Fantasy Football 2024: Scouting the Rookie Running Backs
Rookie running backs have long been desirable in fantasy drafts, but that trend has faded a bit in recent seasons. Just five have scored more than 240 PPR points in a single NFL season since 2019, while four others have hit the 200-point mark.
The best of the bunch was Najee Harris, who scored 300.7 points in 2021. That total would have been good enough to rank second among running backs in 2023.
This season’s rookie class does leave a lot to be desired, however. In fact, my pal Daniel Jeremiah at NFL Media doesn’t have a single runner in his list of the top 50 first-year prospects. That doesn’t mean we won’t have a rookie or two who will make an immediate impact, but landing spots are going to be more important than ever.
So, with Super Bowl LVIII in the rearview mirror and a very exciting offseason right ahead of us, let’s take a look at some of the best running back prospects you’ll need to know about when it comes time to prepare for dynasty and re-draft leagues.
Jonathon Brooks, Texas
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Brooks played behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in college, so he only had one season as the Longhorns’ top running back. In 11 games last season, he rushed for over 1,100 yards while also catching 25 passes and scoring a combined 11 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in November and missed the rest of the season. Obviously, much of his fantasy re-draft value will depend on how fast and well he is able to recover, but Brooks has three-down potential in the NFL.
Brooks is unlikely to be ready for the start of training camp with his eventual pro team, so his re-draft value is in some question. But for those in dynasty formats, he’s the running back to target as a potential long-term fantasy backfield selection.
NFL player comparison: Bijan Robinson
Trey Benson, Florida State
Benson is a physical runner at 6’1” and 223 pounds, rushing for more than six yards per attempt in his final two seasons at Florida State. He also rushed for 23 scores in his final 26 collegiate contests. Benson was also one of the top running backs in the nation at forced missed tackles in 2022, per PFF, and last season he was in the top 13 among running backs with at least 147 carries in terms of pass blocking. That will keep Benson on the field for all three downs at the next level.
Benson did suffer a multi-ligament knee tear while at Oregon, but that hasn’t had a negative impact in the following seasons. What’s more, he had no more than 156 carries in his final two years with the Seminoles, so his wear and tear is limited.
NFL player comparison: Josh Jacobs
Blake Corum, Michigan
Corum was a statistical machine while at Michigan, rushing for a combined 2,708 yards and 45 touchdowns in his final two seasons. During that time, he averaged more than five yards per attempt. Ranked 27th among running backs in total offense per PFF, Corum is also rated 22nd at the position for pass routes. While he isn’t very big at 5’8” and 213 pounds, he’s elusive and “twitchy” at the point of attack.
Corum did suffer a season-ending knee injury in 2022, and his lack of overall size and his age (he’ll be 24 in November) could make some teams shy away from him as a true featured back. Still, Corum could be a fantasy asset in the right system.
NFL player comparison: Kenneth Walker
Bucky Irving, Oregon
Irving is a smaller back at 5’10” and just 194 pounds, but we’ve seen runners with similar builds like Jahmyr Gibbs or De’Von Achane find success. As a result, Irving should have plenty of suitors. A spectacular pass catcher, he hauled in 56 catches in his final season with the Ducks. An elusive runner, he ran for 1,000-plus yards in each of his last two seasons while averaging over six yards per rush.
If there is a knock against Irving besides his lack of size, it’s his pass protection. He simply didn’t do a lot of it in college and when he did there was certainly a lot to be desired. That would hurt his ability to be a three-down back at the next level, but his pass-catching chops (fifth in FBS in pass routes, per PFF) will make him a PPR star.
NFL player comparison: De’Von Achane
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
The youngest running back in the 2024 NFL draft class, Allen, who just turned 20, is a beast at 6’2” and 238 pounds. He averaged 5.4 yards per rush in his final two years at Wisconsin, during which time he rushed for 23 touchdowns. Allen also put up 3.7 yards after contact in college, so he’s a real workhorse who many scouts will compare to Titans running back Derrick Henry, albeit a slightly smaller version.
Allen, despite his size, is a good pass catcher. However, he isn’t skilled as a route runner and is probably better utilized on screens in the pass attack. He’ll be a great fit for an NFL team that likes to pound the rock and wants a workhorse type runner.
NFL player comparison: Derrick Henry
Audric Estime, Notre Dame
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Estime is a power running back with a compact build at 5’11” and 227 pounds. He broke out in his final collegiate season, rushing for a solid 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. A tackle-breaking machine, he ranked seventh in yards after contact among FBS runners with at least 147 carries. Estime also tied for 16th in missed tackles forced after a rush, according to PFF.
The big runner isn’t a great pass catcher, however, which could hurt his chances of being a three-down back at the next level. He also had some issues with securing the football at times. Still, Estime will be a perfect option for a gap team in the draft.
NFL player comparison: David Montgomery
Will Shipley, Clemson
Shipley started his collegiate career on a high note, averaging more than five yards per rush in his first two seasons. He also rushed for 1,182 yards and 15 touchdowns in his second year, during which time Shipley was also able to haul in 38 passes. His fantasy value at the next level would likely be as a pass catcher, as his PFF grade as a receiver out of the backfield was eighth among backs with at least 147 rushes.
Unfortunately, Shipley’s final season at Clemson was not a memorable one. He split work with Phil Mafah and ended up losing his starting job outright. Shipley will not be a between-the-tackles runner at the next level either, instead running more often on the perimeter. He’ll likely be a product of the offensive system he joins in the NFL.
NFL player comparison: Michael Carter
MarShawn Lloyd, USC
Lloyd transferred to USC after three seasons at South Carolina, during which time he was used sparingly until 2022. His best statistical season came with the Trojans, rushing for 7.1 yards per carry while also scoring nine touchdowns. Lloyd was also a riser at the Senior Bowl, which is notable. A natural runner, Lloyd has NFL upside.
The downside with Lloyd is that he’s no lock to be a three-down back at the next level. He wasn’t much of a pass catcher in college, and his overall yards-per-play average is less than impressive when compared to the rest of the 2024 class.
NFL player comparison: Dameon Pierce
Ray Davis, Kentucky
Davis bounced around in college, beginning his career at Temple before moving to Vanderbilt and finally transferring to Kentucky. He dominated the backfield work for the Wildcats last season, posting 1,066 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns. Davis also made an impact as a pass catcher, finishing with 29 catches and seven receiving scores.
Davis did spend five total seasons in college, however, and he’ll turn 25 later this year. He also had over 800 touches as an amateur, so he’ll come with some wear and tear. Still, he’s a pro-ready back who could be a sleeper with the right team.
NFL player comparison: Kendre Miller
Related: Fantasy Football 2024: Five Rookie Quarterbacks to Watch