The U.S. election's battleground states: How are they looking?
“Battleground” or “swing” states, which can switch back and forth between the two major parties in U.S. presidential votes and are heavily courted by candidates, will be crucial to deciding the winner of this year’s election.
The road to the White House runs through a handful of U.S. states where the election is expected to be especially close, due to changing demographics and the polarizing politics of Republican President Donald Trump.
In total, the election will be decided by about a dozen states that could swing for either Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Opinion polls show Biden with a significant edge nationally, but his lead is tighter in these battlegrounds.
Here’s a look at some of the key races.
Florida
Electoral votes: 29
Polls close: 7 p.m. ET (Several counties in northwestern Florida are an hour behind the rest of the state)
Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up
Other key races: Competitive U.S. House of Representative races in the 15th and 26th districts
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Oct. 28 showed Trump had essentially moved into a tie with Biden in Florida, with 49 per cent saying they would vote for Biden and 47 per cent for the president.
With its 29 electoral votes, the state is a major prize, with its massive senior voting bloc seen as crucial.
On Thursday, Trump and Biden visited the same city hours apart, putting on full display their contrasting approaches to the resurgent coronavirus pandemic. Trump staged an outdoor rally in Tampa, while Biden held a drive-in rally later in Tampa where attendees remained in their cars.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 48 per cent of likely voters said Biden would be better at handling the pandemic, while 42 per cent said Trump would be better. Some 52 per cent said Trump would be better at managing the economy, against 41 per cent for Biden.
Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 20
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic
Other key races: Competitive U.S. House contests in the 1st and 10th districts
The battleground state of Pennsylvania has the highest odds of any state of being the tipping point in the election, according to an analysis by the FiveThirtyEight website.
Here, tensions have been running high ahead of the vote, with the Philadelphia prosecutor issuing a stark warning for Trump campaign poll-watchers not to overstep their bounds as they search for voter fraud. The Trump campaign has said it is recruiting an “army” of 50,000 volunteers to monitor polling places, an effort Democrats say could suppress the vote.
“Keep your Proud Boys, goon squads, and uncertified ‘poll watchers’ out of our city, Mr. President,” Democratic Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said in a statement. “Break the law here, and I’ve got something for you.”
In Pittsburgh, police officers will be working 12-hour shifts during the week of the election, up from the standard eight-hour shift, the department said. A department spokeswoman said the longer shifts have been implemented “on numerous occasions for many different reasons over the years,” though one veteran officer said it was highly unusual for an election week.
Arizona
Electoral votes: 11
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Leaning Democratic
Other key races: Competitive U.S. Senate contest
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Trump and Biden remain neck and neck in Arizona. Those voting for Biden were at 48 per cent, and those voting for Trump were at 46 per cent, but the two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey’s credibility interval.
A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 49 per cent for Biden and 46 per cent for Trump, with 37 per cent saying they already had voted.
Fifty per cent said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic, with 42 per cent saying Trump would be better.
Fifty per cent said Trump would be better at managing the economy, with 44 per cent saying Biden would be better.
“This election is a choice between a Trump boom and a Biden lockdown,” Trump recently said in this battleground state that he carried four years ago.
North Carolina
Electoral votes: 15
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up
Other key races: Competitive governor and U.S. Senate contests
In 2016, North Carolina went for Trump by a margin of 3.6 percentage points. When asked in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll if they approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job of president, 51 per cent said they disapprove, and 41 per cent said they approve.
Michigan
Electoral votes: 16
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic
Other key races: Competitive U.S. Senate contest
Michigan was one of the three historically Democratic industrial states — the others being Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — that narrowly voted for the Republican Trump in 2016, delivering him an upset victory.
Underscoring the critical importance of the swing state to both campaigns, Trump and Biden have each visited Michigan several times during the campaign and have deployed surrogates, including their running mates and family members.
Trump traveled to Michigan for a rally on Tuesday and plans to return there on Friday. Biden’s trip on Saturday will be his fourth visit in recent weeks.
Georgia
Electoral votes: 16
Polls close: 7 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up
Other key races: Both U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs and considered competitive.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed Biden with a five percentage-point lead over Trump in Georgia. It’s the first poll in the state where his lead exceeds the margin of error.
If Biden manages to become the first Democratic candidate to turn Georgia blue in 28 years, Asian Americans will likely play a decisive role in that victory.
Their ranks have soared in counties surrounding Atlanta in recent years, attracted to jobs in tech, science and medicine. Now up to almost a quarter million registered voters — more than enough to tip a tight race — Asian Americans here lean heavily Democratic and are highly motivated by economic issues, like income inequality and the call for higher taxes on the rich, pollsters say.
Indian Americans, the largest and wealthiest Asian group in Georgia, are the most inclined to vote for Democrats, research shows. That’s partly due to experiences in their native country, where they’ve seen government-funded higher education, for example, pull many out of hardship.
Texas
Electoral votes: 38
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET (Two western counties in Texas are an hour behind the rest of the state.)
Rating in presidential contest: Leans Republican
Other key races: Competitive U.S. Senate contest
In a sign of the passions sparked by the presidential race, Texas has surpassed its total 2016 vote count four days before Election Day.
Through Thursday, more than 9 million Texans had cast ballots, compared with 8.97 million four years ago, a record high at the time. Neither party knows who will benefit most from the surge, but it has put the reliably Republican state in play as a full-out battleground in the campaign’s final days.
Nowhere has seen a more dramatic display of enthusiasm than Harris County, home to Houston, Texas’s biggest city and the embodiment of its rapid growth and diversifying suburbs. The county’s voting, driven in part by innovations by freshly appointed County Clerk Chris Hollins, so far compose more than 15 per cent of all those cast in the sprawling state.
Texas is among the most closely watched after recent polls have been narrow enough to entice Biden to send his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, to Texas for a tour of the state on Friday.
Many of the Texas counties with the most dramatic surges in early voting are urban centres like Houston, a trend infusing fresh hope into Democrats’ dreams of flipping Texas. But solidly red counties have also seen records. And Texas has historically been lightly polled, leaving analysts skeptical of surveys showing a neck-and-neck presidential race.
Wisconsin
Electoral votes: 10
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic
Other key races: No governor or U.S. Senate races on the ballot
Trump beat Hillary Clinton here in 2016 by less than 1 point, and Biden’s campaign has touted his support for corn-based biofuels for weeks on rural radio and local television stations.
Biofuel plants are an important source of demand for farmers’ corn, used to make ethanol. Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency has angered growers by exempting oil refiners from requirements to add ethanol to their gasoline.
Rural America remains Trump country. Nationally, voters who identify as living in rural areas support Trump over Biden by 19 percentage points, up from a 14-point advantage in March, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls.
But there are cracks in Trump’s rural fortress, especially in areas hit hard by the coronavirus. In Wisconsin, Trump’s lead among rural voters shrank to two points in polls conducted Oct. 20-26, from nine points a month earlier, according to the Reuters/Ipsos polls.
The deluge of mail-in ballots makes it likely that the winner of several states, including major battlegrounds such as Wisconsin, will not be clear on Tuesday night. Election officials expect vote-tallying to take days.
Minnesota
Electoral votes: 10
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET
Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic
Other key races: Competitive contests for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House in the 1st and 7th districts
In hotly contested Minnesota, a federal appeals court on Thursday said Minnesota’s plan to count absentee ballots received after Election Day was illegal, siding with Republicans in the battleground state.
In a 2-1 decision, the U.S. 8th Circuit Court of Appeals said the deadline extension was an unconstitutional maneuver by the state’s top election official, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, a Democrat.
The ruling came one day after the U.S. Supreme Court left in place North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s extended deadlines for receiving mail-in ballots.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, said on Twitter that because of the “last minute” ruling, Minnesotans should vote in person or take a mail-in ballot directly to election officials.
“In the middle of a pandemic, the Republican Party is doing everything to make it hard for you to vote,” Klobuchar said.
With files from the Washington Post