Bringing Back Zack Wheeler Should Be a Top Priority
Right-hander Zack Wheeler is the biggest Mets name to hit the open market this winter, but the team should do everything in their power to bring him back for 2020 and beyond.
Wheeler, 29, has thrived the last two seasons for the Mets as he’s entered his prime years, being worth nearly 9 fWAR in 2018-19.
At this point, it seems as though New York will extend Wheeler a qualifying offer ($17.9 million on a one year deal. If Wheeler rejects it and signs with a new team, the Mets would be compensated with a draft pick in the 2020 draft). However, New York should consider locking him up on a multi-year contract.
After a rollercoaster start to his career where Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for two seasons, the right-hander returned to the Mets rotation in 2017 to mixed results (5.21 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 0.2 fWAR). In 2018 though, Wheeler came in to his own and became the pitcher the Mets thought they were getting when they acquired him from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran in 2011.
Wheeler complemented ace Jacob deGrom at the top of the Mets rotation this past season, and while New York has a plethora of talent in Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman behind them, losing Wheeler would be a big blow to New York.
With all the trades that have been made in the past season, New York’s farm system is not what it once was. Future rotation hopefuls Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay have been sent elsewhere, and David Peterson looks like he needs a bit more time in the minors, and doesn’t have the ceiling that he once did.
The other Mets’ in-house options to replace Wheeler if he walks via free agency are less than desirable. Walker Lockett had a few spot starts for New York in 2019 and was touched up to the tune of a 8.34 ERA in nine games (four starts). Beyond that, there is Corey Oswalt and Chris Flexen, neither of which have been able to make anything stick at the big league level, and Drew Gagnon who is a fringe MLB player at best.
One potential solution to replace Wheeler in the rotation would be to shift Seth Lugo from a dominant reliever back into a starter, but doing so would only further weaken a thin bullpen.
There has been speculation that the Mets will simply sign a “fifth starter type” on the open market, but doing so is a lateral move that doesn’t frankly make sense. You aren’t going to find someone who is going to give you the production Wheeler does, and it’s unlikely that Syndergaard, Stroman and Steven Matz are going to be able to ramp it up enough to soften the blow of losing Wheeler.
The Mets have a lot on their agenda this winter. They have to find a new manager, a new bench coach and perhaps even more coaches depending how the rest of the winter shakes out, need to improve their bullpen and need a new outfielder at minimum in addition to solving the Wheeler situation.
It seems as though money is going to be an issue for the Mets this winter, but if they want to contend in 2020, they are going to have to stretch payroll, and Wheeler should be part of that ultimate offseason plan.