Before more MPs commit to May’s Brexit deal, we must remind them how awful it is
The past week in Parliament has left many observers stunned.
From another historic defeat (this time, just the fourth biggest on record) for the prime minister’s deal to the spectacle of a government minister making the case for a motion to the House and then immediately voting against it, there’s been something for everyone.
Even Theresa May had a win: she managed to see off those backbenchers seeking to wrest control of the mess back to Parliament, defeating the Benn amendment by two.
But little, if anything, has changed. It’s very likely that the prime minister will, yet again, bring her Withdrawal Agreement back to Parliament.
With the DUP staying in London over the weekend, and Tory MP after Tory MP folding and suggesting they will support the deal, Mrs May has her best chance yet of getting Parliament’s approval.
Are people forgetting just how awful May’s deal is? We hand over £50billion for the privilege of following every single EU rule and regulation until 2021, without having a say on how they’re made.
Then we either a fall into the backstop, extend the transition, or leave it on the terms of some shiny new trading arrangements.
In reality, as few economists think a trade deal between the EU and the UK can be ready by the end of 2021 (Ivan Rogers, the UK’s most senior civil servant with the EU before he resigned, said it could take up to 10 years!), the choice is between extending the transition period or entering the backstop.
Young people are struggling enough as it is – from a housing crisis, to an epidemic of poor mental health, to the challenges of climate change, we desperately need the focus of government not to be consumed by negotiations.
Extending the transition period will mean continued large payments in return for continued vassalage. The backstop is a necessary insurance policy to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland, but it is a deeply imperfect and uncomfortable position for the UK to be in.
Given these choices, the UK could be desperate to get a trade deal done. And our desperation will give the EU all the leverage in the negotiations on our future relationship.
We will not only be over a barrel during the negotiations, but also once they’ve been concluded. Every EU member state will have a veto over the trade agreement we negotiate with the EU.
Spain may test our will on Gibraltar, France may come for our fishing waters, but the country with the most legitimate concerns, and one that is highly likely to exercise its veto, will be the Republic of Ireland.
Once the trade deal has been concluded, the Irish prime minister will have a choice of maintaining the completely open border that will exist (because we will be in the backstop or transition period), or taking the risk of entering a trade agreement that, unless it involves continuing our status as a rule taker, can only make the Irish border harder.
Any Irish prime minister will be under enormous domestic political pressure to veto the deal.
The worst part, however, of May’s deal is that because it offers no clarity about our future relationship with Europe, it can provide no closure.
Young people are struggling enough as it is – from a housing crisis, to an epidemic of poor mental health, to the challenges of climate change, we desperately need the focus of government not to be consumed by negotiations.
Already, we have lost two and a half years, our country seemingly at a standstill while other countries work cooperatively to solve the big problems.
In the early 2020s, it will become painfully apparent, as we remain stuck in the transition period or backstop, that the current situation is untenable and deeply sub-optimal.
The debate will be raging on. Farage and the European Research Group will persist, arguing the only remedy is a clean break, tearing up an international treaty we signed, and to go global.
Others, such as myself, would argue the only sensible solution is to accept it hasn’t worked out, and return to our seat at the top table.
But by then, we’d have to rejoin under article 49 – and other EU states would be loath to give us back our current, special, deal.
The only clarity May’s Deal offers is that we’ll be spending the next decade discussing Brexit. That is why it must be rejected next week.
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