100% chance of rain today. It was drumming down when I wrote this, so the daily pic will be delayed. I’ll try to add something by 1000. Basically it looks to be lumpy and chest to shoulder on sets at optimally aligned stretches. Wind was SW 9-10kts and water quality from Narrabeen to Manly was not the best according to Beachwatch. Ocean is still on 24C. Out at sea, the MHL buoy was picking up 2.3 metres of SSE (156°) bump at 8 seconds apart.
Tide was high at 0540 and is currently dropping back to the low at 1230.
A quick glance at the swell models, indicates poor surf conditions all week. It could be that today is as big as it gets for the next 7 days. Sure hope the models are wrong on this!
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Sunday 17 March 2019.
Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system lies across the the southern Tasman Sea, while a trough is situated near the New South Wales coast. Overnight a low pressure circulation developed just off the northern coast within this trough, and is expected to move south today and tomorrow. By Monday morning, the low is forecast to be near the south coast, after which time it should weaken somewhat, although the coastal trough looks set to linger through much of the coming week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the afternoon. Winds turning southwesterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 18 March
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning. Winds offshore tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 19 March
Winds
Southwest to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots, tending southwesterly about 10 knots during the day
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Forecast for the rest of Sunday
Summary
Max 23
Showers. Possibly heavy.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%
Sydney area
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, possibly heavy. The chance of a thunderstorm, more likely in the east. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, reaching 20 to 35 km/h near the coast in the afternoon.
Fire Danger – Low-Moderate
Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]
Monday 18 March
Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
Sydney area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds.
Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]
Tuesday 19 March
Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
Sydney area
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.
Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]
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