Saturday Night Five: Oregon edges Washington State, UCLA and ASU swap scripts and checking on the conference resume
Insta-reaction to Pac-12 developments on (and off) the field …
1. That didn’t stink.
For all the upsets, for all the parity and bizarre finishes, the Pac-12 went two months without a signature game.
Washington State-UCLA was fabulous theatre but not well played.
Oregon-Washington, for all its action and momentum swings, didn’t involve a last-second score.
On Saturday night … late Saturday night … the Ducks and Cougars delivered a high-stakes thriller over nearly four hours (with much of that time spent waiting for replay reviews).
The Ducks survived 37-35 to remain alive in the playoff race despite a superb performance by the Cougars.
(Hard to believe that was the same team we saw get run off the field a few weeks ago at Utah.)
The back-and-forth affair had everything, including a phenomenal performance by Oregon tailback C.J. Verdell (257 yards rushing), stout red zone defense, turnovers and big plays, pressure throws, controversial calls — the pass interference on Thomas Graham on WSU’s touchdown drive, for example — and a masterful finish.
Washington State went 90 yards in eight plays for the go-ahead touchdown with one minute remaining.
Oregon responded with a 53-yard drive that set up the winning field goal, a 26-yarder by freshman Camden Lewis as time expired.
Washington State quarterback Anthony Gordon was terrific, while Justin Herbert, although not asked to carry the load because of Oregon’s productive running game, made the throws he had to make in the final minute.
That’s two weeks in a row, by the way, that Herbert has led the Ducks to a come-from behind-victory … that he has been ice under pressure … that he has raised Oregon’s level of play … that he has answered critics and shown the qualities coveted by teams at the top of the NFL Draft.
The playoff race provided a dramatic backdrop to the proceedings, and will for as long as the Ducks keep winning. But their situation hasn’t changed as much as one might think in the aftermath of Oklahoma’s loss:
The Ducks still need to win out, and they still need loads of help.
Oklahoma, Penn State/Ohio State, Alabama/LSU, Georgia/Florida and Clemson are very much involved.
And the Ducks looked a tad vulnerable tonight:
Yes, the Cougars played well, especially on offense.
But let’s keep in mind that Oregon struggled at home against a team that was 1-3 in conference play and is 109th nationally in yards-per-play allowed.
If the Ducks hope to remain in the playoff conversation through November, then tonight’s performance cannot be their best of the stretch run.
2. Scoreboard watching.
We spent a few minutes Saturday evening perusing the scores from across the country, always with an eye for how results might impact the Pac-12.
Oklahoma’s loss helps the conference, just as it helps any league hoping to place a team — or two teams — into the playoff.
But as we examined the scoreboard, the following reality became indisputable:
The Pac-12 is utterly and completely lacking a quality non-conference win.
Remember that Stanford victory over Northwestern in Week One? The Wildcats are 1-6.
Colorado over Nebraska in Week Two? The Cornhuskers just lost to Minnesota and Indiana back-to-back.
That Arizona State win at Michigan State sure looked good at the time. Now? Not so much: The Spartans are 4-4 after losing 28-7 to Penn State, which followed a 38-0 loss to Wisconsin, which followed a 34-10 loss to Ohio State.
Cal’s win at Ole Miss? The Rebels are 3-5.
Arizona’s win over Texas Tech? Sorry, the Red Raiders are 3-4.
It’s certainly not USC’s win over Fresno State, which is 3-4.
Or Washington and Utah’s wins over BYU, which is 3-4.
Or Washington State’s win over Houston, which is 3-5
As of now, the Pac-12 doesn’t own a victory over a team ranked in the AP poll or a team in the ‘also receiving votes’ category.
And that could conspire to undermine the resumes of teams throughout the conference, which in turn, has a trickle up impact on Utah and Oregon in their playoff pushes. (More on that below.)
3. Don’t look now, but …
Two weeks ago, Arizona State was 5-1 overall and tied for first place in the South after a victory over Washington State.
UCLA was regrouping after a blowout home loss to Oregon State dropped the Bruins to 1-5.
But as October comes to a close, the scripts have flipped: UCLA’s warming up; and the Sun Devils are cooling off.
The Bruins have been fortunate on two fronts: They caught Stanford when the Cardinal was forced to play a third-string, freshman quarterback.
Then came a home game, with extra time to prepare, against Arizona State at its most vulnerable — after a bruising road loss to Utah.
The Hotline chronicled the fate of teams the week after facing the Utes, whose physical style typically exacts a toll on opponents.
We termed it The Week After Utah effect, and the evidence is substantial: In the past three-and-a-half seasons, teams are 3-11 on the road after facing the Utes.
Sure enough, the Sun Devils couldn’t compete with UCLA for three quarters.
Disregard the final score (42-32); the game wasn’t close: UCLA led 42-10 before the Sun Devils scored a series of garbage time touchdowns.
By all means, credit the Bruins for taking advantage of the opportunities — for getting Stanford and ASU at ideal times and for executing as well as they have in the Chip Kelly era.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has limited his mistake, the defense is not an embarrassment, and the running game is humming.
(UCLA rushed for 488 yards against the Cardinal and Sun Devils.)
As a result, the Bruins are alone in third place in the South with Colorado coming to town.
Barring an upset, UCLA will be 4-2 in conference play by the end of next week.
Clearly, that would be a sign of the apocalypse.
4. Devilish back-to-back.
The Sun Devils, on the other hand, are staggering:
The offense isn’t generating big plays, the defense is wobbly, especially up front, and players on both sides of scrimmage are losing their composure.
We’ve lost count of the number of personal foul penalties (roughing the passer, unsportsmanlike conduct, etc.) ASU has committed the past two games.
Next up: A week off, which the Sun Devils desperately need.
After that, USC comes calling.
Then the Devils head to Corvallis (tricky) before finishing at home against Oregon and Arizona.
If the Sun Devils don’t regain their footing over this two-week break, they could end up closer to last place than first in the South.
5. Cannibalism, updated.
It’s not quite November, and the Pac-12 has just two teams with fewer than three losses.
Utah is 7-1, Oregon is 7-1, and everyone else has at least three losses.
That is, by far, the lowest total of zero/one/two-loss teams in the Power Five.
ACC: four teams (with fewer than three losses)Big 12: fiveBig Ten: sevenPac-12: twoSEC: six
How does that compare to previous years?
It’s perfectly Pac-12, actually. This time last season, the conference had just two teams (Washington State and Utah) with fewer than three losses.
It makes for fabulous theatre, but it’s suboptimal for College Football Playoff purposes.
Key point, which we’ll no doubt repeat over the coming weeks:
Results up and down the conference matter, even if they don’t directly impact the teams in the CFP race.
The selection committee weighs strength-of-schedule and wins against ranked teams during its evaluation process.
Arizona State’s loss to UCLA doesn’t directly impact Oregon’s record, but it undermines ASU’s case for a top-25 spot which, in turn, limits the number of ranked teams on Oregon’s resume.
Same goes for Washington when the Huskies lose to Stanford and Cal.
And the same goes for USC when the Trojans lose to BYU and Notre Dame.
It’s all interconnected, even when it doesn’t appear to be.
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