Cost estimates for new government programs usually vary depending on the source. For government paid leave, cost estimates depend on assumptions about benefit duration, wage replacement rate, eligibility requirements, and more.
A variety of real and hypothetical government paid leave programs are listed below, along with associated costs.
2.1 percent payroll tax to cover the lower bound estimate = $1,063 annually for mean annual wage of $50,620
A 13.02 percent (997 bill/159 bill = 6.27 and 2.1%*6.27= 13.02%) payroll tax to cover the upper bound estimate = $6,590 annually for average annual wage of $50,620
$159 - $997.4 billion annually
The lower bound estimate assumes that everyone that takes paid leave takes 12 weeks in a year. FMLA take-up rates are used.The upper bound number assumes that all workers take paid leave in a given year and is considered the “total cost exposure” of the policy.
About $5/week for average wage worker in 2016 = $255/annually for average wage worker
$28.3 billion annually
California – author’s calculation
California policy:
6 weeks of family leave and 52 weeks of disability.
1.0 percent in California in 2018 (on wages up to the first $114,967 of earnings) = $506 annually for average worker with mean annual wage of $50,620
n/a
This includes family and medical leave benefits, as well.
New Jersey – author’s calculation
New Jersey policy:
6 weeks of family leave and 26 weeks of disability.
0.28% combined employee payroll tax + 0.5% employer payroll tax (on up to $33,700 for 2018) = $263 annually for average worker
n/a
This includes family leave insurance and state disability insurance (temporary medical insurance), as well.
This calculation assumes full pass through of employer payroll taxes associated with state disability insurance. Note that New Jersey payroll taxes are reset annually, so numbers are subject to change.
Rhode Island –author’s calculation
Rhode Island policy:
4 weeks of family leave and 30 weeks of disability.
1.1 percent in Rhode Island in 2018 (on up to $69,300) = $557 annually for average worker with average annual wage of $50,620
n/a
This includes both family and medical leave programs.
Adjusting the benefit profile of the program (for example, changing the length of benefit offering, wage replacement rate, or eligibility criteria), or changing take-up rate assumptions impacts these estimates.
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