Saturday Night Five: NCAA bid projections for Washington, ASU and Oregon; Scott and DiStefano on key issues
Insta-reaction to Pac-12 developments on and off the field (and court) …
1. Wrapping Las Vegas.
Viewed through the lens of NCAA Tournament bids — and therefore NCAA Tournament cash — the week’s results could not have worked out better for the conference.
The Hotline outlined the three-bid scenario two weeks ago, and things broke just right at T-Mobile. But more on that in a moment.
The outcome, with Oregon beating Washington for the title, came as no surprise. In fact, the Hotline correctly picked 10 of the 11 winners, the lone whiff coming on the UCLA-Stanford outcome (predictions here in section 2).
I did not, however, expect the Ducks to dismantle UW with such ease.
Then again, the Huskies of March are nothing like the Huskies of January.
UW peaked too early and cruised too long — it would have been better off fighting for the regular-season title into the final weekend.
Only five of the 11 games were decided by single digits, and just three packed substantial drama: Washington-USC, Washington-Colorado and Oregon-Arizona State.
There again is proof of UW’s flatline: The Huskies handled the Buffaloes and Trojans with far more ease in January and February than they did this week.
2. Washington’s fate.
As was noted two weeks ago and repeated above, the Hotline expects three bids for the Pac-12.
Am I confident? Nope, but I view that as the most likely scenario.
Three bids: 55 percent
Two bids: 35 percent
One bid: 10 percent
The team that should be worried isn’t Arizona State but Washington.
The Huskies aren’t playing well, own precious few Quadrant 1 wins and have not beaten a team that would make the at-large field.
The NET rankings get all the attention, but the selection committee will use performance vs. teams in the field (both the entire field and the at-large field) as a tool to differentiate the bubble sitters.
If I’m a Huskies fan, I’d be anxious — not panicked, but anxious.
Hotline projection for UW: In
Seed: 11/First Four
3. Arizona State’s fate.
The Sun Devils probably shouldn’t assume a bid, but the guess here is that they’re fairly safe — that the good on their resume (11 wins vs. Quadrants 1 and 2) will more than offset the bad (four losses vs. Quadrants 3 and 4).
Every selection committee is different in the bottom-line criteria it uses to distinguish teams on the bubble.
The Sun Devils’ greatest obstacle, at least among the metrics, is the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which slots them far below (63rd) their placement in other metrics (RPI, KPI, Sagarin).
We don’t know the NET ingredients — an unfortunate lack of transparency from the NCAA — but the best guess is that ASU’s bad losses (by significant margins) is the reason.
That could be the Sun Devils’ undoing, or not.
As Greg Shaheen, the former NCAA executive who managed the tournament for more than a decade, told the Hotline recently:
“The definition of the NET is whatever the 10 committee members think of it.”
The difference between ASU and Washington is in how they have presented themselves to the committee:
The Sun Devils have proven themselves to be a team that can play tournament-caliber basketball on good days but is somewhat inconsistent.
The Huskies haven’t provided the same level of detail. The lack of quality wins could create uncertainty for committee members, and uncertainty is bad.
Very bad.
“If you don’t tell the story of your team and provide a meaningful reveal of your team for the committee,” Shaheen said, “you lose the right to be surprised by the result.”
Hotline projection for ASU: In.
Seed: 10
4. Oregon’s fate.
The Hotline was far more surprised by Oregon’s seed in the Pac-12 tournament (No. 6) than its victory in the Pac-12 tournament.
The Ducks’ combination of front-court athleticism, wing scoring and floor leadership (Payton Pritchard) was unmatched — it just took coach Dana Altman longer to figure out his rotation and scheme than I expected. (Injuries were a factor in the rate of development.)
The Ducks will be a difficult out for any team they face in the first and second rounds — even if it’s the No. 2 or 3 seed.
And as a conference champion, they cannot get sent to the First Four.
San Jose or Salt Lake City make the most sense for the opening week. But because the Ducks will be a double-digit seed, they won’t have preferential placement.
They could stay west, but there’s no guarantee.
Oregon would be best served with a Friday-Sunday assignment. Even if it means a longer flight, the extra rest seems vital after playing four games in four days.
Hotline projection for Oregon: 11 seed.
5. Off-the-court news.
Commissioner Larry Scott held his annual tournament news conference Saturday with Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano by his side. (DiStefano is chair of the Pac-12 board, the group of presidents and chancellors that runs the conference.)
The Hotline wasn’t there but reviewed the transcript and found several comments worthy of note:
*** Scott on intra-conference dynamics: “There’s been a decided shift toward much more openness and collaboration with our athletics directors and others. So in addition to our board meeting this morning with presidents and chancellors, we had an additional meeting with athletics directors where we were able to discuss some of the most important strategic and policy issues facing the conference that was very well received.” (More on that shift here.)
*** DiStefano on an equity sale: “I would say that we’re, after today, just beyond exploring. We’re actively moving forward reviewing serious offers for this opportunity. And we heard from Joe Ravitch, co-founder of the Raine Group, today about the work they’ve done in recent weeks to find us potential partners … So while we’re a couple of months away from receiving formal offers, I can say that the chancellors, the presidents, the ADs are all aligned with each other in continuing the process with the Raine Group with Larry as our commissioner.”
*** Scott on an equity sale: “We haven’t finalized an amount of money that we’re trying to raise, or a valuation. Those are things that we’re still working on with the Raine Group and having different types of discussions with different partners about. So the numbers that you’ve read in terms of what we’re trying to raise and valuation are not confirmed numbers … The amount of money we raise as part of the process, the valuation, are important; but I’d say they’re secondary to the strategic partnership considerations that we have.” (More on that topic here and here.)
*** Scott on an independent review of basketball officiating: “We’re going to be conducting similar (to football) reviews for men’s and women’s basketball officiating as well, which we just feel is a good hygiene, good governance, something we should probably do every few years anyway, as we’re constantly looking to improve, be as good as we can, in the area of officiating.” (More on that here.)
*** Scott on DirecTV: “Our team would do a deal with DirecTV tomorrow if they were willing, but they haven’t expressed any willingness to enter into an agreement with them.” (More on that here.)
*** Scott on conference expenses: “We are right smack in the middle of Pac-12 Conference expenses compared to the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12. In fact, that was one of the areas that we reviewed this morning, because recent media reports questioned whether Pac-12 Conference expenses are in line or not with our peer conferences. So this morning was a great opportunity, with athletics directors, with presidents, chancellors, to go through a thorough analysis and with a committee that we put together to walk through that.”
*** Scott on the football championship game: “We’ve got a lot of very interesting options including the fact that two of the newest, most significant new football stadiums in the country are being built out here, one in Las Vegas for the Raiders; one in Los Angeles for the Rams. So there’s some very interesting options and possibilities for us as we evaluate.” (More on that here.)
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