Alabama Can Expect Confidence and Winning From New Head Coach Kalen DeBoer

Kalen DeBoer comes across as a salt-of-the-earth South Dakotan, even-keel and understated in demeanor. But the move he made Friday reveals a man with the self-confidence of Tom Cruise in a starring role.

The 49-year-old DeBoer is willing to leave the warm embrace of the Washington Huskies, where he just authored one of the finest seasons in school history and could probably be Coach For Life, or something near it. He chose instead to run toward what might be the most daunting task in college football history.

DeBoer is replacing seven-time national champion Nick Saban, a massive undertaking for anyone—let alone a guy who has no history with the school or the region. He is moving from a passionate but rational fan base to one that is … unacquainted with rationality. He is relocating to Alabama and the Southeastern Conference, terra incognita for a coach who has spent his life in the West and Midwest. The only game he appears to have been part of in the state of Alabama was a 41–10 loss to the Crimson Tide as the offensive coordinator at Fresno State in 2017.

Wait until he sees the larger-than-life Saban statue outside Bryant-Denny Stadium. The reality check is coming.

Then again, this is a guy who signed off on going for a fourth-and-1 on his own 29-yard line with 1:14 left in a tie game against Washington State, when failure on that play could have ruined a perfect season. He’s clearly not afraid of a huge gamble, and in this instance, he is betting on himself. He’s willing to dive into a new adventure that comes with considerable upside and considerable risk.

(If you want to read further into it, DeBoer taking the Alabama job might say something about what will happen at Michigan—and maybe about Washington’s future in the Big Ten. DeBoer was believed to have interest in the Wolverines if that job comes open. This could indicate that either Jim Harbaugh is believed to be staying put or he will be replaced internally by offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore. As for the Huskies, changing leagues and taking on a massive geographic challenge might have made following Saban look more palatable.)

Will DeBoer work at Alabama? Like, really work, to the tune of national championships? That’s the expectation at Bama, and Saban spoiled them by doing it six times in 17 seasons.

Nobody knows if it will work. But there are reasons to be optimistic today if you’re an Alabama fan.

Related: Order Your Michigan Wolverines National Championship Commemorative Issue

Start with the fact DeBoer is a lifetime winner. His career record as a head coach is 104–12, a .897 winning percentage. Saban’s winning percentage as a college head coach is .802. While Saban has those seven national titles, DeBoer has three and played for two more.

Yeah, OK, four of those title-game appearances were at the NAIA level, at the University of Sioux Falls. But that’s a level that often reveals true coaching, where the talent is largely the same and scheme can make a big difference. And the fifth one was earlier this week, when DeBoer’s 14–0 Huskies were beaten by Michigan for the College Football Playoff championship.

As gaudy as DeBoer’s 67–3 record is at Sioux Falls, he’s also won at Fresno State (12–6) and Washington (25–3). What he and his staff do translates. It’s been a universally successful football formula.

DeBoer’s offenses move the ball and score points. They aren’t just entertaining, they’re efficient. When Washington hung 37 points and 532 yards on Texas in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, that had to resonate with Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne, who saw the Longhorns hold the Crimson Tide to 24 points and 362 yards in September.

It’s an offense DeBoer should have no problem recruiting to at Alabama, though he likely will have to add some staffers who know the SEC terrain. Culture and scheme travel, but relationships, regional knowledge and fierce competitiveness matter in recruiting—nowhere more than in the brass-knuckles South. That figures to be the biggest learning curve.

But the head coach doesn’t have to be a Waffle House lifer to succeed in the SEC. Saban was the proof, a West Virginian who did most of his coaching in the Midwest before moving to LSU and revealing himself to be a genius on the rise. Urban Meyer was a Midwesterner who spent two years at Utah before relocating to Florida and winning two titles. Brian Kelly and his fake Louisiana accent won the SEC West in his first season in Baton Rouge.

The man doing the hiring, Byrne, knows the Pacific Northwest can translate to the deep South. Byrne went to high school in Oregon. His first eight years in athletic administration were spent at Oregon and Oregon State before moving to the SEC—first at Kentucky, then Mississippi State and finally Alabama after a stint at Arizona.

Byrne likely worked through large portions of the Jimmy Sexton Rolodex in landing on DeBoer. Sexton clients were getting raises all over America this week as they professed their commitments to their current jobs on social media. Maybe they were happy to stay put in good jobs instead of risking being the man who follows The Man.

History is sobering on that front. Gene Bartow replaced John Wooden at UCLA and went 52–9, making one Final Four, but he left after two seasons in that thankless position following a 10-time national champion. Bill Guthridge replaced Dean Smith at North Carolina and went to two Final Fours but lasted only three seasons. Ray Perkins went 32–15–1 at Alabama—not a bad record, unless you’re replacing Bear Bryant.

Alabama has everything necessary to continue winning forever—but it’s not automatic. Mike Shula happened, and Mike DuBose, and Dennis Franchione, and Perkins. The Crimson Tide have spent some time in the wilderness.

But DeBoer arrives with nearly as much street cred as Saban had when he was hired in 2007. Saban won a national title at LSU; DeBoer came close at Washington. Closer, in fact, than presumptive Alabama candidates Mike Norvell, Steve Sarkisian and Dan Lanning have to date.

National championships are the standard at Alabama, and Kalen DeBoer clearly believes he can do it there. DeBoer seems to have the requisite confidence to undertake the most daunting succession plan in college football history.