Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Strategy Against Iran Isn't Working (It's Time For A Change)

Daniel R. DePetris

Security, Middle East

Diplomacy would be a good start.

More than a year and a half since the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran began, Washington is no closer to taming the country’s behavior or getting a “better deal” with Tehran.  President Trump needs to accept the reality in front of him: The problems posed by Iran are not going to be solved by more sanctions, isolation, or military deployments. It’s time to ditch the failed maximum pressure strategy and engage in pragmatic diplomacy.

The logic behind maximum pressure was simple: By slashing Iran’s oil exports, deterring foreign businesses from investing in the Iranian market, and shutting Iran out of the global financial system, Washington would force political leadership in Tehran to come begging for economic relief.

As the world’s dominant financial powerhouse, there was never any doubt the U.S. could strangle Iran’s economy.

Oil exports have declined from 2.8 million barrels a day in the spring of 2018 to less than 500,000 barrels per day in September, a reduction of more than 80 percent.  The International Monetary Fund projects the Iranian economy to contract by more than 9 percent once the year is up, a number that will inevitably worsen the unemployment rate and contribute to a sense of disillusionment among younger Iranians entering the workforce.

All these figures, however, don’t make up for the big picture: Despite the stress on Tehran’s economy, maximum pressure is having a counterproductive effect.