Very Preliminary Value Add Projections Put MU 30th, Powell & Markus Possible National POY
I purposely just follow my script of what a players value should be this year based on his year in school and the normal progression based on last year's value, as well as rankings of freshmen, JUCOS and www.nbadraft.net rankings. While I have a system for mapping transfers, it is certainly not foil proof, and there are certainly other places errors can be made such as I assume anyone I had down as a senior is no longer eligible, but of course in some cases they are. I also purposely do not spend any extra time adjusting Marquette or other Big East players - if there wasn't already something in the system that would "automatically" generate a projected rankings, then they have a 0.00 for now because that is what would happen with all other teams.
With all those qualifiers, the following are a few tables.
First, in the Big East Villanova ranks 11th in the country, Creighton 22nd,and Marquette 30th for the top three spots. I did not look to see if this jives with preseason forecasts, just ran the numbers with what I had in the system. I also rank every team based on NBA potential, giving each player a ranking of 100 (best) to 1 (longshot) based on DraftNet rankings and then giving each team the total of their players plus 25 extra for each player (so Markus is an 86, which gives MU a 111 which would rank MU 33rd based just on NBA talent.
| Team Projection | Rank | Value Add | NBA Talent Rank | Players | NBA Prospects | NBA Talent | 2019 Rank | 2019 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | 11 | 42.17 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 261 | 30 | 6 |
| Creighton | 22 | 36.96 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 112 | 55 | NIT2 |
| Marquette | 30 | 34.13 | 39 | 14 | 1 | 111 | 33 | 5 |
| Seton Hall | 34 | 32.94 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 28 | 60 | 10 |
| Xavier | 45 | 31.46 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 121 | 65 | NIT3 |
| Georgetown | 52 | 30.97 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 204 | 100 | NIT3 |
| Butler | 64 | 28.67 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 87 | 72 | NIT5 |
| Providence | 72 | 27.16 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 263 | 79 | NIT4 |
| DePaul | 114 | 19.91 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 139 | 118 | |
| St. John's | 138 | 18.16 | 66 | 9 | 1 | 59 | 88 | 11 |
Second, here are the Top 25 players that pop up in the projections, and interestingly DraftNet does not have Myles Powell showing up as a prospect yet but he does project as the second best player in the country, whereas they are ranking Markus a good bit higher this year even though he projects just a shade below Powell in 6th in the preseason projections (I did meet with the founder of DraftNet in San Francisco last year and his track record is pretty amazing). Here are the top 25 projected players - and yes please point out any place I am listing someone on the wrong team or who has left.
| Name | Rank | Team | Value Add 5 | Ht | Class | NBA? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassius Winston | 1 | Michigan St. | 12.34 | 6'1" | Sr | 74 |
| Myles Powell | 2 | Seton Hall | 11.16 | 6'2 | Sr | |
| Sam Merrill | 3 | Utah St. | 10.18 | 6'5 | Sr | |
| James Wiseman | 4 | Memphis | 10 | 7'0" | Fr | 98 |
| Jordan Ford | 5 | Saint Mary's | 9.99 | 6'1 | Sr | |
| Markus Howard | 6 | Marquette | 9.83 | 5'11 | Sr | 86 |
| Jon Axel Gudmundsson | 7 | Davidson | 9.64 | 6'5 | Sr | |
| Isaiah Stewart | 8 | Washington | 9.5 | 6'9" | Fr | 99 |
| Anthony Lamb | 9 | Vermont | 9.47 | 6'6 | Sr | |
| Davide Moretti | 10 | Texas Tech | 9.17 | 6'2" | Jr | |
| Desmond Bane | 11 | TCU | 9.10 | 6'5" | Sr | 34 |
| Terry Taylor | 12 | Austin Peay | 9.09 | 6'5 | Jr | |
| Grant Riller | 13 | Charleston | 9.03 | 6'3 | Sr | |
| Anthony Edwards | 14 | Georgia | 9 | 6'4" | Fr | 100 |
| Devon Dotson | 15 | Kansas | 8.91 | 6'2 | So | 70 |
| Jarron Cumberland | 16 | Cincinnati | 8.84 | 6'5 | Sr | 12 |
| Cameron Reddish | 17 | Duke | 8.8 | 6'7 | 1 Fr | |
| Tres Tinkle | 18 | Oregon St. | 8.8 | 6'8 | Sr | 30 |
| Kerry Blackshear | 19 | Florida | 8.78 | 6'10" | Sr | 68 |
| Xavier Tillman | 20 | Michigan St. | 8.78 | 6'8" | Jr | |
| Skylar Mays | 21 | LSU | 8.70 | 6'4" | Sr | |
| Obi Toppin | 22 | Dayton | 8.64 | 6'9 | So | 71 |
| Ignas Brazdeikis | 23 | Michigan | 8.52 | 6'7" | So | 88 |
| Cole Anthony | 24 | North Carolina | 8.5 | 6'2" | Fr | 99 |
| Tyreke Key | 25 | Indiana St. | 8.48 | 6'2 | Jr |
Finally as you scroll through the sheet it is organized team by team. If I know a player is not eligible until next season then you see a /2021 by the team name. If I do not have a figure for a player yet, then they have a 0 for now - not an indication that they will not have value,just that they are not ranked yet. Very interesting that besides Markus, MU has two centers projected to be in the top 15% of all players in Theo and Jayce, Ed Morrow is just behind them, and it will be interesting to see if he shoots higher as a true power forward instead of an undersized center, as well as if Symir Torrence is already as strong as he projects - or if the reports of Koby McEwen being even better than his ranking would indicate bear out.
| Marquette Player | Proj Value Add | Class | NBA Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter Akanno | 0 | Fr | ||
| Sacar Anim | 2.25 | 6'5 | Sr | |
| Brendan Bailey | 2.09 | 6'8 | So | |
| Jamal Cain | 1.04 | 6'7 | Jr | |
| Brendan Carney | 0 | |||
| Greg Elliott | 3 | 6'3 | So | |
| Tommy Gardiner | 0 | So | ||
| Markus Howard | 9.83 | 5'11 | Sr | 86 |
| Osasere Ighodaro/2021 | 0 | |||
| Theo John | 3.55 | 6'9 | Jr | |
| Jayce Johnson | 3.6 | 7'0 | Sr | |
| Michael Kennedy | 0 | |||
| Justin Lewis/2021 | 0 | |||
| Koby McEwen | 2.36 | 6'4 | Jr | |
| Ed Morrow | 3.37 | 6'7 | Sr | |
| Symir Torrence | 3.04 | 6'3" | Fr | |
| Team | 34.13 | 111 |
That is a quick summary of a cram job to try to get as much as I could organized and into the sheet. It is not on the www.valueaddbasketball.com website yet because I want a few eyes to see it first to note any obvious mistakes.