Bracketology 2019: Happy Selection Sunday! Much is still up in the air (for once)

Unusually, the order of the top two seed lines is far more in doubt than it usually is mere hours from the Selection Show.

At 6 p.m. Eastern tonight, the Selection Committee will announce the full field of 68 — the old-fashioned way, region-by-region, with no alphabetical rundown of teams first. (Thank you, CBS.) Considering how there’s still plenty of mystery surrounding the No. 1 and 2 seed lines, returning to that tried and tested format looks like an inspired move.

As I wrote last night, two of the No. 1 seeds look to be set in stone. However, after last night’s ACC Tournament title win over the Florida State Seminoles, the 29-5 Duke Blue Devils have likely jumped the 29-3 Virginia Cavaliers for the top spot overall — one that comes with a position atop the geographically-convenient East regional in Washington, D.C. While the Cavaliers have a better winning percentage than the Blue Devils and remain the No. 1 team in the NET, Duke has two wins over Virginia and they should also receive consideration for the six games tournament MVP Zion Williamson missed, particularly with their performance upon his return on Thursday. As for Virginia, they look to be sent to the South region, which could mean a potential regional final matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats in Louisville, a mere 75-minute drive from Lexington.

And I still have the 28-4 Tennessee Volunteers (Midwest) and 30-3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (West) in the final two spots on the one line. But this could change based on today’s two biggest games. The Volunteers take on the Auburn Tigers, a particularly difficult matchup for them, in the SEC Tournament final (1 p.m., ESPN). Bruce Pearl’s club has defeated Rick Barnes’ outfit in each of the last two seasons, including a 84-80 win at Auburn Arena on March 9th. A Tennessee loss would open the door for the top No. 2 seed, the North Carolina Tar Heels, to jump up, likely ensuring that we will have three No. 1 seeds from one conference, the ACC. The 2009 NCAA Tournament was the last, and only, time that happened, as Louisville, UConn and Pitt were all selected as top seeds out of the then-16-team Big East.

But there’s yet another contender yet to be heard from and that’s the 27-6 Michigan State Spartans. They’ll look to knock off the Michigan Wolverines for the third time this season — a result that would also prevent their archrivals from claiming a third consecutive Big Ten Tournament title (3:30 p.m., CBS). However, a pair of losses to Indiana and another at Illinois could be costly for Tom Izzo’s club, particularly if the Committee is focusing on the quality of defeats this season, which seems like a real possibility.

While the Houston Cougars can move to a staggering 32-2 with a win over the Cincinnati Bearcats in the American Athletic final (3:15 p.m., ESPN), I don’t think they can move higher than a two seed, and they’re likely to remain a No. 3. This is due to a combination of factors, but a home-heavy non-conference schedule (the type of thing that happens when you want to show off a remodeled arena) hurts Kelvin Sampson’s team the most in this race. Of the top nine teams in the field, Houston is the only one without a victory over a likely No. 1 or No. 2 seed. And given the Committee’s love for marquee wins, that’s trouble.

This morning’s full bracket projection, the penultimate one of the season, follows.

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Saturday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. DUKE (ACC) vs. *16. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)/NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
8. Seton Hall vs. 9. VCU

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

5. IOWA STATE (Big 12) vs. ↑12. LIBERTY (ASUN)
4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. VERMONT (Am. East)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

6. Maryland vs. 11. Arizona State/St. John’s
3. LSU vs. 14. MONTANA (Big Sky)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

7. Louisville vs. 10. UCF
2. Michigan vs. 15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon)

4. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga vs. 16. ABILENE CHRISTIAN (Southland)
8. UTAH STATE (MW) vs. 9. Oklahoma

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

↑5. Auburn vs. 12. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
↓4. Kansas vs. 13. UC IRVINE (Big West)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

↑6. BUFFALO (MAC) vs. 11. TCU
3. Florida State vs. *14. St. Bonaventure (A 10)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

7. Nevada vs. ↑10. Florida
2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15. COLGATE (Patriot)

2. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia vs. 16. IONA (MAAC)
8. Iowa vs. 9. Baylor

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

5. VILLANOVA (Big East) vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
4. Purdue vs. 13. OLD DOMINION (C-USA)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

6. Marquette vs. ↓11. Washington/Belmont
↑3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

↓7. Cincinnati vs. 10. SAINT MARY’S (WCC)
↓2. Kentucky vs. 15. BRADLEY (MVC)

3. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

↑1. Tennessee (SEC) vs. 16. FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (NEC)/PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)
8. Minnesota vs. ↑9. Syracuse

San José (Fri./Sun.)

↓5. Kansas State vs. *12. OREGON (Pac-12)
↑4. Wisconsin vs. 13. NORTHEASTERN (CAA)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

↓6. Mississippi State vs. 11. Ohio State
3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

7. WOFFORD (SoCon) vs. 10. Ole Miss
↓2. North Carolina vs. 15. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South)

Last Four Byes: Florida, Ole Miss, TCU, Ohio State
Last Four IN: Washington, Arizona State, St. John’s, Belmont
First Four OUT: NC State, Indiana, Texas, Temple
Next Four OUT: Alabama, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Clemson

Bids by Conference: 8 Big Ten, 7 ACC, 7 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 Big East, 3 American, 3 Pac-12, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 Mountain West, 2 Ohio Valley, 2 West Coast, 21 one-bid conferences

Late last night, the Oregon Ducks became 2019’s final bubble popper by blasting the Washington Huskies for the second Saturday in succession, 68-48. That led to more shuffling near the cut line, something I’ve covered in Sunday morning’s look at the bubble.

After this afternoon’s games, along with a final scrub of the seed list and evaluation of the teams, I’ll publish my final projection of 2019 just before the Selection Show.