Scandals hurt politicians' chances — but not as much as you'd think
A scandal-plagued politician may not exactly thrill voters — but very possibly will win their votes anyway, a new FiveThirtyEight analysis shows.
While scandal — defined here as "a credible accusation of objective criminal or ethical wrongdoing, such as embezzlement or adultery" — does lower a candidate's support by about 6 to 9 percent, the incumbent's advantage and simple partisanship are often enough to ensure election anyway.
Thus of 10 scandalous incumbents seeking re-election to the House or Senate this year, FiveThirtyEight forecasts eight will win:
In all but one case, the forecast results match the partisan lean of the district. "Even if our tolerance for scandal has stayed the same," FiveThirtyEight notes, "it is possible that a more partisan electorate might be more welcoming to a politician under the magnifying glass."