UFC 223: Khabib vs Iaquinta Toe-to-Toe Preview: A complete breakdown

Phil and David attempt to preview the fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Al Iaquinta under the vain assumption that it will actually happen and that reality itself will not crack asunder

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Al Iaquinta this April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

One sentence summary

David: To Be Renounced

Phil: Heisenberg’s main event, where just to write about it is to change the headliner

Stats

Record: Khabib Nurmagomedov 25-0 vs. Al Iaquinta 13-3-1 Draw

Odds: Khabib Nurmagomedov -485 Al Iaquinta +385

History / Introduction to both fighters

David: If you’re reading this I hope you forgive us for our literary whiplash. My internet’s been out for a week, and I get home from work to have my internet fixed (temporarily), only to find out that Khabib is fighting not Tony Ferguson (yes!), or Max Holloway (ok cool), but Al Iaquinta (the f--k?!). And all of this with dolly smashing Conor McGregor drama to color the MMA landscape. Didn’t this start with some guy in the production truck not doing his job too? Anyway—not wait, am I the only who feels like the production truck guy is the best Dana boogeyman? According to my research, he’s probably still out there. Anyway—two injuries later, and at last Khabib has an opponent. Yes, the same guy who he’s been hocking his real estate business in his postfight interviews. I mean, let’s consider the dominos that fell in order for this fight to happen: deadly cables, Conor McGregor, angel wings, Dagestani shadow figures, defenestrating, and fighters that need to work two jobs to make ends meet. Previewing this fight may suck, but let’s face it. Everything about this fight is the essence preceding the UFC’s existence.

Phil: It’s a fight and it may be happening. That’s about all we can say with any confidence. Al Iaquinta’s last win was a re-murder of the corpse of Diego Sanchez, and his last win before that was a decision over Jorge Masvidal. That itself was a decision suspect enough that it won our coveted “Robbery of the Year” award and earned our very own Tim Burke the eternal enmity of Ragin’ Al.

Iaquinta himself has been very candid about not ever wanting to fight Nurmagomedov unless they paid him “a million dollars.” I hope they did, although given how the UFC cheaped out on Pettis, I’m doubting it.

What’s at stake?

David: An Iaquinta win would make me laugh hard enough to stroke out and die. I mean, probably not, but I’d laugh, and move on to the next MMA event riddled with peak absurdity.

Phil: I’d be a bit bummed out in all honesty. Khabib has shaken off some of the injury curse and has stood steady as a rock throughout this whole debacle through about five different opponent changes. If he lost to Al it would be a brutal comedown, punting him out of the McGregor(?) sweepstakes, and wrecking the legacy that seems so important to him. The UFC seems to be assuming that Al can’t or won’t win, because they’ve committed themselves to crowning him champ if he wins, despite the fact that he sort of technically can’t, due to weighing in at 155.2. Assuming crazy things can’t happen seems sort of... remiss, given recent events...? Where’s Nicholas Nassim Taleb? He can talk about tail risk and black swans and weightlifting and... well, a bunch of other stuff that he bloviates about but doesn’t seem to understand very well. Maybe get someone else, come to think about it.

Where do they want it?

David: Khabib is gonna Khabib. He’s gonna angle in for strikes that aren’t technically proficient but that are technically effective, and once he has any one of a thousand different vicegrips at his disposal, he’ll dump his opponent on their hand and suffocate them with brutal ground and pound, and equally brutal submission positioning. The term boa constrictor is always used to describe good grapplers, but only with Khabib does this description really apply; his ability to switch grips, neutralizing opponents into feeling like they have no wrists sticks him into the upper echelon of top control grapplers. I honestly thought Edson Barboza had something of a puncher’s chance, but instead Barboza was brutalized. I still feel like Khabib has had a favorable schedule in proportion to how fans view him (godly), but there’s no denying his skillset.

Phil: Khabib doesn’t really have much in the way of evasive defense or footwork, instead opting to trot after opponents at a gradually increasing pace and relying on forearm parries and head movement. It help here that he is freakishly, lightning quick, and so folk don’t have much of a chance to tag him cleanly before he’s throwing back in combination and grabbing connections. He’s not normally much of a driving double-leg guy, instead opting to go for the Maia route of a “soft” initial shot to get his hands on the opponent. He can hit double legs (ref: Healy fight), but it’s the difference between using the takedowns as a pressure and a counter tool, and he normally likes to pressure nowadays. I think of the soft shot as the equivalent of a jab, and the blast double as the right hand.

If he gets his hands on people, he runs them to the fence and starts going through bodylock chains and trip series. Once on top it’s all about baiting people into standing up and then pulling them back down while continually softening them up. No-one’s really gotten out of it without getting badly compromised yet.

David: Can we just preview this fight instead?

Iaquinta is a legit fighter. Unfortunately he’s coming off a KO win over Diego Sanchez, which is basically a step down. It’s like skipping a fight with Sagat to get to M. Bison by destroying the parked car in order to unlock a new costume. His right hand is still money; enought to argue that his puncher’s chance is better than Barboza’s. With his sturdy defense—wait...we’re just now getting word. Iaquinta pulled out of the fight. Khabib is now fighting Kyle Maynard. I kid, obviously, but only because I’m exhausted and need to skip over the part where I pretend Iaquinta stands a chance.

Phil: Al does almost everything on the feet well, with a solid jab, cross and counter left hook. He’s a good leg and body kicker, and has a great chin. He works the body and is clever with his shot selection. His footwork is solid and he does a good job of circling off to deny shots, which is the core of his takedown defense, but he also has a good sprawl.

On the downside, he’s not a high-end athlete, nor a one hitter quitter, and he hits people because he’s in the right position to do so, not because he has lightning quick handspeed. His takedown defense is good, but his grappling instincts are poor. Were this a pure kickboxing match, he would probably win. It’s not.

Insight from past fights

David: Jokes aside, Iaquinta has something of a classic sprawling base to keep Nurmagomedov (presumably) from making effective punch entries like he typically does.

Phil: This feels a lot like Michael Johnson vs Khabib, albeit with less insecurity from Al, but also less raw speed and power. As mentioned, Al has good functional takedown defense, enabled by his footwork. He also tends to absolutely implode in grappling situations, much like Johnson. In rewatching his most relevant bout (against Kevin Lee) I was somewhat surprised to be reminded that he was within inches of getting choked out by a very raw incarnation of the Motown Phenom. Mitch Clarke, Michael Chiesa... it’s a pattern. Good TDD. Bad mat grappler.

X-Factors

David: From now on, we’ll call this the UFC 223 section. And to think, we didn’t even consider the fallout; namely, Jon Jones Twitter-comparing his dick to Tyson Griffin’s bodonkadonk (sp?).

Phil: The arena catching fire? Mayhem Miller with a steel chair?

Prognostication

David: Khabib Nurmagomedov by TKO, round 2.

Phil: I think Al will land some shots, and may even hurt Khabib early. Khabib is still not a defensive mastermind, and will have to take some punches to get to a takedown. Once he does, though, Iaquinta is just not very likely to stand up again without getting either badly beaten or subbed. Maybe he gets that leg lock that he occasionally dives for and shocks the world. Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission, round 2.