How Cam Newton's lost 2019 season created a vital financial break for the Patriots

We had been talking about Cam Newton signing with the Patriots for months before it finally happened on Sunday night, but there was always one potential roadblock that was impossible to ignore: New England’s lack of cap space.

Well, a deal got done anyway, thanks in large part to Newton carrying a $1.1 million cap hit into the 2020 season. The deal also includes up to $6.5 million in incentives, which fall under the category of “not likely to be earned.” That’s an important distinction. Incentives that are considered “likely to be earned” (LTBE) count against a team’s cap BEFORE the season starts. “Not likely to be earned” (NLTBE) incentives do not count until after.

So how is that determined?

Well, it’s actually pretty simple. It’s based on benchmarks reached by the quarterback in the previous season. For instance, if a player had a bonus for playing in 15 games but only played in 14 the previous season, it would be considered an NLTBE bonus. If he had played in 16 games the season before, the bonus would be considered LTBE, and the team would have to fit the bonus into its budget before the season.

So with Newton playing in only two games in 2019, the Patriots had an extremely low bar to clear to come up with incentives that wouldn’t count against the cap until after the season. Because Newton did not throw a touchdown pass in 2019, New England could offer him a $5 million bonus for throwing just one touchdown pass in 2020. He could throw that touchdown pass in the first quarter of the first game and it still wouldn’t count against the Patriots’ cap until 2021.

We don’t actually know the details of the incentives included in Newton’s contract, but it’s possible (if not likely) that he will hit all of the benchmarks necessary to trigger them and earn that “extra” $6.5 million. If you’re wondering how the Patriots were able to lure a former MVP to New England for the vet minimum, that’s how.