Kelly Bryant is the biggest difference in Bama-Clemson III. Here’s how he changes things

After Deshaun Watson lit up the Tide in this championship series’ first two games, the new guy gets his shot.

Last year’s college football final was a true heavyweight bout. The Alabama defense had been utterly dominant all season and even reconfigured from the previous year to make a tougher out for teams like Clemson.

Meanwhile, the Tiger offense was returning virtually every starter for another shot at the Tide. Clemson pulled off the revenge win, barely and on a final drive for the ages.

The rubber match is again a Playoff game and might be comparably competitive, but neither team is at the peak of its 2016 powers.

Young Clemson QB Kelly Bryant has had an impressive debut season, but he’s not the foe Deshaun Watson was for Alabama.

Luckily for the Tigers, this defense isn’t quite a typical Alabama D.

Per S&P+, Alabama’s defense would give up about 14 points against an average FBS opponent. That’s excellent, but not quite the 7-point rating S&P+ gave the Tide the year prior. Clemson’s offense is likewise down more than a full score from 2016.

The decisive point will probably be on the perimeter.

Last year’s Clemson was at its best when spreading the field from 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, and three WRs), with TE Jordan Leggett, slot Hunter Renfrow, and WR Mike Williams splitting the attention.

Now Clemson uses fewer offensive snaps per game, but runs the ball 1.5 times more than last year. Without Watson to lead the passing game, Clemson is now more of a spread-option team that asks Bryant to make quick decisions in the run game, to get the ball to speedy skill players on the perimeter:

As you can tell, there’s an awful lot going on here.

On a normal read play, the QB would either hand off to the back on an outside sweep or keep the ball and run it behind the pulling guard. The toss-read play involves the QB making the same read but with a pitch instead of a keeper, which stresses the perimeter and the LBs more.

On top of all that, while most of the OL is blocking for the toss-read, the H-back and LT (at the top of the formation) are lead blocking on the weak side for the slot receiver, Ray-Ray McCloud, who motions across and receives the ball. Amazingly, South Carolina isn’t terribly surprised, and the Gamecocks have their boundary safety in position to make the tackle, but McCloud makes him miss.

This offense is ostensibly about running inside zone and power and counter, but it really does its damage on the edge. You can see that reflected in the strategies of opponents, like how South Carolina is playing this second-and-5 run:

The zone-read keeper has a DE and an OLB sitting on it, but the Tigers have 5-on-5 blocking inside and can release their RT up to the middle linebacker to clear a path for RB Tavien Feaster to pick up 9 yards.

Opponents don’t want to give up soft edges for the slotbacks, RBs, or Bryant. The QB led the team in carries (152) and rushing yards (801), once you take out sack yardage, while Travis Etienne and Feaster combined for 206 carries for 1,403 yards and 20 TDs. McCloud had 542 receiving yards, many on quick screens and sweeps.

Bryant makes the right option reads and smart decisions to protect the ball, allowing Clemson to scheme ahead of the chains. He also has some designed runs, or he can take off and make something happen.

The Clemson OL is a bit sturdier than a year ago, when it was brilliant in pass protection but not likely to plow the Alabama defense. The line rotates in RT Tremayne Anchrum more regularly; he’s the 6’2, 290-pound mauler you can see reaching the South Carolina linebacker above.

Center Justin Falcinelli was an All-ACC selection, and the left side of All-ACC first-team tackle Mitch Hyatt and third-team guard Taylor Hearn returns from a year ago. They’re still not a dominating, downhill team, but they are tougher to stop in the middle for teams that hope to overload the edges.

Alabama’s big difference this year is at the inside-backer positions.

The rest of the Tide defense looks typical of the Saban era. The DL is massive, the safeties are rangy, the corners play a lot of man coverage, and Thorpe-winning DB Minkah Fitzpatrick often lines up in the slot.

Nick Saban’s Tide have always been about forcing a hard edge and keeping the ball funneled inside to linebackers.

But Fitzpatrick and safeties Hootie Jones and Ronnie Harrison are the team’s three leading solo tacklers, atypical for any defense.

The hole is inside, where instead of an All-American and an apprentice, the Tide feature hybrid OLB Rashaan Evans and true freshman Dylan Moses, who’s playing a lot in part due to injuries. Auburn went after them exactly as Clemson will do: by spreading them out and using misdirection and perimeter blocking.

Auburn moved fullback Chandler Cox around and made various Alabama defenders prove they could beat his blocks. This defense runs about as well as any — in addition to the excellent trio of safeties, Evans and Moses are great athletes for the ILB spots —but they don’t diagnose and contain as well as LBs in years past.

Here you can see Auburn successfully Isolating Moses with No. 27, Cox, and blowing a hole through a seven-man front:

Even for Alabama’s safeties, this is tough to clean up while playing man coverage. How will Alabama LBs handle Clemson’s misdirection-heavy spread-option attack while star DLs are being double-teamed?

What about Alabama’s traditional (relative) weakness?

Clemson is fantastic at manufacturing yardage in chunks with motion, leverage, and speed on the edge, and Alabama is perhaps more vulnerable there than in the past. But that’s far from the most proven way to challenge the Tide.

It’s difficult to outexecute Bama’s DL with run-blocking, their LBs have good range in pursuit, and their safeties tackle exceptionally well, which makes it hard to score without throwing down the field.

The best way to get after them is the way Clemson did it a year ago: Throwing over and over and wearing out pass rushers while picking on matchups down the field. Watson threw 56 times, more than any Saban Bama team had ever faced, though doing it successfully is easier said than done, especially with a young QB.

Clemson should benefit from the fact that Alabama will have to lean on man coverage, to help its linebackers against the run. This defensive front is not the sort to totally snuff out a run game like Clemson’s with even numbers, though it also doesn’t give up big gains on the ground.

That means this game could come down to how well Bryant executes on third downs. And he still has Alabama’s public enemy No. 1: Renfrow. In Round 2, the former walk-on caught 10 balls for 92 yards and a pair of scores, including the game-winner, and while he’s the second leading receiver behind Deon Cain, he’s the key to the third-down strategy.

He runs excellent routes and can catch well, so teams have to account for him. Clemson takes advantage of this by moving him around to help Bryant identify matchups to attack:

Miami played man coverage and shaded LB help to prevent quick-hitting routes to Renfrow; the Hurricanes even disguised it well. However, it was easy for Bryant to go elsewhere with the ball to capable targets like Cain or McCloud.

Presumably Alabama will assign Thorpe-winner Fitzpatrick to Renfrow, but the Tide haven’t faced a QB/WR tandem this precise this season. So it remains to be seen how they will match up.

If the Tide can hold up, they might be able to shut down Clemson on third down and keep the score within a comfortable range for their own offense. It may also portend a hopeful future for Alabama against the Oklahoma offense it might have to face in the final.

If Alabama can’t, then Clemson will likely achieve what was once unfathomable: Holding a 2-1 scoreboard edge over Saban’s Tide.