Baseball Cards and eBay: A Different Perspective on Prospect Ratings
Photo by Ed Delany, MMO
When it comes to finding out how Mets prospects are regarded around baseball we all know the usual places to look. Top 100 lists and the team’s top 30 are helpful, and provide us with some of the game’s insider views on the farm. However, there is another way to see how outsiders and non-Mets fans value our prospects. It is one many of you might not have thought about – eBay.
That’s right, eBay. The same place you can bid on a Cheeto in the shape of Yoda is also where you can see how the business of baseball cards values your farm system.
Bowman has been around the card game since 1939, but it’s not those vintage cards that fuel today’s multi-million dollar industry. It is the Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph (BC1A) cards. They are the first officially licensed product showing the prospect wearing their respective team’s uniform and the crown jewel for all prospect hunters (PH). Introduced in 1997 and revamped in 2006 when the MLBPA changed the rules on what could be considered a player’s Rookie Card, the BC1A has become the go to card for those looking to make a smart investment.
Like playing the stock market, but instead of trying to find the newest IPO, PH are trying to find the hidden bat with average/power potential or the next front line starter. Picking up the right prospects can make you money. And make money they have! For example the rarest version of the Mike Trout‘s Bowman Chrome Autograph sold for $400,000. Checking on the prices of a particular players cards versus other team’s prospects and guys in the same system is a good indicator for how PH feel about said player.
The Mets top prospect, Ronny Mauricio, is ranked number 81 in MLB top 100 prospects. His BC1A sells for $100. That is equalto the sales of Royce Lewis of the Twins, who is currently the number nine prospect in MLB. While the baseball insiders think Lewis is a much better prospect, card investors believe they both have around the same likelihood of becoming a star level player.
The Mets were celebrated after the draft this year for selections of Brett Baty , Matthew Allen , Josh Wolf and Jake Mangum. 2019 Bowman Draft was released on December fourth and it features the first autographs and cards of both Baty and Wolf. The two other top picks, Allen and Mangum, both get their first card as well, but not autographs as those will probably come in next years Bowman release.
It will be interesting to see how they fare in investor’s eyes. Currently PH have Baty valued as high as the analysts have him as his autograph is selling on average at $100-$125 dollars but when the shine of the new product wears off it will be interesting to see if he falls to more of the level of Andres Gimenez and Mark Vientos currently sitting around $30-$40 dollar range. Wolf on the other hand is not finding his autographs($15-$20 dollars) to be as popular among PH as some of this year’s other second round picks as it is right in line with his counterparts in the Mets system like Thomas Szapucki, David Peterson, and Jordan Humphreys? The early returns on Allen are strong as his non autographed cards are not considered “commons” and will cost you a noticeable amount more than say Mangum, who is not moving the needle for PH.
On the topic of Szapucki, he and Luis Carpio are two Mets prospects who have seen the price of their BC1A’s rise. When this time last year they were selling for an average of $3 dollars they have now risen to sit around $15 dollars. This is likely related to both having good showings this year coming off separate injuries. Gimenez has seen his prices bounce back after his strong showing in the AFL from what was a steep crash during the season with Binghamton when they had fallen to around $15-$20 dollars.
If you are looking for a bit of a sleeper in the Mets farm system look to Carlos Cortes. He is a name to keep an eye on as his cards have sold for higher than the average player ($5-$10 compared to $1-$3 for the average player in minor leagues)due to his play and versatility. Another key factor is his being the very rare ambidextrous fielder throwing right-handed at second and left-handed in the outfield.
In the end, the investors have just as much shot at getting it right or wrong as the insiders do. It’s interesting though to see how people who put their own money on the line view the hopes of future prospects.