Economic worries don’t stop Black Friday spending in Bay Area

Crowds aren’t her favorite, but 80-year-old Dorene Luzzi of Redwood City wasn’t letting that stop her Black Friday shopping plans.

“It’s been a nightmare,” Luzzi said, gleeful as she showed off clothing deals she snagged for her family on Friday at Hillsdale Shopping Center in San Mateo.

Despite talk of the death of American malls due to online shopping and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Peninsula center was full of life, with children climbing on the outdoor playground and every table in the food court packed.

For many Bay Area consumers, the holiday season is a balancing act: navigating rising costs and economic uncertainty while still enjoying the rituals and joy of gift shopping.

Rachel Michelin, president of the California Retailers Association, said shoppers are embracing both the convenience of online buying and the tradition of in-person browsing.

“Going to in-person shopping, especially on Black Friday, is not just about buying something. It’s about the experience — seeing the decorations, hearing the music, spending time with family and friends,” Michelin told this news organization. “But the reality is, I’ll also be the one who wants to beat the crowds and find a couple of deals online. It’s truly a mix.”

With the rise of online shopping, Black Friday is now followed by Cyber Monday, when retailers typically roll out their best online deals. So far this year, online spending has been strong.

From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, U.S. consumers spent $79.7 billion shopping online — a 7.5% increase from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday sales in November and December will grow 3.7% to 4.2% nationwide this year, topping $1 trillion. Last year, sales rose 4.3% over 2023, reaching $976.1 billion.

Still, Michelin said retailers remain “cautiously optimistic” as they navigate high business costs, tariffs, and shifting consumer habits.

“The things that retailers did to prepare for this will really benefit consumers in the end,” she said. “We might have a different conversation in January or February, but for right now, that is our feeling.”

Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, said strong consumer spending isn’t necessarily a sign of a healthy economy.

He called California’s economy “dreary,” pointing to a widening gap between affluent households and everyone else, along with a weak job market.

“It’s certainly not historically a good economic backdrop for Black Friday,” Levy said. “Higher-income households are protected from those factors and are spending fairly strongly. Everybody else is affected by rents rising relative to income and prices going up. So most people are under economic pressure.”

That nuanced awareness of the economy is reflected in the South Bay, where cautious optimism prevails.

“There is uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the cost of doing business in Silicon Valley,” San Jose Chamber of Commerce President Leah Toeniskoetter said. “But consumers are still spending, and retailers are better prepared than last year, which gives the season a more hopeful tone.”

Nancy Warnick, 71, of Redwood City, was shopping alone at Hillsdale Shopping Center — and for herself — snapping up discounts at Macy’s, before planning stops at Vans and T.J. Maxx for her sons and grandchildren.

“Everything sucks, but it’s not stopping me,” she said.

A mix of holiday cheer and economic caution was also on the mind of Megan Bay, 41, of Oakland, who spent a slow morning strolling College Avenue in Berkeley the day after Thanksgiving with her mother, Kathy Rogers.

The pair had picked up an art set for Bay’s 6-year-old son, Gordie, at Five Little Monkeys, just up the street from Village Shoes, where Bay snagged new tennis shoes for her 18-month-old, Joni, balancing on her hip.

While most of her shopping this past year was through Facebook groups, Bay said she tries to browse local independent retailers for special occasions like birthdays and Christmas. She also participated in the “Mass Blackout,” an Instagram campaign encouraging shoppers to avoid big corporations between Nov. 28 and Dec. 5.

“Part of it is about not wanting to support big corporations — wanting to shop local and uplift small businesses,” Bay said. “Another huge aspect is really not having much money right now — barely making ends meet. It’s stressful, but there’s a part where I feel like we’re all in this together.”

In East San Jose, where there is a large immigrant population, “the confidence has been shaken by recent ICE raids, adding another layer of pressure on businesses that already operate on thin margins,” Toeniskoetter said.

The policies have sparked a nationwide “We Ain’t Buying It” campaign calling for an economic boycott of corporations such as Target for “caving to this administration’s biased attacks on DEI” and Home Depot “for allowing and colluding with ICE to kidnap our neighbors on their properties,” according to the campaign website.

Michael McBride, lead pastor of The Way Christian Center in Berkeley and a Bay Area organizer for the boycott, said the effort sends a clear message to corporations that they must support the communities they profit from.

“Every corporation that supports this administration is demonstrating they don’t support the people. If you don’t support the people, then why should the people shop in your stores?” McBride said. “Why should the people continue to make you a billionaire when you can’t help us have food on our plates and health care?”

McBride cited the historical impact of boycotts on social change.

“The history of civil rights and human rights in this country — and dare I say around the world — has utilized economic interruptions and boycotts to force corporate and money interests to prioritize the well-being of the people, not their profits,” he said.