Clemens & Bonds

I always wondered why the Hall of Fame chose to wait so long to consider Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. You know: it's been 17 years since Barry Bonds retired in 2000 after that amazing campaign. He hit .306/.440/.688 that year, I always wondered why he quit after such an amazing season. It's not like he was slowing down at 35. And Roger Clemens! Wow were the Red Sox right when they claimed he was in the 'twilight of his career' after he left Boston. But hey: hell of a pitcher while he was there. Anyway, it's strange the Hall of Fame is still debating these two guys since they retired so long ago, but I suppose there are special exceptions for a reason. Let's dive into the short careers of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens

The Skills

Barry Bonds

OK. Bonds pretty much did it all right? His batting average wasn't QUITE .300, but .289 ain't bad. Overall his: .289/.412/.567 slash line is pretty amazing. He's also the only player to reach both 400 stolen bases and 400 homeruns: shame he didn't stick around for one more year to reach 500! His 165 OPS+ is freaking DOMINANT as well. It's better than Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, and hitting savants like: Manny Ramirez, Dick Allen, Edgar Martinez. Heck it's near Ty Cobb's 168 OPS+ over his long career.

But Bonds wasn't only a hitter: he was an amazing defender. Despite playing Left Field: he won 8 Gold Gloves. That's unheard of for a left fielder, especially before they moved the award to specific outfield positions, and not just random outfielders. It's also not just bluster: Bonds was worth 190 runs in the field! 190! He was truly a terrific fielder in his prime, and arguably deserved MORE Gold Gloves than he won.

Bonds also was an amazing baserunner. Besides his 471 SB, he also was only caught 135 times: a solid 78% success rate. Overall Baseball Reference reckons Bonds was worth almost 50 runs as a baserunner in his career. He's truly among the few five tool players in baseball history.

Roger Clemens

What's to say about Clemens? He's a DOMINANT starting pitcher. He struck out 8.4 batters per 9 innings: good for 35th all time. He also struck out a career total of 2,590, an excellent total considering he only pitched until he turned 32 (25th all time). He combined his strikeout prowess with a knack for avoiding walks. Only 2.8 BB/9.

He was also a durable pitcher. He led the league with 271 IP in 1991, and finished in the top 10 7 times. He also was an excellent run preventer: 7 times finishing in the top 10 as well. Finally, his dominance was also excellent: 9 times finishing in the top 10 in SO/9, and 8 times finishing in the top 10 in strikeouts, leading once.

The Career

Barry Bonds

Bonds began his career young in Pittsburgh and was essentially immediately a starting outfielder. Over 15 years he never had an OPS+ worse than his rookie season of 103. His batting average climbed from .223 in 1986 to .283 in 1989, and finally won an MVP award in his age 25 season batting a dominant: .301/.406/.565, the slugging led the league. It would be the first of 3 MVP awards Bonds would win in his relatively short career.

If anything Bonds continued to improve. The next season he hit .292, but led the league in on base percentage at .410 and finished second in the MVP balloting. In fact: it was a sign of things to come as he won back-to-back MVP awards the next two seasons. Bonds was outright dominant, flashing leather (5 Gold Gloves in a row), base running prowess (averaged 41 stolen bases a season), while batting an absurd: .310/.433/.595 good for an OPS+ of 185. Overall he gained 36.5 WAR over 4 season, averaging over 8.0 WAR a season.

Bonds moved to San Francisco after his second MVP award, and won his third his first year in San Francisco. While Bonds never came close to winning another MVP award, he earned votes each year, and finished second his age 35, and last, season. Overall, over the course of his career he averaged 7.4 WAR per season. It's still a mystery why Barry Bonds chose to retire on top of his game.

Roger Clemens

Clemens pitched his entire career in the hitting haven known as Fenway Park. He started slow at age 21, only notching a 4.21 ERA, but quickly found his stride. At 23 he led the league in wins, WHIP and ERA, earning his first Cy Young Award AND the MVP. In his first post season Clemens pitched unevenly flashing dominance, at times. In the ALCS against California Clemens lost Game 1 in an uneven performance, but got the win in both Games 5 & 7, pitching well in the last game. The World Series Clemens pitched reasonably well, but earned neither a win nor loss, while Boston lost their World Series bid.

Clemens followed up his MVP campaign with another Cy Young campaign leading the league in wins, complete games, shutouts, FIP and strikeout/walk ratio. Overall Clemens spent his career in Boston absolutely wrecking the American League, he led the league in WAR with an astonishing 10.6 in 1990 (but lost the Cy Young to the inferior Bob Welch who won 27 games), but came back to win the Cy Young a third time in 1991. He finished 3rd in 1992 despite leading the league again in pitchers WAR when Dennis Eckersley won the Cy Young and MVP award.

While Clemens lost much of his dominance, he remained an effective pitcher in his late 20s and 30s. In his last 4 years he still mustered an ERA+ of 130 over 745 innings, which is still quite an achievement. Although not Cy Young worthy: he remained a front line starter.

Instead of entering the 'twilight of his career' and pitching for crazy career numbers Clemens retired in 1994.

The Case

Barry Bonds

Bonds' case stems from being an excellent all around player for a lengthy period of time. His 8 Gold Gloves in Left Field are unparalleled, and his 3 MVPs as well. While his career traditional numbers do not look particularly impressive, his advanced numbers are absurd. Overall he compiled 111.1 WAR in his career. Every player with over 100 career WAR is in the Hall of Fame already. There really isn't an argument AGAINST Bonds being in the Hall of Fame. He hit for power, hit for average, walked a ton, was marvelous in the field, and ran like the wind as a young man. Overall, he has a case for the best left fielder of all time.

Roger Clemens

Clemens' case is a bit more nuanced. His 192 wins is low for the Hall of Fame, ranking only 140th in baseball history. The only modern starter in the Hall of Fame with fewer wins is Addie Joss: and he didn't even pitch 10 years. However, his advanced metrics rate quite well. His 81.3 career WAR ranks just below Bob Gibson for career WAR, and ahead of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and fellow ballot mates: Mike Mussina & Curt Schilling. Since Clemens only pitched 13 seasons, it's mostly peak score as well.

If you want to compare Clemens to a pitcher, the best case is arguably Sandy Koufax. Here's their stats next to each other:

Pedro: 219-100, 2,827.1 IP, 3,154 SO, 46 CG, 17 SHO, 154 ERA+, 2.91 FIP, 4.15 SO/BB, 1.054 WHIP

Roger: 192-111, 2,776.0 IP, 2,590 SO, 100 CG, 38 SHO, 143 ERA+, 3.09 FIP, 3.03 SO/BB, 1.173 WHIP

Close. Pedro was probably a bit more dominant, but look at the difference in complete games and shutouts. It's also fair to point out that their FIP difference is miniscule. Overall, Pedro's 86.0 WAR is not far from Clemens' 81.3. You could argue Pedro was better, but I struggle to see how Clemens' small disadvantages negate his Hall of Fame case.

The Prediction

At the end of the day both Bonds and Clemens have somewhat incomplete careers as neither chose to continue on into their late 30s and 40s. However, their primes not only fit right into other Hall of Fame primes, but easily surpass them. I think it's foolish to bar both from the Hall of Fame. Bonds is arguably the greatest left fielder of all time, and Clemens pitched every bit as good as John Smoltz & Tom Glavine, and even Greg Maddux in HIS prime.

It may take them both a few years, but both should enter the Hall of Fame

Prediction: 55-60%