The Boxing Junkie Analysis: Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III

Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will meet for a third time in a pay-per-view fight Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The elite heavyweights fought to a draw in December 2018 and Fury, using uncharacteristic aggressive tactics, stopped Wilder in seven rounds to take his title in February of last year.

That was the last time both men have been in the ring.

What will the third fight look like? Will Fury simply pick up where he left off? Or will Wilder have made adjustments that will allow him to turn to the tables on his English rival?

Here is a breakdown of the fight.

TYSON FURY (30-0-1, 21 KOs)
VS. DEONTAY WILDER (42-1-1, 41 KOs)

Date: Saturday, Oct. 9
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV: Pay-per-view
Division: Heavyweight
At stake: Fury’s WBC title
Current win streak: Fury 3, Wilder 0
Ages: Fury 33, Wilder 35
Stances: Fury orthodox, Wilder orthodox
Trajectory: Fury at peak, Wilder beginning decline
Also fighting: Efe Ajagba vs. Frank Sanchez, heavyweights; Robert Helenius vs. Adam Kownacki, heavyweights; Edgar Berlanga vs. Marcelo Esteban Coceres, super middleweights; Julian Williams vs. Vladimir Hernandez, junior middleweights
Worth watching (up to five stars)? * * * *

SKILL SET

Fury
Fury is a remarkable boxer, particularly for a man who is 6 feet, 9 inches. He has a complete set of skills and the ring acumen to call upon any of them when the time is right, including defensive moves that make him difficult to hit cleanly. And he demonstrated his versatility by changing his tactics in his second fight with Wilder – using his size to smother the big puncher – to deliver a dominating performance. No active heavyweight can match his skillset.

Wilder
Conventional thinking is that Wilder is a one-trick pony, relying almost entirely on his powerful right hand to win fights. That notion is exaggerated. Wilder is not a great boxer but he’s a solid one, which has allowed him to set up and then land that fight-changing right hand in almost all of his fights. That takes ability. The problem he has with Fury is that the Englishman is far better than anyone else he has fought.

Edge: Fury

PUNCHING POWER

Fury
Fury is by nature a boxer, not a puncher. However, he demonstrated in awesome fashion in his second fight with Wilder that a man with his combination of ability and size – he weighed 273 pounds, 42 more than Wilder – can do significant damage at the highest level.

Wilder
We can debate where Wilder’s one-punch power ranks in boxing history but we can agree that he’s one of the most-dangerous punchers ever. Forty-one knockouts in 42 victories speak loudly. Twenty of those knockouts have come in the first round. Indeed, we have rarely seen the likes of his missile-like right hand, which can end any fight at any time.

Edge: Wilder

EXPERIENCE

Fury
Fury had a reported 35 amateur fights and has fought only 31 times as a pro, which gives him a total of 66 organized fights in his life. That’s not many, at least compared to other top fighters. At the same time, he has been fighting at an elite level and in big events for about a decade. It’s safe to call him a seasoned veteran.

Wilder
Wilder has a similar background to that of Fury. He also had a reported 35 amateur fights, although he won a bronze medal in the 2008 Olympics. And he has had 44 pro fights. He hasn’t fought as many rounds as Fury – 193 to 150 – but he, too, has fought at the highest level for an extended period of time.

Edge: Even

DURABILITY

Fury
Fury demonstrated his resilience by rising from two knockdowns to earn a draw with Wilder in their first fight, including a bomb that probably would’ve stopped most heavyweights. Another example is his fight against Otto Wallin in 2019, when he fought through a gruesome cut and spirited challenge from Wallin to win a decision. Fury is a tough guy.

Wilder

Wilder showed us in his first fight against Luis Ortiz, who hurt him badly, that he can fight through adversity and turn things around. Even in his second fight with Fury he was taking a beating yet wanted to continue. Another tough guy.

Edge: Even

INTANGIBLES

Fury
Fury’s biggest advantage might a psychological edge. He not only defeated Wilder in their last meeting, he beat him up. He was both better and stronger than Wilder, which proved to be a devastating one-two punch. Wilder will be better prepared in this fight but he couldn’t possibly forget the helplessness, embarrassment and disappointment of being manhandled.

Wilder
Wilder is fighting for his professional life, which can be a powerful motivating factor. If he wins, he returns to the top of the sport. If he loses – particularly if he loses badly – he becomes just another heavyweight. He should be focused. Meanwhile, Fury has been there and done that. Could he possibly get up for this fight? And if not, could that work against him?

Edge: Fury

PREDICTION

Wilder will have had 19-plus months with new trainer Malik Scott and his team to make the adjustments necessary to be more competitive with Fury. One example: Wilder will use his feet to escape trouble and create space to throw his power punches, which he couldn’t do in the last fight. Such tactics should make the fight more competitive. That said, Fury is the better and bigger fighter, which is a big hill for Wilder to climb even if he’s better prepared. Fury demonstrated how to beat Wilder in their second fight: use his size advantage by crowding him and pounding away, which should be his approach to the third fight. And even if Wilder proves to be elusive, you can bet that Fury will have the wherewithal to make his own adjustments. I think Wilder might hear the final bell in this fight but he will lose by a wide decision.

Fury UD