Strengthening Idalia forecast as Category 2 hurricane for Florida landfall this week; DeSantis urges caution

Tropical Storm Idalia formed Sunday morning and then saw its maximum sustained winds jump up from 45 mph to 60 mph in the 11 p.m. Sunday advisory, with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast having it make landfall this week along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a hurricane. The forecast prompted Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency for 33 counties.

Idalia (pronounced ee-DAHL-ya) is expected to be Hurricane Idalia by Monday night ahead of a projected Florida landfall, forecasters said.

At a briefing Sunday afternoon, DeSantis warned that though the mostly likely path at this point seems to be headed to the Big Bend region of Florida. “This stuff can change. We’ve had storms hit outside the cone. If you’re in Tampa Bay you could have major impacts … People from Tampa to Bay County you should be vigilant.”

He said the storm could be a Category 2 storm by the time it makes landfall. The forecast path has the storm curling north toward Florida’s Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday.

“If you are in the path of this storm, you should expect power outages, so please prepare for that,” DeSantis said.

Kevin Guthrie, director of Florida Division of Emergency Management, added that Floridians who are medically-dependent or have special needs should be particularly aware of the likelihood of power outages, and can receive help at Floridadisaster.org/snr.

Floridians can also get supply-kit info at Floridadisaster.org/kit.

Guthrie reiterated that Hurricane Ian last year proved that storm surge kills, and that evacuating a small distance inland or away from an impact zone can make a difference.

On Sunday afternoon, the storm turned north toward the Gulf. There will be a “window” while the system is in the Gulf that may be conducive to it strengthening, said Nick Carr, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Miami, but it remains unclear how strong it could become.

The most current National Hurricane Center forecast discussion predicts top winds could reach 100 mph, making it potentially a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Major hurricanes are classified as Category 3 and above.

MORE: Will Hurricane Idalia hit Tampa and St. Petersburg? Here’s the latest forecast track

The NHC forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season. Hurricane Franklin, now a high-end Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph maximum sustained winds, was located less than 530 miles southwest of Bermuda as of 11 p.m. Sunday, and forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday. It would be the season’s first major hurricane.

The state of emergency for Tropical Storm Idalia does not currently include Broward, Palm Beach or Miami-Dade counties.

But South Florida could start seeing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions beginning Monday and continuing through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service Miami.

The Tampa area could see tropical force winds as early as Tuesday morning. The storm could also coincide with South Florida’s king tides next week, adding to already elevated tides and making flooding more likely, Carr said.

As of 11 p.m. Sunday, Idalia was stationary, located about 145 miles south of the western tip of Cuba. Little movement had been expected through Sunday, before a slow northward motion is anticipated to begin Monday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

The NHC has issued these watches and warnings for Florida:

• A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
• A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
• A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas and the lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

The storm “is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters wrote, “bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.”

Sections of Florida’s west coast could experience flooding. The 33 counties included in the state of emergency are Alachua, Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, and Wakulla Counties.

At the press conference Sunday afternoon, DeSantis said that the state was mobilizing 1,100 National Guardsman with 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft at their disposal for rescue and recovery efforts.

Guthrie also address a fuel contamination issue at the Port of Tampa resulting in fuel contaminated with diesel fuel being shipped to gas stations in the Tampa area.

“I’d like to assure Floridians that we are coordinating here at the EOC with everyone from petroleum retailers to the ports themselves to ensure that the disruption will not be widespread or prolonged and that residents can have seamless access to fuel.”

There is concern over the contamination occurring as residents fuel up their cars and generators in anticipation of the storm.

” Any fuel purchased after 10:00 a.m. on Saturday August 27, at stations supplied by Citgo from the Port of Tampa has a strong likelihood of being contaminated with diesel fuel,” said a release from the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

The Governor’s reminders to be prepared come just as the state opens its second “sales tax holiday” of the year for hurricane-related supplies. Florida’s “disaster preparedness” tax holiday continues through Sept. 8.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for extreme western Cuba, including the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Heavy rains are likely over western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, forecasters said. Parts of the eastern Yucatan could receive 2 to 6 inches of rain, while Western Cuba could receive 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas getting soaked with up to 10 inches.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin, now a Category 2 storm, is forecast to “rapidly intensify into a major hurricane,” meaning Category 3 or above, by Sunday night, according to the latest outlook. The storm is expected to move to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.

A disturbance located about 1,000 miles from Bermuda was no longer expected to develop, forecasters said early Sunday. They are monitoring a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa and over the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

The next storm to form would be Jose.