Negotiation Nuances: Nuclear North Korea Requires Planning and Patience

Sukjoon Yoon

Security, Asia

The process of denuclearizing Pyongyang cannot be rushed.

At the Pyongyang summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, held from September 18–20, 2018, a declaration was signed by the ranking military officials of the two Koreas. This agreement is intended to prevent military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, specifically it establishes buffer zones, based on the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) on land, and on the Northern Limit Line (NLL) at sea. Optimists see the agreement as a useful step toward better relations; but pessimists see it as a step too far, given the continuing military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. A balanced appraisal suggests that it is too soon to decide.

The Background to the Agreement

Longstanding tensions. For decades, the Korean Peninsula has remained technically at war, and Koreans have endured recurring military confrontations, with the terrifying prospect of these hostilities escalating into full-scale war. Recent developments have brought hope to all Koreans that the times may finally be changing. Nevertheless, President Moon’s visit to Pyongyang on September 18–20, 2018, to attend a third summit with Kim Jong-un, just two months after the previous one, was remarkable, given the slow progress on North Korean denuclearization. Despite the suspension of ROK-U.S. Combined Military Exercises. To date, North Korea has offered little in return. But this is exactly why the two Koreas need to be working together to break the stalemate.

Whither Denuclearization? The North Koreans have made some efforts, but are still a very long way from the U.S. requirement for “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” denuclearization. Indeed, the North has yet to take the first essential step towards this, by providing a comprehensive inventory of their stockpiled nukes and missiles together with the locations of all their nuclear facilities. If the North Koreans want the United States to believe that they are serious about denuclearization, then they will have to do far more to demonstrate their sincerity.