The most dangerous day for disinformation isn't Election Day, it's the day after

• America's enemies are trying to sow confusion and discord around the election.
• And while many people are worried about disinformation in the days leading up to Election Day, it will be the day after votes are cast that will be most dangerous.
• Americans need to stay vigilant and trust the electoral process.
• Brett Bruen was the director of global engagement in the Obama White House and a career American diplomat. He runs the crisis-communications agency Global Situation Room.
• This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

While there is rightly a lot of focus on disinformation in the days leading up to the presidential election, I'm most worried about the day after Americans go to the polls. 

President Trump has already indicated he might not recognize the results. A number of groups and even a few foreign countries are preparing to cast doubt on the outcome. It is critically important that we are ready and rapidly respond on November 4, the most dangerous day for disinformation.

A shifting disinformation landscape

The tactics America's enemies are using to disrupt the election have changed a lot since 2016. Back then, Russia was primarily focused on diminishing support for Hillary Clinton and fomenting division across the United States. Most of the propaganda was stuff they themselves churned out. Some of it was pretty comical. Yet, it nonetheless served to exacerbate existing tensions.

Four years ago, weaponizing and amplifying stolen information was Moscow's most potent power. This time around Russia and the others like Iran, who have since gotten in the game are going local. Rather than developing their own disinformation, the focus has largely turned to engaging and magnifying the work of Americans. The strategy is now based on fanning the flames of homegrown conspiracy theories and outrageous rhetoric. In turn, this sort of misinformation  feels  more authentic to the average voter and is much more difficult for social media companies to track.

A long road ahead

Regardless of whether Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden appear to be the winner come next Wednesday, there will be a lot of people in deep denial. 

Rumors will run rampant about how the other side "stole their victory." But most worryingly, the president seems to be fomenting this coming anger and sowing these seeds of doubt. If the American people vote him out, he and a number of his supporters are likely to claim fraud. Russia will of course be there to lend a hand to amplify these calls.

One of the most basic tactics Trump and his foreign boosters will use is to make individual, isolated issues appear to be significant, systematic problems. A broken voting machine in Iowa will become thousands of machines down across the country. A misplaced mail-in ballot will turn into millions of uncounted votes. One allegation of someone illegally voting is going to quickly be spread around as a story of widespread voter fraud.

We're already seeing isolated, minor problems with the voting system — mostly due to the unprecedented nature of holding a national election in the midst of a pandemic — elevated to the level of grand conspiracy by Trump and his cronies.

The next task will be to keep attention on the accusations. Evidence will be fabricated and unsubstantiated claims will be blasted far and wide by Putin's propagandists. This will be accompanied by attempts to foment a violent response by both extremists on both sides of the political aisle. The chaos would serve to further delegitimize the process and potentially plunge our nation into a long period of instability. In short, it would represent the achievement of Moscow's most aspirational ambitions.

So what can we do? It is important that leaders and journalists help to put things in perspective. If there are reports of issues or incidents, encourage that they are investigated. But, don't blow them out of proportion. Politicians and the press need to appreciate how combustible the situation in our country is at the moment. 

We should not take things at face value. Foreign and domestic disinformation campaigns are going to shift into overdrive in the hours after the election. There is a need to be on heightened alert and even more carefully scrutinize "evidence" and emerging information. Resist the urge to re-share on social media. Remind friends and family that reports need to be verified and even if proven true may not represent a large-scale development.

The day after Election Day

The danger zone really starts the day after our elections. If we can justifiably solidify the sense that the process was free and fair on November 4, it will be exceptionally difficult to diminish or dilute that assessment. 

We are not used to making a big deal when fundamental processes work well in the United States. This year needs to be the exception. It's essential that Americans elevate and emphasize their positive experiences with voting.

It is not enough to meet fake with facts. Our adversaries still create the context in which we are having conversations. Instead, we have to seize this moment and tell the story ourselves of these historic elections. By showing the process and sharing our own accounts of what happened on Election Day, each of us can push back against attempts to manipulate our democracy. This year, the credibility of these polls truly rests in the hands of all Americans.

Brett Bruen was the director of global engagement in the Obama White House and a career American diplomat. He runs the crisis-communications agency Global Situation Room.