these will be two scintillating fixtures and the common school of thought would be one of the four would go on to win Bill. However, there will also be two high profile hopefuls that will exit. It is quite feasible that South Africa or Ireland could beat New Zealand at a neutral ground. It is quite feasible that France could implode under the pressure to perform.
My tip-
Ireland d New Zealand
South Africa d France
Ireland d South Africa
2. Wallabies "Bradbury MkII"
Yes, there are many Australian fans in hysterics about the standard of the Wallabies at this point. It would be easy to go down that path, but to seriously suggest, under normal playing circumstances that the Wallabies can't at least reach the Quarter finals is pretty dumb. Yes, there are avenues for that to happen (injuries, Red Cards, rain), but it isn't the likely scenario in a World Cup environment.
If you follow the progression of matches it is the ideal scenario given the short lead in for Coach Jones & the Squad.
More than likely they will have a similar result this weekend in Dunedin, so be it. The Bledisloe is gone and there are bigger fish to fry.
Likewise, a win against France in the friendly (is there ever such a thing?) would be desirable, but counts for little if the Squad is engaged with Eddies Plan.
Round 1- v Georgia
A great opening fixture with little fanfare against a hard hitting and respected opposition. I love Georgia for the traditional approaches they have to this great code, but there is no upset here. The only potential risk is of key injuries.
Round 2- v Fiji
A suitable step up in the progression against a largely known and well respected opposition. We know their style, their strengths and their weaknesses. It will be hard, it will be energy sapping and it will be an ideal winning preparation for Wales.
Round 3- v Wales
Clearly the Match of the Pool for the Wallabies and for Wales. A long term foe that are not at their finest in 2023. They will be better, as will all teams, in the RWC than leading in, but Australia should be Evens or better for the result. Wales will have faced a fresh Fiji (Round 1) and the junior Portugal (Round 2) in a mixed lead up to Round 3.
Round 4- v Portugal
Portugal are plucky bastards and awesome to watch. They believe they can be #1 and play with that confidence. Unfortunately the reality is that might be a decade or four away. Following Wales, regardless of result, the Wallabies get a live training environment to work out any glitches. I would expect this to be the 1st XV for the rest of the journey allowing for any injuries or exposed selections against Wales.
For mine-
Pool C
1. Australia
2. Wales (Though delighted if Fiji make it)
Meanwhile, without the same level of description of fixtures, I'd say whoever wins the first match (England v Argentina) will win the Pool, with the loser going on to be second. I believe being the first match will ultimately favour England, so-
Pool D
1. England
2. Argentina (A Tournament too soon for Japan)
Quarter Final 3/4
Following the script, we will see-
QF3- Australia v Argentina
QF4- England v Wales
Given the aforementioned hysterics currently prevailing, I would rate this as a pass mark for the Wallabies.
Not great, but beating many expectations.
I believe from there we will see them progress.
The Eddie Factor comes into play against his old Squad. He has a far greater knowledge of England than England have over the Wallabies. There are so many variables after seven matches from now that it is into dart throwing territory, but it isn't unfeasible for Australia to beat England at that stage. Likewise, if Argentina were the Semi opponent we have them covered in the RWC environment. Yes, they recently beat us and all the rest, but at this stage of the Tournament it is a different fish.
Unfortunately, I think that will likely be the end for either SF team further winning, with the winner losing the Final and the loser going on to lose the Bronze Match, but stranger things have happened. Keep in mind the vastly harder route the SF1 contenders will have traveled and the impact on the depth of the Squads. Whoever makes the Final from the top half of the draw will be running on empty and ripe for an upset.
My tip- Ireland d England
But, who knows, there is a pathway for Australia to celebrate a second Bradbury.
Dare to dream, dare to support!
As per the heading, let's hear your bold and controversial predictions!
I will throw in the following two (I am suffering a little de ja vu as to if this was going around about a year ago when I dropped in anonymously, apologies if it similar!)-
1. The "best team in the World" may not make it beyond the Quarter Finals
So, similar to the scenario around the Wallabies doing a Bradbury to make it to the Semi's or even Final, there is an argument around another All Blacks choke or Host demise. Hear me out.
Pool A
New Zealand and France open the Tournament with what should be a spectacular match, we all know the reasons why, it'll be like two bulls going at it. There will likely be a couple of casualties. However, from there both have relatively easy (in terms of results) fixtures against Italy, Namibia and Uruguay. They will, however, not be easy matches physically and quite likely injuries will occur in less structured and "big bodied" opposition. Inevitably the respective Coaches will have to make compromises around playing their stars after the opening match, balancing continuity with exposure. This is the true nature and variability of Tournament play. Additionally, what preparation benefit for the Finals comes from another +90-0 over Namibia, +40-5 over Uruguay or +25-9 over Italy? So, following the narrative, New Zealand and France reach the Quarter Finals in 3rd gear and a bit over confident and under done.
Pool B
Meanwhile, joint Pool favourites Ireland (Romania & Tonga) and South Africa (Scotland & Romania) get to warm up with hard but expected to win rounds. They will need to be fully focused and picking near full capacity Squads each match ahead of the major 3rd Round meeting. After their fixture Ireland finish with Scotland (a known and respected opponent) and South Africa v Tonga (as we all know a roughy but damn hard hitting and deserving of respect). Yes, as per Pool A, there could easily be injuries, however, both teams will be under no false allusions as to where the Tournament is at.
Quarter Finals 1/2-
You can choose your own Pool placings, but fairly comfortable that New Zealand or France will play Ireland or South Africa.
Without rehashing the above argument, I would add that around about now the pressure of a Home RWC will be starting to mount on France, particularly if they did go down to NZ in Round 1. Whatever the combination of opponents, these will be two scintillating fixtures and the common school of thought would be one of the four would go on to win Bill. However, there will also be two high profile hopefuls that will exit. It is quite feasible that South Africa or Ireland could beat New Zealand at a neutral ground. It is quite feasible that France could implode under the pressure to perform.
My tip-
Ireland d New Zealand
South Africa d France
Ireland d South Africa
2. Wallabies "Bradbury MkII"
Yes, there are many Australian fans in hysterics about the standard of the Wallabies at this point. It would be easy to go down that path, but to seriously suggest, under normal playing circumstances that the Wallabies can't at least reach the Quarter finals is pretty dumb. Yes, there are avenues for that to happen (injuries, Red Cards, rain), but it isn't the likely scenario in a World Cup environment.
If you follow the progression of matches it is the ideal scenario given the short lead in for Coach Jones & the Squad.
More than likely they will have a similar result this weekend in Dunedin, so be it. The Bledisloe is gone and there are bigger fish to fry.
Likewise, a win against France in the friendly (is there ever such a thing?) would be desirable, but counts for little if the Squad is engaged with Eddies Plan.
Round 1- v Georgia
A great opening fixture with little fanfare against a hard hitting and respected opposition. I love Georgia for the traditional approaches they have to this great code, but there is no upset here. The only potential risk is of key injuries.
Round 2- v Fiji
A suitable step up in the progression against a largely known and well respected opposition. We know their style, their strengths and their weaknesses. It will be hard, it will be energy sapping and it will be an ideal winning preparation for Wales.
Round 3- v Wales
Clearly the Match of the Pool for the Wallabies and for Wales. A long term foe that are not at their finest in 2023. They will be better, as will all teams, in the RWC than leading in, but Australia should be Evens or better for the result. Wales will have faced a fresh Fiji (Round 1) and the junior Portugal (Round 2) in a mixed lead up to Round 3.
Round 4- v Portugal
Portugal are plucky bastards and awesome to watch. They believe they can be #1 and play with that confidence. Unfortunately the reality is that might be a decade or four away. Following Wales, regardless of result, the Wallabies get a live training environment to work out any glitches. I would expect this to be the 1st XV for the rest of the journey allowing for any injuries or exposed selections against Wales.
For mine-
Pool C
1. Australia
2. Wales (Though delighted if Fiji make it)
Meanwhile, without the same level of description of fixtures, I'd say whoever wins the first match (England v Argentina) will win the Pool, with the loser going on to be second. I believe being the first match will ultimately favour England, so-
Pool D
1. England
2. Argentina (A Tournament too soon for Japan)
Quarter Final 3/4
Following the script, we will see-
QF3- Australia v Argentina
QF4- England v Wales
Given the aforementioned hysterics currently prevailing, I would rate this as a pass mark for the Wallabies.
Not great, but beating many expectations.
I believe from there we will see them progress.
The Eddie Factor comes into play against his old Squad. He has a far greater knowledge of England than England have over the Wallabies. There are so many variables after seven matches from now that it is into dart throwing territory, but it isn't unfeasible for Australia to beat England at that stage. Likewise, if Argentina were the Semi opponent we have them covered in the RWC environment. Yes, they recently beat us and all the rest, but at this stage of the Tournament it is a different fish.
Unfortunately, I think that will likely be the end for either SF team further winning, with the winner losing the Final and the loser going on to lose the Bronze Match, but stranger things have happened. Keep in mind the vastly harder route the SF1 contenders will have traveled and the impact on the depth of the Squads. Whoever makes the Final from the top half of the draw will be running on empty and ripe for an upset.
My tip- Ireland d England
But, who knows, there is a pathway for Australia to celebrate a second Bradbury.
Dare to dream, dare to support!