The demographic time bomb

In the late 1960s, Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies of the Department of Biology of Stanford University, warned that a looming global population explosion would lead to mass starvation and death by the end of the 20th century. This gloomy prediction has fortunately not come true. However, a not so encouraging trend is developing: a worrying fall in fertility rates, especially in industrialised countries.

The latest Eurostat statistics on birth rates in the EU are indeed worrying, especially for Malta. In 2017 we had the lowest fertility rate in the EU with 1.26 births per woman, well below the EU average of 1.59.

It does not take too long even for a non-specialist to understand the economic and social implications of this worrying trend. The EU, and Malta in particular, face difficult times if it does not begin to change.

A shrinking workforce can reduce productivity. At the same time, the growing proportion of older adults threatens the solvency of pensions and social insurance systems. The extended family model, already in decline, will continue to collapse. As household sizes decrease, the ability to care for the elderly diminishes. Meanwhile, older people face...