Conservative groups target their impeachment ‘Dirty 30’

Residents in 31 congressional districts are about to be inundated with millions of dollars’ worth of TV spots, Facebook ads, texts and tweets blaring that the “radical left” is trying to remove the president after a “witch hunt” — and that their Democratic representative is complicit.

Conservative organizations are blanketing those districts — which one group dubbed the “Dirty 30” — because each one voted for Trump in 2016, but later elected a Democrat in 2018. They’re convinced that impeachment has handed them a golden opportunity to flip those House seats in 2020, part of a long-shot bid to win back a Republican majority come November.

It’s a frenzied push to mobilize millions of grassroots activists as House Democrats move forward this week with a historic vote to impeach Trump, making him only the third president to face removal from office. The effort has looped in dozens of conservative groups, and is coordinated with the White House through twice-weekly briefing calls. Several people involved said the informal coalition has helped compensate for Trump administration’s anti-impeachment efforts, which numerous outside allies privately complained weren’t coherent or robust until recently.

“At least 31 House Democrats are hating their lives right now,” said Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, which bills itself as the nation's oldest conservative grassroots organization.

Trump himself even tweeted about the targeting effort on Saturday, and his son, Donald Trump Jr. encouraged his followers to go after the 31 members.

"Call non-stop, tweet at them, tell them this will NOT STAND & you’ll remember in Nov!" he tweeted.

It’s unclear how effective the advertising and mobilization blitz will be in the short run — Democrats are only expecting a few defections on the impeachment vote. And in the long run, it seems unlikely that Republicans will retake the House next year, unless the party figures out a way to win back suburban voters.

Still, Jenny Beth Martin, a co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, insisted that the coalition, which she called “Fight Impeachment Now,” could serve as “a force multiplier for the members of Congress fighting against impeachment.” Some of the biggest names in conservative circles have signed on — FreedomWorks, American Conservative Union, Heritage Action, Presidential Coalition and America First Policies.

Even the Club for Growth, a national network of 250,000 pro-growth, limited government Americans which opposed Trump’s 2016 campaign, has aired TV ads in nine of the 31 districts and used targeted digital campaigns to both oppose impeachment as well as push for censure of House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who led the initial Ukraine investigation.

The 31 Democrats in the crosshairs are scattered across the country, from New York to South Carolina to Michigan. But the through line is that they represent districts with Republican leanings. A dozen of the 31 lawmakers, for instance, are from districts that voted for the last three Republicans presidential nominees — Trump, Mitt Romney and John McCain.

Each will also have to take a politically difficult vote this week on whether to impeach Trump. The House Judiciary Committee voted along party lines last Thursday to approve two articles of impeachment, charging Trump with abuse of power for soliciting foreign interference in the 2020 presidential election and obstruction of Congress for blocking the House’s efforts to investigate.

Democrats say Trump conditioned a much-desired White House meeting for Ukraine’s leader, as well as millions in military aid, on Kyiv launching an investigation into rival Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Trump and his allies counter that the desired probe was part of a broader effort to eradicate corruption and uncover foreign wrongdoing in the 2016 presidential race.

The conservative groups’ main message is that Democrats are wasting time and money on a partisan effort.

“What’s damning is that three-quarters of Americans disapprove of Congress’ performance, yet Democrats refuse to do their jobs by funding the government, passing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal or protecting the border. That’s the real scandal,” Jessica Anderson, vice president of Heritage Action for America, wrote in a November op-ed, which came before Democrats did strike deals to approve the trade deal and fund the government.

They are targeting the 31 Democrats are using a variety of strategies. Some are asking their supporters to contact lawmakers while others ask them to show up at congressional town halls and offices and defend the president on social media. And, of course, some are spending millions of dollars on television.

FreedomWorks, which pushes for smaller government and lower taxes, is texting supporters, urging them to sign a petition targeting the “Dirty 30” on impeachment. America First Policies, which supports Trump’s policies, said its text messages to supporters — which reads “Your money wasted & priorities ignored. A Hopelessly Partisan Mess. End the Witch Hunt!” — have already generated 75,000 calls to lawmakers’ offices, according to the group’s spokeswoman Kelly Sadler.

Separately, America First is spending $2.26 million on an "End the Witch Hunt” campaign targeting 27 of the 31 House members through broadcast and cable television, newspapers, texts and Facebook ads.

The group also has conducted polls in some of those districts that it says found the majority of Americans oppose impeachment, approve of the president’s actions and want Congress to focus on kitchen table issues.

The American Action Network, which was founded in 2010 to promote center-right policies, is spending even more — $8.5 million on broadcast and cable TV and digital ads alleging that impeachment has sidelined progress on other issues.

And on Friday, the Presidential Coalition, which educates Americans of “principled conservative Republican leadership at all levels of government," launched $175,000 worth of ads in Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Michigan and South Carolina after already spending $1 million in five districts in those states, according to the group. It’s part of an effort to air $1.35 million in TV and digital ads in 17 of the targeted districts.

“They’re wasting millions on a partisan witch hunt to reverse the 2016 election. They know they can’t compete so they try to impeach,” the narrator says in one of their ads. “President Trump has been fighting for us. Now it’s time to fight for him.”

Two of the Democrats under outside pressure — Reps. Collin Peterson of Minnesota and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey — have been receiving extra attention because they voted against the initial resolution that set up the impeachment inquiry’s ground rules. (Van Drew, however, is on his way to switching parties.)

None of the groups have revealed what their strategies will be once the Senate launches its impeachment trial in January. They say they want to first see how the 31 House members vote.

The groups mobilized in part because they felt the White House was not mounting an adequately pugnacious campaign to fight Democrats on impeachment. More than one person affiliated with a conservative organization said the administration is still not doing enough to coordinate the effort or provide a coherent message on impeachment. Trump and his aides have veered from one message to another on impeachment since the House investigation began in September.

But the White House has become closely involved in the outside groups’ efforts. Officials with the White House Office of Public Liaison are holding the twice-weekly briefing calls with the conservative groups, as well as with Republican House and Senate officials. Some groups are equating the fight to the confirmation battles over Supreme Court Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.

Official Trump world has also been launching its own anti-impeachment fusillades, with the White House, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee all working to persuade voters that Democrats are trying to subvert the will of voters.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Staffers in the conservative advocacy world say their efforts have already paid off. They point to the vulnerable House Democrats who floated a last-minute bid to censure Trump instead of impeaching him — though the effort hasn’t gained much traction.

And while polls showed an uptick in support for impeachment soon after initial allegations of Trump pressuring Ukraine surfaced, the momentum has since slowed. Now, most polls show an even split between those who are for and those who are against impeachment.

“These are weak articles of impeachment and vulnerable House Democrats know it,” said David Bossie, president of the Presidential Coalition, an affiliate of Citizens United, which is spending $1.35 million on TV and Facebook ads. “Public opinion is moving in the wrong direction due to the lack of facts and evidence and these ads make it clear that a vote in favor of impeachment could cost Democrats the House majority.”

Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine