NC State's upset over UNC was a glimpse of what's likely to be another wacky NCAA men's tournament
NC State became the first double-digit seed to win the ACC tournament Saturday, punching its ticket to the big dance with an upset over top-seeded North Carolina.
The victory as 10-point underdogs completed a stretch of five wins in five days for the Wolfpack — including wins over No. 2 Duke in the quarterfinals and No. 3 Virginia in the semis — securing an unlikely automatic bid to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. While their run was the exact type of Cinderella story fans look forward to in March, it was also the latest example of why fans can expect more madness than usual in 2024. College basketball’s top teams are as vulnerable as they’ve ever been.
This season, AP-ranked top-25 teams had their worst winning percentage against unranked teams since 1963, according to Stathead. That holds true for top-10 teams as well. Once in February, eight of the country’s top-10 teams all lost to unranked opponents in the same week — and four top-five teams lost in a 48-hour stretch for the first time ever.
NC STATE HAS DONE IT @PackMensBball is the first double-digit seed to win an ACC Tournament title! pic.twitter.com/xeOlruoito
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) March 17, 2024
Ken Pomeroy, creator of the trusted advanced stats site KenPom.com, told The Athletic in February this season was more wide open than usual. “It’s probably, compared to the last 25 years, maybe a little more wide open than average,” he said. That’s played out in the results.
Last season was the only time top-25 teams lost more total games than they have in 2023-24. And we saw how that ended, with three first-time Final Four teams.
That type of parity has only continued and should be a prompt for bettors to consider lower-seeded teams to ride in the tournament. Defending champion UConn is the title favorite with +425 odds at BetMGM, followed by Houston (+550) and Purdue (+700). Every other team has odds longer than 10-1, and depending on how the bracket shakes out on Selection Sunday, those are the teams worth a closer look.