Solving the Democrats’ Midterm Message Challenge

Alan Taffel

Politics, Americas

The 'Stop Trump' message will appeal to all types of Democrats and a substantial number of independents.

On a recent episode of NPR’s All Things Considered, three Democratic incumbents to the House—Cheri Bustos of Illinois, New York’s Hakeem Jeffries and David Cicilini of Rhode Island—were doing what Democrats do all too well: wringing their hands and overthinking a problem. The “problem” in this case: coming up with a single, unifying policy message for the midterm campaign despite the highly diverse slate of candidates. What message, they ponder aloud, could possibly work for office-seekers ranging from moderates to progressives to “democratic socialists”?

At this point, the interviewer asks the obvious question: Why not just make the midterms a referendum on Trump rather than a policy debate? A bad idea, we’re told. “To the extent that the president has lost support, that leaves room to have a dialog (about Trump), but it doesn’t mean the dialog should be anchored in bashing the president,” said Rep. Jefferies. Rep. Cicilini chimed in that Democrats need to focus on values and pocketbook issues over the issue of Trump. Otherwise, “even if we win, we’ll (only) be in the majority for two years.”

I have a solution to the Democrats’ messaging challenge, but first two historical facts that the NPR guests seem to have forgotten. First, statistics show that midterm elections are invariably a referendum on the party holding the White House; they’re not primarily about “pocketbook” or any other policy matters. The out-of-power party cannot circumvent this phenomenon; its only decision is whether to embrace it. During the Obama years, Republicans did just that, making those midterms all about Obama. The result was an energized base that gave Republicans steady, inexorable gains until they’d overtaken both the House and the Senate.