The Death of the INF Treaty Could Signal a U.S.-Russia Missile Race

Steven Pifer

Security, Eurasia

Can the Trump administration and U.S. allies preserve it?

The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty marks its thirtieth anniversary on December 8. That could be one of its last. Russia has violated the treaty by deploying a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile. Congress has set the Department of Defense on a course to follow suit. Meanwhile, the silence of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia abets the agreement’s demise.

The end of the INF Treaty will make the world less safe. Can the Trump administration and U.S. allies preserve it?

Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty in 1987. The accord banned U.S. and Soviet ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (300 and 3,300 miles). It resulted in the destruction of some 2,700 missiles and their launchers.

The treaty is now in danger. The Russian military has tested and deployed a ground-launched cruise missile of intermediate range. That violates the treaty’s prohibitions on producing, flight-testing and possessing intermediate-range ground-launched missiles.

Moscow claims the United States has violated the treaty in three ways. Two of the charges appear baseless, but the third may have substance, though it is not as serious as the Russian violation. The launchers for U.S. SM-3 missile interceptors in Romania (and soon in Poland) are very similar to launchers on U.S. Navy warships, which can launch cruise missiles as well as SM-3 interceptors. The Russians thus claim that the launchers in Romania could hold ground-launched cruise missiles, in violation of the treaty.