Invisibleinkwell’s updated A’s offseason plan: there will be trades

The way I see it, the A’s priority is to build a championship-calibre team for a window of 2020-2024. Most of the true impact talent is currently in the high minors, so even if guys like Barreto, Fowler, Mateo and Puk debut in 2018 or 2019, if you allow for adjustment, 2020 is likely to be their first big year of prime production. These are the guys you build around. That’s not to say that short-term moves to improve the team for 2018 and 2019 can’t be made, but they’re not the highest priority.

At this point in the offseason, the FO has shown that they are sticking to their guns with that strategy: two of their three acquisitions so far are long-term guys, in Piscotty and Pagan. One often overlooked part of being successful in executing a strategy is having the discipline to know what you should NOT do. I firmly believe the team should NOT trade any top prospects, no matter how tempting the targets.

Having said that, the A’s do have one other key lever to pull: money. As of this writing, the payroll is a very low $60M. Smart management has given them plenty of ammunition to play with in that regard, so if they’re willing to go up to, say, the low 80s each year from here on (which I think is a fair assumption), great things could happen.

As I see it, the current needs are:

• Left-handed relief pitcher (both short-term and long-term)
• Catcher (short-term)
• One more high-quality outfielder (long-term)
• Find trade partners for both Lowrie and Joyce
• Clear some out-of-options clutter guys off the roster

My proposed moves:

• Hendriks, Casilla and Casilla’s $6M to the Twins for LHRP Tyler Jay and SP Zach Littell
• Joyce and Nunez to the Mets for a SP Marcos Molina
• Shore, Molina, Hahn, Alcantara, and Ruiz to the Marlins for Yelich and Prado
• Lowrie, Prado and Prado’s $28.5M salary to the Yankees for SP Justus Sheffield
• Sign C Alex Avila for 2/$16M
• Sign one under-the-radar FA LHRP: any of Liriano, De La Rosa or Abad for 2/$4M
• Sign MIF Cliff Pennington for 2/$4M

Let’s take these moves one at a time.

Hendriks, Casilla and Casilla’s $6M to the Twins for LHRP Tyler Jay and SP Zach Littell

The Twins’ biggest need is MLB-proven bullpen help. Their bullpen was their weakest area in 2017, and they now know they’re in win-mode, so to get to the next level in the post-season they need more reliable relievers. Both Hendriks and Casilla would help. Even with Casilla’s drop-off in the second half of 2017, he would still be better than what the Twins rolled out there, and if he repeats his first-half performance, even better – and better still, they’d be getting him for free. It’s a no-brainer for them. In exchange, the A’s get a highly promising (albeit injury-prone) lefty relief prospect in Tyler Jay, who if healthy could fill the longer-term need for an impact LHRP; and starter Zach Littell, who despite being a 45-grade prospect has done nothing but succeed at every level (similar to what Graveman did in the minors). The A’s also clear out two short-term expendable out-of-options RHRPs from their roster to give them some flexibility.

Joyce and Nunez to the Mets for a SP Marcos Molina

The Mets want to compete again in 2018, yet also are hamstrung by budget and lack of a great farm. They need a LH bat to replace the losses of Granderson, Duda and Bruce from last year’s team, and they have little confidence in Dominic Smith to carry a full load at 1B. They also have a hole to fill at either 2B or 3B. This move fills two of their needs on a budget. Joyce gives them their productive LH bat. He’d essentially platoon with Lagares (against righties, Joyce would play a COF with Conforto in center; against lefties, Lagares in CF and Conforto in a corner). Nunez gives them a righty 1B power bat to form a perfect platoon with Smith, who can’t hit lefties, and that platoon may just work for the long-term. And they still have money left over for an infielder.

For the A’s, they realize some value for Joyce and Nunez, and get a promising starter who is blocked by the Mets’ deep (when healthy) rotation, and who could also be a valuable trade chip in another deal…

Shore, Molina, Hahn, Alcantara, and Ruiz to the Marlins for Yelich and Prado

This is the biggie. The key here is the A’s use their financial headroom to take Prado’s contract – he’s owed $28.5M through 2019 – as the key lever to get Yelich, who obviously fills the long-term need for a third quality outfielder (and as a lefty, replaces Joyce this year). I’m sure the Marlins would LOVE to dump that Prado contract, even if their main fire sale is over. They want to start fresh. If that wasn’t enough, we also give them FIVE guys with upside: a top-10 pitching prospect in Shore; another 50-grade pitching prospect in Molina (who we will have just flipped); Hahn, who might have just enough of a smidge of trade value to be part of this package – and note that the Marlins’ have found success with a former A’s late-bloomer in Straily; Alcantara, who showed enough in his September callup to restore some upside, most likely as a reliever; and Ruiz, who becomes expendable for the A’s and gives the Marlins a possible fan favorite with upside.

The A’s, of course, get Yelich for the foreseeable future, well into the window years, to form a big outfield: Yelich in LF, Fowler in CF, and Piscotty in RF, with Powell as 4th. Note also that Yelich’s left-handedness is a big plus, as we will lose productive lefties in Joyce and Lowrie’s lefty side, while most of our key prospects are righties (Barreto, Mateo, Neuse), so this provides some long-term lineup balance.

Lowrie, Prado and Prado’s $28.5M salary to the Yankees for SP Justus Sheffield

The Yankees need to fill short-term holes at 2B and 3B, both to help the team’s run this year and to hold the fort until Torres and Andujar are ready to take over those slots (and/or Machado to fill one next year). Lowrie is at peak value after his 4-WAR 2017, his $6M salary undervalues him, and his doubles machinery fits the Yankees’ lineup perfectly (imagine all the two-run homers if he’s bat ahead of Judge or Stanton). And to boot, they get Prado FOR FREE – which means if he’s healthy after his knee surgery, they can use him at either 3B, as a platoon guy with Bird (who’s still young and injury-prone) at 1B, or as a DH against lefties. Did I mention he’d be free? They care about the luxury tax this year, so this move gives them two key vets to fill holes, AND helps them stay under the tax.

For all that, the A’s demand – and get – one of their top pitching prospects in Sheffield. This is another potential TOR arm who will help solidify the rotation for the long-term.

Sign C Alex Avila for 2/$16M

I see this as a lost year for Maxwell, who at best needs to spend 2018 in Nashville (if he’s not in jail) to get both his life and baseball chops back together. I prefer Avila among the FA options, as he’d serve as the primary strong-side platoon bat. He had a great 2017, so he seems to be in peak form. I know he said he’d prefer to be with a contender, but the catching market appears weak this year, and Lucroy will probably be snatched up first, so I think he’ll take us as a fallback. Plus, at $8M per year, he’s getting paid decently.

Sign one under-the-radar FA LHRP: De La Rosa, Liriano or Abad for 2/$4M

Jorge De La Rosa and Francisco Liriano are older, former starters who recently converted to relief, and both showed promise as LOOGYs. De La Rosa held lefties to an OPS of only .545; Liriano of .655, but most of that was as a starter so that could come down more; Abad quietly held lefties to a .636 mark. Any of these three will do the job cheaply, frankly. As much as I’d prefer Tony Watson in this role, I fear he’ll cost a little too much and/or demand more years.

Sign MIF Cliff Pennington for 2/$4M

This is just a low-cost move to replace Lowrie for the short-term. His 2B defense would be an improvement over Jed, and while his offense is weak, it’s not terrible if you bat him exclusively against righties, where he hit .256/.329/.361. He’s a better option than, say, Rosales because of this. He’ll man 2B so we don’t rush Barreto; and when Barreto is ready, you can platoon him a bit with Pennington to ease him in. As a bonus, he’s a capable backup should Semien get injured.

Budget impact

As of early January, the A’s payroll sits at about $60M. Can they afford to eat the contracts of both Prado and Casilla to get all this done? I say yes. Here’s the breakdown.

2018:

Start at $60M. This includes all current commitments and Davis’ expected arb raise. Add Prado at $13.5M, Yelich at $7M. Now you’re at $80.5. Now subtract the $12M you owed to Joyce and Lowrie, and you’re at $68.5M. Add $4M for the LHRP and Pennington, and you end up at $72.5M. Very reasonable.

2019:

Start at $72.5M. Casilla comes off the books, so you’re down to $66.5M. Add $5.25M for raises for Prado and Yelich, plus, say, another $5M for arb raises. Let’s round that up and you end up at $77M. Still very reasonably under $80M.

2020:

Prado comes off the books, which gets you down to $62M. LHRP and Pennington also come off the books, so now you’re at $58M. Still ridiculously low. Now you have the freedom to a) extend Davis (which I recommend) – let’s say we give him 4/$64M for an AAV of $16M, which I think he’d take, and which I think is reasonable for a DH-only who will be 32-36 at that time. As a DH, he figures to have less wear and tear and still be a productive hitter well into his 30s (the A’s version of Ortiz?). Now you’re up to $74M. Also factor in extensions for key guys like Chapman, Olson, and whichever prospects have shined so far, plus arb raises. You’re still in good shape to lock in your best guys, which you should definitely do at this point since you’re in all-in mode for the big five-year run, so you can expect additional revenue from more attendance, TV revenue, and playoff shares. It’s all green from here.

Roster impact (excluding the two flips here):

2018 MLB additions: Yelich, Avila, LHRP, Pennington

Prospect additions: Sheffield, Jay, Littell

2018 MLB subtractons: Lowrie, Joyce, Hendriks, Casilla, Nunez, Hahn, Alcantara

Prospect subtractions: Shore, Ruiz

We’ve traded away mostly from our surplus – three guys in walk years who will not be with us in the big run (Lowrie, Joyce, Casilla), three guys who are out of options and who otherwise may not have made the team (Nunez, Hahn, Alcantara), and two back-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospects (Shore, Ruiz).

For the long term, we received one franchise outfielder (Yelich) to bookend the other franchise outfielder (Piscotty) and who, as a lefty, balances out the lineup well; one high-end starting pitching prospect (Sheffield); one high-end lefty relief prospect (Jay); and a back-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospect (Littell) to replace Shore.

For the short term, we added a catcher who can a) bridge the gap to Murphy; b) give Maxwell some time to regroup; c) add some offensive pop against righties; d) help mold the young pitchers with experienced pitch calling; e) and add respectable defense/framing skills. We also added a LHRP to balance out the bullpen and fill the role until presumably Jay gets up, and a capable MIF to hold the fort for (and/or platoon with) Barreto or Mateo.

2018 roster:

Outfielders: Yelich (LF), Fowler (CF), Piscotty (RF); Powell 4th; Pinder util (AAA depth: Smolinski, Canha, Laureano, Boyd)

Infielders: Chapman (3B), Semien (SS), Pennington/Pinder (2B); Olson (1B) (AAA depth: Barreto, Mateo, Canha)

Catchers: Avila, Phegley/Garneau (whichever earns it) (AAA depth: Maxwell, Taylor)

Starters: Graveman, Manaea, Cotton, Mengden, Blackburn (AAA depth: Gossett, Puk, Holmes, Sheffield, Fillmyer, Littell)

Relievers (8): Treinen, Pagan, Petit, FA LHRP, Coulombe, Hatcher, Triggs, Dull (AAA depth: Bassitt, Montas, Trivino, Wahl, Sanchez, Jay)

2018 projected lineup vs. righties:

1. Fowler/Powell CF
2. Yelich LF
3. Piscotty RF
4. Olson 1B
5. Davis DH
6. Avila C
7. Chapman 3B
8. Semien SS
9. Pennington 2B

• Bench: Phegley/Garneau, Powell/Fowler, Pinder

Note that in this scenario, you can go with only 12 position players and an eight-man bullpen. Powell may start the year as the main CF, but once Fowler is ready, he becomes the 4th OF; Pinder is the platoon/backup infielder (and outfielder in a pinch); and one backup catcher, whichever of Phegley or Garneau makes it. If we need a backup 1B, Pinder or Piscotty can play there in a pinch until you call up Canha.

2018 lineup vs. lefties:

1. Semien SS
2. Pinder 2B
3. Piscotty RF
4. Davis DH
5. Olson 1B
6. Chapman 3B
7. Yelich LF
8. Phegley/Garneau C
9. Fowler/Powell CF

In 2018, we lose a little bit of production from Lowrie, but we almost make up for it by platooning Pennington and Pinder, and more than make up for Joyce with Yelich.

2019 roster projection

In 2019, we can project Barreto and Mateo making the roster, and Murphy perhaps mid-year.

2019 lineup vs. righties:

1. Fowler CF
2. Yelich LF
3. Barreto 2B
4. Olson 1B
5. Davis DH
6. Piscotty RF
7. Avila C
8. Chapman 3B
9. Mateo SS

Bench: Phegley/Garneau/Murphy, Powell, Semien, Pinder

2019 lineup vs. lefties:

1. Mateo SS
2. Barreto 2B
3. Piscotty RF
4. Davis DH
5. Olson 1B
6. Chapman 3B
7. Yelich LF
8. Murphy/Phegley/Garneau C
9. Fowler CF

On the pitching side:

At this point, Puk, Sheffield and Holmes are in the rotation and getting their feet wet. Kapreilian is stretching out in AAA and may be called up later.

Starters: Graveman, Manaea, Puk, Sheffield, Holmes (AAA depth: Cotton, Mengden, Blackburn, Kapreilian, Gossett, Fillmyer, Littell)

Relievers (7): Treinen, Pagan, Petit, FA LHRP, Coulombe, Hatcher, Triggs, (AAA depth: Dull, Bassitt, Montas, Trivino, Wahl, Sanchez, Jay)

2020 projection

In 2020, Murphy takes over the C role full-time. Semien is probably traded, Davis is hopefully extended, and Neuse may have a role.

2020 lineup vs. righties:

1. Fowler CF
2. Mateo SS
3. Yelich LF
4. Olson 1B
5. Davis DH
6. Barreto 2B
7. Piscotty RF
8. Chapman 3B
9. Murphy C

Bench: Maxwell, Powell, Pinder, Neuse

2020 lineup vs. lefties (find a place for Neuse?):

1. Mateo SS
2. Barreto 2B
3. Piscotty RF
4. Davis DH
5. Olson 1B
6. Chapman 3B
7. Yelich LF
8. Murphy C
9. Fowler CF

On the pitching side:

Starters: Puk, Sheffield, Holmes, Kapreilian, Manaea (AAA depth: Luzardo, Jefferies, Cotton, Mengden, Blackburn, Gossett, Fillmyer, Littell); traded: Graveman

Relievers (7): Treinen, Pagan, Montas, Jay, Coulombe, Trivino, Triggs, Bassitt (AAA depth: Dull, Wahl, Sanchez, whoever converts from failed-starter status)

At this point, the A’s will be in win-now mode, with what appears to be strong pitching, strong lineups, strong defense, and a budget of around $74M. Plus more prospects are coming (Beck, Luzardo, Lazarito, Merrell, Deichmann). Likely AL competitors at this point will be the Yankees, White Sox and Astros (possibly the Twins, possibly Red Sox), and if we need veteran help for a playoff run to fill gaps (which will inevitably happen), there is still budget and/or prospect depth to work from. And in the end, we will have stuck to the strategy of winning from 2020-24, while improving in 2018 and 2019.