Oregon’s Pac-12 title win knocked an at-large bid out of the picture ... or did it?

For most of Saturday, fans of bubble teams got good news left and right. First, the Houston Cougars eliminated the host Memphis Tigers in the first American Athletic semifinal, with the Cincinnati Bearcats doing the same to the Wichita State Shockers a couple of hours later. In the Mountain West title game, the Utah State Aggies took out another threat in the San Diego State Aztecs. Then, in Cleveland, the Buffalo Bulls pulled away from the Bowling Green Falcons to ensure the MAC’s continued single-bid status. (The conference last earned an at-large in 1999.)

But things changed significantly late in the evening, and if any East Coast fans decided not to stay up for the second half of the Pac-12 Tournament final, they woke up to some bad news. By winning for the fourth time in four days in Las Vegas, the Oregon Ducks earned their place in the field by blowing out the conference’s regular-season champion, the Washington Huskies, 68-48. And by losing to Dana Altman’s club in unimpressive fashion on two consecutive Saturdays, Mike Hopkins’ Huskies might just meet the same fate as Washington’s 2012 Pac-12 champions. That’s the last power conference regular-season champion left out of the NCAA Tournament.

And with this season’s bubble-related action now complete, here’s how my projected cut line looks on the morning of the Selection Show. As I wrote all the way back on Thursday, our answer will be determined by which factor the Committee values the most — the NET, quality wins or schedule strength.

Note: Team records and NET data reflect games played through Saturday, March 16, 2019. (Info from WarrenNolan.com.)

See today’s full bracket post to the specific locations of the Last Four In within the field.

Last Four IN

Last four byes: Florida, Ole Miss, TCU, Ohio State

Washington (26-8; 15-3 Pac-12)
NET: 45; Quadrant 1 (Q1) record: 2-4; Quadrant 2 (Q2) record: 8-3; road/neutral record: 11-7; strength of schedule (SOS): 50; non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS): 13

While the Huskies’ metrics are favorable for selection, and they’ve played respectably away from Seattle, their lack of quality wins, a factor the Committee heavily favors, leaves them in a bit of danger. Washington’s best victory came over 51st-ranked Oregon in Eugene on January 24th, and as I mentioned above they’ve since played the Ducks twice and looked terrible in both contests. And while the Huskies played a robust non-conference schedule, they lost each and every game that could have given them some breathing room — against Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Auburn and Minnesota. A Pac-12 title should be enough for Washington, but with the conference way down this season, a repeat of 2012 can’t be ruled out until the Huskies hear their names called out after 3 p.m. Pacific today.

Arizona State (22-10; 12-6 Pac-12)
NET: 63; Q1 record: 3-3; Q2 record: 8-3; road/neutral record: 9-7; SOS: 70; NCSOS: 53

For the second year straight, it might be the Sun Devils’ non-conference wins that push them over the finish line. Not only did Arizona State defeat Kansas again, but they also picked up a pair of helpful victories over Mississippi State and Utah State over Thanksgiving week in Las Vegas. Plus, they defeated Washington and Oregon in conference play. These wins balance out ASU’s inconsistency in a bad Pac-12 and a pair of troubling non-league losses, to a Vanderbilt team that went winless in the SEC and Princeton. Those setbacks, two of the five Arizona State recorded against teams from outside of the NET top 100, deflate their own ranking and threaten to make their selection a very close call.

St. John’s (21-12; 8-10 Big East)
NET: 73; Q1 record: 5-7; Q2 record: 5-3; road/neutral record: 7-7; SOS: 73; NCSOS: 218

Thursday night’s blowout loss to Marquette, a team the Red Storm swept during the regular season, particularly because of a NET ranking that’s dropped outside of the top 70. Thanks to five Quad 1 wins and a 10-10 record in Quad 1 and 2 games, St. John’s should be in the field, with victories over the Golden Eagles, Villanova and VCU looking particularly helpful. However, a weak non-conference schedule and some serious inconsistency in Big East play, including a regular-season sweep at the hands of last-place DePaul will give the Johnnies reason to sweat, even if they did defeat the Blue Demons on Wednesday night.

Belmont (25-5; 16-2 OVC)
NET: 47; Q1 record: 2-2; Q2 record: 3-1; road/neutral record: 13-4; SOS: 196; NCSOS: 74

The Bruins have nearly everything the Selection Committee wants in an at-large candidate, except for a marquee victory. Most notably, Belmont owns a strong road/neutral record and 5-3 record in a limited slate of Quad 1 and 2 games. Honestly, Rick Byrd’s squad would have been an easy pick had Jacksonville State not swept the pair’s regular-season series. While the Bruins’ 17 Quad 4 wins are a major obstacle to selection, 14 of those came in league play, so a top 75 non-conference schedule did its part. Plus, the presence of six mid-major representatives on the Committee could help the Bruins sneak in, particularly in a season where the power-conference competition is heavily-flawed.

First Four OUT

NC State (22-11; 9-9 ACC)
NET: 33; Q1 record: 3-9; Q2 record: 5-0; road/neutral record: 7-7; SOS: 179; NCSOS: 353

If the NET dominates the Committee’s decisions, the Wolfpack will be in with room to spare and this whole conversation will look extremely silly. But if the selectors dig into NC State’s profile, they’ll have their doubts, at least based on past Committee behavior. Even though the Wolfpack owns three Quad 1 wins and eight across Quads 1 and 2, just two came over likely NCAA Tournament qualifiers, Auburn and Syracuse — both at home. Then there’s the schedule, and while we can (and will) debate the merits of the non-conference slate, an ACC lineup featuring nine games against the bottom of the conference didn’t boost the Wolfpack’s overall scheduling ranking as much as anticipated. Of their nine ACC wins, just one came over a likely NCAA team, Syracuse, and State managed to lose to both Wake Forest (without Markell Johnson) and Georgia Tech. And it’s the combination of a lack of non-conference scheduling ambition and an unfortunate ACC lineup that may burn Kevin Keatts’ squad when all is said and done.

Indiana (17-15; 8-12 Big Ten)
NET: 54; Q1 record: 6-9; Q2 record: 2-6; road/neutral record: 4-10; SOS: 57; NCSOS: 206

Had the Hoosiers knocked off Ohio State in Thursday’s Big Ten Tournament second round, they would be in the field at the moment. And thanks to five top 30 wins and an absence of Quad 3 and 4 losses, the Hoosiers have a shot at earning a surprise bid. However, inconsistency, best reflected in Indiana’s 2-6 mark in winnable Quadrant 2 games, will likely relegate Archie Miller’s club to the NIT.

Texas (16-16; 8-10 Big 12)
NET: 38; Q1 record: 5-10; Q2 record: 4-5; road/neutral record: 4-10; SOS: 6; NCSOS: 18

Had the Longhorns reached the Big 12 final, they could have been the first 16-loss at-large team selected for the NCAA Tournament field. But Texas needed to both defeat Kansas in the quarterfinals and win a semifinal to record an 18-16 finish with a title game appearance. However, Thursday’s loss to the Jayhawks guaranteed a .500 record and I don’t think the Committee is going to select such a team to fill one of the 36 at-large spots available. That’s likely true even with the Longhorns’ top 40 NET ranking, five Quad 1 wins and lofty strength of schedule rankings.

Temple (23-9; 13-5 American Athletic)
NET: 56; Q1 record: 2-6; Q2 record: 6-2; road/neutral record: 10-7; SOS: 83; NCSOS: 223

The Owls’ case largely rests on two home wins — one over UCF last Saturday and January 9th’s stunner over Houston. Otherwise, the highlights of Temple’s profile are a decent 10-7 record away from home and a lack of disappointing losses, with Friday night’s loss to Wichita State taking some shine off both. The Owls probably needed to win two games in Memphis to send Fran Dunphy to one last NCAA Tournament before retirement. But they didn’t, and now they must wait to see if that dream can become reality.

Next four out: Alabama, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Clemson