‘Barbie’ could follow in Oscars footsteps of ‘Black Panther’

“Barbie” and “Black Panther” have followed similar awards trajectories. Neither is a conventional Oscar movie — they’re based on a line of toys and a Marvel superhero, respectively — but they both opened to rave reviews and stupendous box office. They also both earned Best Picture nominations, and when all is said and done they could end up with almost the exact same wins.

Despite high-profile snubs of director Greta Gerwig and lead actress Margot Robbie, “Barbie” actually did markedly better in the nominations than “Black Panther.” “Barbie” got eight bids compared to “Panther’s” seven. And “Barbie” made the cut in acting and writing categories, where “Panther” was notably excluded. While “Panther” was too great a cultural phenomenon to ignore in the top category, the academy was apparently still reluctant to take a superhero movie seriously anywhere else but below-the-line races.

But “Panther” was redeemed in the end. It didn’t win Best Picture, but it still claimed three awards: Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter, the first Black winner in the category’s history), Best Production Design (Hannah Beachler, also the first Black winner in the category’s history) and Best Original Score (Lugwig Göransson). As luck would have it, “Barbie” could win in the same three fields: costume design, production design and music.

As of this writing “Barbie” is the front-runner for Best Costume Design based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, though it appears to be in a neck-and-neck race against “Poor Things.” Those two films are also locked in a close battle for Best Production Design, but “Barbie” gets best odds there too. The music category is arguably the safest bet for “Barbie.” It’s nominated twice for Best Original Song, for “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken,” and those are the top two contenders in the category by a wide margin, with Billie Eilish and Finneas‘s “What Was I Made For?” having the advantage.

Do you agree with our odds that “Barbie” will win three Oscars similar to “Black Panther”? And will it open the door wider so that the next populist blockbuster actually does score a Best Director nom? Time will tell about the latter, but we only have to wait until March 10 to answer the first question.