Top Dodger Prospects: An Independent Appraisal
The Dodgers trade rumors this week got me thinking about their farm system. This morning I did some of my own evaluation on some of the top Dodgers prospects and also Alex Verdugo. Time limitations allowed for watching only a select group of prospects and I did not watch notable guys like Keibert Ruiz (catcher), Jeter Downs (MIF) and others. I’m not good at evaluating catchers anyway so no loss. At the end of this, I ranked how these Dodger prospects (Lux, May, Gray, Busch and Gonsolin) would fit in the top Indians prospect list I made on this board earlier this offseason. Lux has been prominently rumored in talks but there’s more that may fit. I'm not advocating for a Lindor trade. I think the Indians need to consider many things beyond players, including external factors like how they view the next CBA will look after 2021 (will low service time players get paid sooner?) and what the White Sox and Twins do this offseason, but this exercise is completed just to expand on rumors and for the sake of fun.
Gavin Lux (2b): Lux is obviously a very good prospect. Excellent bat speed and he absolutely tore up AA and AAA in 2019. As a HS prospect he was an athletic, twitchy and projectable guy but today looks meaningfully different with the added strength. He is still athletic with middle infield capabilities to go with his offensive upside. He has probably moved himself off SS with the added strength and he has notable issues with throwing accuracy. Lux’s added strength reduces a need for a load in his swing as he gears up and this aspect of his swing looks better in 2019 compared to 2018 but it does still show up at times and it worries me for strike outs. Lux is clearly a talented hitter but over 1,047 MiLB PA’s in 2018-2019 his BABIP was 0.386. He should be a high BABIP guy, but I see some strike out in him with his load and it feels like his value is quite elevated right now. Trading for him now would be buying high on Lux, in my opinion, and I don’t think he is as polished of a hitter as he is commonly believed to be. Obviously very good prospect but I don’t think he is a "must have" in any potential Lindor trade.
Dustin May (RHP, SP): Think Bronson Arroyo sitting 94-97 mph with his FB. May is very tall and rangy at 6’6", 180 lbs with excellent leverage. May’s FB has excellent tailing life and sometimes looks like a mid 90’s CH it moves so much. May frequently throws a 90-92 mph cutter that resembles a SL and it is his primary outpitch now. He also throws a very good CB in the 83-84 mph range that has very good downward break, but he does not command it well yet. May commanded his cutter meaningfully better than his FB in the starts I saw. May’s walks have been low as a professional, but he is not precise with his FB command. He has a hard time pinpointing his spots with his FB (perhaps b/c of the movement) but he is often in the strike zone. His lack of FB command, which I grade as a few notches below MLB average, is one reason why his strike out totals are not higher in the minor leagues. Another reason is b/c his CB command is not good yet. May is really difficult on righties but lefties give him trouble. His arm slot isn’t as effective vs. lefties and he does not have an outpitch vs. them. I never saw a CH. May is effective running his cutter inside on lefties but he does not have another way to attack them outside of his FB. May is only 22 years old and he has clear potential to be a front of the rotation starter, but I don’t think he is ready to be a SP in MLB. (1) Too dependent on his FB and CT and needs to show more looks to batters to make it through the order multiple times, (2) he needs more consistency in his delivery leading to better FB command (he misses badly too often for a MLB pitcher), (3) CB is very good but he can’t execute with it yet and (4) he needs to develop a CH to use vs. lefties. Excellent upside but he needs to develop further in the minor leagues in 2020.
Alex Verdugo (CF/LF): Has always been a solid yet not spectacular prospect even going back to HS. FWIW, he was a good LHP prospect in high school too. What I like about Verdugo the most is he has a short, polished swing and he makes good contact with a powerful swing. He has developed significant loft in his swing so I would think he may be pitchable up with FB’s but his contact numbers are good in MLB. As supported by being a good pitcher too, he strikes me as a guy with a really good feel for the game. He missed time in 2019 because of a back injury which is concerning and due diligence would have to be done on that, but I think with a clean bill of health be a really good addition to the Indians and is arguably as valuable as or more than Lux. Already has a year of MLB service time.
Josiah Gray (RHP, SP): 6’0"-6’1", 205 lbs. Strong upper body but below average leverage. Gray’s best attribute is his 92-96 mph FB that gets good tailing action (also cuts it) and importantly has plus command of the pitch. Gary has a polished delivery and generates good velocity and movement with an easy, repeatable delivery. He shows MLB quality command of his FB right now and he’s effective working it up in the strike zone. His SL is his 2nd pitch and it is only MLB average in my opinion. I think he projects as a SP despite being shorter because his FB plays well at the MLB level and he can command it. I only saw a few (ineffective) CH’s from Gray and this is something he will need to improve on because right now he only has a few ways to get batters out (commanding a 93-94 mph FB with movement and his SL away vs. RHH). He is more polish than upside as a prospect. Indians seem to do well with pitchers like this and I think they would be interested in him, but not as a centerpiece to a deal.
Michael Busch (2b/1b/lf): 1st round pick (31st overall) in 2019 draft. I saw a lot of him over the years at UNC-Chapel Hill and he is the guy I wanted the Indians to take in the 2019 draft, but what I saw from Espino at MV as a pro has me now preferring Espino. Busch is 5’11", 200 lbs and is a very polished and patient hitter. He has a short, polished swing that is supportive of both contact and power. I think he is going to hit, but the question is position. He played 1B and corner OF in college. He is a good stationary athlete, but is a 45 runner and I think would be below MLB average in LF/RF defensively. I always saw him as a 2b, however. Dodgers drafted him as 2b and are playing him there. I can’t confidently say he’ll be adequate at 2b because UNC never played him there, but I think he has the aptitude to do it. I expect him to hit well in A-ball next year and likely ascend to AA. Plus hitter, draws walks, difficult guy to pitch to, should hit for decent power and hopefully play a skill position at 2b. It is notable that while the Indians did pass on him in the 1st round (Espino selected 24th overall), pre-draft rumors said the Indians were interested in Busch. I really like Busch but if he’s a dud at 2b, his value really diminishes. I think his athleticism is comparable to Jason Kipnis at a similar age.
Tony Gonsolin (RHP, SP): 6’2", 200 lbs, 92-95 mph FB and effectively throws a CB, SL and CH. He is best with his CH and he can command the pitch. His CB is a good MLB pitch and his SL is below MLB average but usable. He is 25 years old and apparently can throw upper 90’s if he were used in the pen, but he has three good offspeed pitches he can use so I don’t feel there is a need to move him. I think he is underwhelming from a talent perspective but all of his stuff is MLB quality. I only saw two innings of him so small sample size.
Where these Dodger prospects would fit in my Indians top prospect list…
1. Gavin Lux, 2b (Dodgers)
2. Dustin May, rhp (Dodgers)
3. Nolan Jones, 3b
4. Brayan Rocchio, mif
5. Tyler Freeman, mif
6. Josiah Gray, rhp (Dodgers)
7. George Valera, of
8. Ethan Hankins, rhp
9. Daniel Espino, rhp
10. Michael Busch, 2b/of (Dodgers)
11. Yu Chang, 3b
12. Tony Gonsolin, rhp (Dodgers)
13. Daniel Johnson, of
14. Logan Allen, lhp
15. Tristan McKenzie, rhp