Should Edwin Diaz Be Mets’ Closer in 2020?
Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets sent a huge package to the Seattle Mariners in order to acquire lock down closer Edwin Diaz.
However, upon coming to the Mets, Diaz didn’t quite live up to his 2018 season where he made his first All-Star Game and had a 1.96 ERA coupled with 57 saves.
The first month of Diaz’s tenure with the Mets was solid, as he locked down eight saves and recorded a 1.54 ERA in 13 games, but after that his ERA per month was as follows: 5.06 (May), 8.38 (June), 6.30 (July), 6.23 (August) and 7.36 (September).
It was a rough and frustrating season for the right-hander, who overall finished the year with a 5.59 ERA, -0.6 rWAR and was bounced out of the closer role before the season even ended.
The Puerto Rico native is under team control through 2023, but is set to receive a hefty boost in arbitration this season, with MLB Trade Rumors predicting he will make somewhere in the $5 million range next year.
One of the big issues for Diaz between 2018 and 2019 was the change in his slider.
Diaz is mostly a two-pitch thrower; he has a four-seam fastball that averages 98 mph, and in 2018 when he had a career year, he coupled it with a devastating slider.
In 2019, perhaps due to the change in baseballs, Diaz was unable to effectively throw his slider like he had in the past and he suffered from it.
According to Baseball Savant, the barrel rate against Diaz skyrocketed from 3.8 percent, which was one of the best in the league, all the way up to 10.1 percent, one of the worst in the league.
The hard hit rate against him also went through the roof, all the way up 10 percent from the year prior.
There are still some redeeming qualities in Diaz’s game. His punch out percentage was in line with his career numbers, his xWOBA, xSLG and xBA are all still in the upper echelon of the league, while his fastball velocity and fastball spin are as well. He’s also only going to be 26-years-old next season, so there’s hope he can turn it back around.
However, should he be penciled right back in as closer this winter and into the Spring, or should he have to work his way back to it?
Unfortunately for the Mets, they’re in a bit of a pickle. Seth Lugo has turned into one of the premier relievers in baseball, but has aspirations of starting. Should the Mets lose out on Zack Wheeler in free agency, they could choose to use Lugo as a starter again.
If not, Lugo should get every opportunity to be the Mets guy in the bullpen to use in high leverage situations.
Their only other current in house option would be former closer Jeurys Familia, who had just as miserable of a season as Diaz did.
Considering what the Mets gave up for Diaz, it’s feasible to believe he will come into 2020 with a clean slate and every opportunity to close.
If the Mets are able to dump Jeurys Familia’s salary and two-year’s remaining on his contract, they could bring in some insurance on the open market. Pitchers like Steve Cishek, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Brandon Kintzler, and a few others are free agents this winter and could be appealing names for New York.
For Diaz though, I’m sure the hope is that he can rebound to his 2018 form. For what the Mets gave up for him, their hopes of competing in 2020 and the years left of control, him rebounding would be aces.