Rays 2018 Off Season Plan by Chris Adragna: Retool for a Big 2019
On Day 1 of the Winter Meetings Kevin Cash introduced the idea of the "youth movement." The overall idea has been pushed, at least in theory, by Marc Topkin, the Rays beat writer at the Tampa Bay Times.
Having established that, there is sufficient cover for me to suggest such a plan. Here it goes:
- Trade Longoria now
- Trade Archer now
- Trade Colome now
- Trade Odorizzi now
That's not all, by the July 31, 2018 trade deadline:
- Trade Ramos
- Trade Dickerson
- Trade Miller
- Trade Hechavarria
Whether you call this a "retool" or a full-on "rebuild" really doesn't matter. The amount of young talent that the Rays have at a near-MLB level could bring this team a wild card, or possibly the AL East title as soon as 2019.
In order to return to the post season in 2019, it will be necessary to promote some of the future starters in 2018 so that they can get acclimated to The Show. Plus, giving them some playing time in 2018 will help the front office determine who should be extended on long-term, team-friendly deals.
Here are existing guys who may fit long-term, and therefore deserve early, team friendly deals:
- Blake Snell
- Brent Honeywell
- Willy Adames
That is the backbone of my plan. Let's look ahead to 2019 to see who needs to be added via trade. The core of the 2019 team looks like this, looking at the Rays existing depth:
- Bauers, 1B
- Duffy, 2B (or Robertson)
- Adames, SS
- Kiermaier, CF
- Souza, RF
Now, let's look ahead to the 2019 starting rotation. I'm going to suggest that Jose De Leon and Nate Eovaldi get converted to the bullpen roles, so that leaves us with four guys ready to assume slots in the 2019 rotation.
- Snell
- Faria
- Honeywell
- Yarbrough
Ignoring the bullpen and the bench for now, looking at those nine players to be the core of the 2019 squad, it shows a need to add four position players and one starting pitcher.
MLB-ready position players are needed at: C, 3B, LF, DH.
I do not expect any of those four starting positions to be filled internally, except to acknowledge that Nick Ciuffo and Justin Wiliams might be ready to assume significant roles at catcher and left field in 2019. Consider, however, that I just proposed trading away Longo, Archer, Colome and Odorizzi. Such a collection of valuable MLB talent unquestionably will bring in young guys with bright futures.
I won't propose specifics for two-way and three-way trades, attempting to spell out where each of those Rays will go. As best I can understand, the Rays front office is very flexible and they like to target a number of guys at a number of organizations. In recent days, there has been prognosticating where those Rays could go (Astros, Cardinals, etc.). Instead of proposing the exact trades, I'll list the guys I want to target in trades. I think there is enough surplus value in the four Rays veterans to bring these guys to the Rays:
- Alex Bregman, 3B (Astros)
- Alex Reyes, SP (Cardinals)
- Carson Kelly, C (Reds)
- Jesse Winker, OF/DH (Reds)
Alex Bregman could be acquired from the Astros as part of either a blockbuster Archer or Longoria trade. In either case, there would likely be some additional prospect exchange where each team balances out some of their prospect depth.
Why: Bregman gives to the Rays an offensive upgrade over Longoria at a more affordable price.
Alex Reyes had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2017. He was expected to join the Cardinals rotation last year, and recovery from TJS probably lowers his value a bit. Cardinals, like the Astros, have interest in Colome, Longo, and Archer.
Why: Reyes projects to be a top-of-rotation starter, and the Rays need to fill the holes left by Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi.
The Cardinals also have another prospect who could fit in with the Rays, Carson Kelly. He was previously considered to be their next starting catcher after Yadier Molina was to leave in free agency. Molina was extended, however, and Kelly's future with the Cardinals is questionable.
Why: The Rays simply do not have MLB-ready catching prospects. Ciuffo will be sufficient defensively, but whether or not he can hit enough to start in the Majors is still to be determined.
Jesse Winker is a former first-round pick of the Reds, and he comes from Central Florida, where his parents live. The Reds have one too many MLB starters in the outfield, and they are expected to deal one of them. The Reds need pitching, and they have a spot for Odorizzi. Winker is an OBP machine. He will get on base at a clip near .400. His outfield play is good enough. With the Rays, Winker would fit best mainly as a DH.
Why: the Rays need a DH who could serve as a top-of-the-order bat for five years.
2017 Off Season Trade Recap
Subtractions: Longoria, Archer, Colome, Odorizzi
Additions: Bregman, Reyes, Kelly, Winker
As you can see, I'm trading four big names and adding four sure-things. I think these trades are agreeable, but they would probably be accompanied by some additional balance of prospects on both sides.
2018 Starters
- C: Wison Ramos until traded, THEN call up Carson Kelly (acquired from Reds)
- 1B: Brad Miller until traded, THEN call up Jake Bauers
- 2B: Daniel Robertson (or Matt Duffy)
- 3B: Alex Bregman
- SS: Adeiny Hechavarria until traded, THEN call up Willy Adames
- LF: Corey Dickerson until traded, THEN Mallex Smith (or Winker)
- CF: Kevin Kiermaier
- RF: Steven Souza
- DH: Jesse Winker
2018-2019 Rotation
- Blake Snell
- Jake Faria
- Brent Honeywell (promote from Durham)
- Alex Reyes (from Cardinals)
- Matt Andriese or Ryan Yarbrough (promote from Durham)
Free Agent Signings, Bullpen, and Bench
The topics of free agency, bullpen, and bench all go together. These are the parts of the team that usually come from these kinds scenarios:
- High minors pitching depth, not worthy of MLB rotation, some will become good relievers
- Free agent starters who are hurt: such as Eovaldi, potentially Pineda from NY
- Free agents, like Bourjos, who aren't aggressively pursued, but play good defense and hit close enough to league average
Pulling together those last pieces, should bring together something like the bullpen and bench listed below. Of course these will be the places with the most change, reacting to injuries, performance, and opportunities when MLB guys come available.
2018 Rays Bullpen
(This list has one guy too many.)
- Jose De Leon (possible high-leverage)
- Nathan Eovaldi (possible high-leverage)
- Ryne Stanek
- Chaz Roe
- Matt Andriese or Ryan Yarbrough (multi inning guy)
- Chih-Wei Hu (multi inning guy)
- Austin Pruitt (multi inning guy)
- [Sign best available LOOGY via free agency, MiLB or MLB]
2018 Bench
- Jesus Sucre, and call up Nick Ciuffo on Sept 1, C
- Micah Johnson, UTIL
- Robertson or Duffy, INF
- Mallex or Dickerson, OF
2018 Trade Deadline
At the 2018 trade deadline some moves will be made to fully bring on the "youth movement" by trading the following guys. In each the hope would be to add the best possible bullpen arm, low minors pitching prospect, or MLB utility player.
Brad Miller, he can play 1B and hopefully find his stroke again. Until then, he will keep 1B warm for Jake Bauers. If he can launch 30 HR in 2018.
Adeiny Hechavarria can man shortstop until another MLB club has a need for a good defensive shortstop, making Hechavarria worthy, enough, to bring back someone useful.
Hopefully Corey Dickerson's bat returns to the level of an All Star player. Dickerson will be earning arbitration pay, and his salary is becoming high enough to part ways, especially during a retooling.
Wilson Ramos, assuming he is healthy, should bring back a more than useful player or two to the Rays, particularly from a contending team with an injury at catcher.
Using 2018 to setup a run in 2019
Some of the departures I proposed are shocking, but this is not a rebuild. The leftover talent should be good enough to avoid 100 losses in 2018, and it will be exciting to see each of the future starters join the team. Letting them join the MLB club and starting in 2018 is important for their preparedness in 2019.
On August 1, 2018, the Rays lineup could look something like this:
- Kiermaier, CF
- Winker, DH
- Bregman, 3B
- Souza, RF
- Bauers, 1B
- Duffy, 2B
- Adames, SS
- Kelly, C
- Smith, LF
Rays may have a losing record in 2018, but fans have much to look forward to:
- Does Snell develop into an ace? If so, it he setting up for a Cy Young quality season in 2019?
- Brent Honeywell will begin his MLB career.
- Who will be the bullpen guy to elevate his game, earning high leverage innings.
- Can Souza hit 40 home runs and earn a gold glove if he stays healthy?
- What will a full season of KK look like? Could he be MVP worthy?
- Who is this Duffy guy we traded for?
- Will Bregman make us forget about Longoria?
- Adames will begin his MLB career.
- Will Jesse Winker hit .300? Will he get more walks than strikeouts?
- Who will we get for our deadline deals on July 31?
- Will we abandon the closer role to use our best reliever at the highest leverage moment?
- Will Daniel Robertson earn a starting role over Duffy?
Well, that's my plan. It does give up any chance of the post season in 2018, but it's for the purpose of building a very strong, very young Rays team that would be a contender immediately afterward beginning in 2019 and lasting for several years.