Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything — pace, defensive rating, individual matchups — tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.
So every day, I’ll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.
That’ll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I’ll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.
And to go a step further, I’ll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that’ll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player’s total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn’t quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.
These values initially included last season’s data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.
Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating
This table shows each team’s spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team’s opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.
Teams are sorted by implied team total.
Team
Opp
Over/
Under
Spread
Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank
Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
MIL
GS
234.0
-6.0
120.0
121.0
5
109.1
9
LAC
POR
228.0
-5.5
116.75
122.4
3
121.0
29
ATL
NO
225.5
-4.0
114.75
115.6
10
119.2
28
DEN
DET
215.0
-14.0
114.50
122.3
4
112.3
13
GS
MIL
234.0
6.0
114.0
105.0
22
109.1
8
IND
CHI
224.5
-1.5
113.0
110.4
15
113.4
22
PHI
BOS
222.0
-2.0
112.0
111.0
14
112.6
16
CHI
IND
224.5
1.5
111.50
109.8
16
110.4
11
POR
LAC
228.0
5.5
111.25
120.6
6
109.6
10
NO
ATL
225.5
4.0
110.75
118.6
8
113.2
21
MIA
MEM
215.5
-5.0
110.25
104.7
23
107.8
7
BOS
PHI
222.0
2.0
110.0
115.2
11
103.2
2
TOR
LAL
211.5
-2.5
107.0
111.8
13
100.6
1
MEM
MIA
215.5
5.0
105.25
108.6
18
106.9
5
LAL
TOR
211.5
2.5
104.50
107.3
20
112.3
14
DET
DEN
215.0
14.0
100.50
104.5
24
112.8
18
Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points
This table shows each team’s adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team’s adjusted offensive rating and the opponent’s adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.
This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.
Team
Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank
Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank
Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
GS
MIL
102.8
2
102.2
3
102.5
107.1
109.7
MIL
GS
102.2
3
102.8
2
102.5
115.0
117.9
CHI
IND
100.3
11
100.1
12
100.2
110.1
110.3
IND
CHI
100.1
12
100.3
11
100.2
111.9
112.1
BOS
PHI
97.9
24
101.4
6
99.6
109.2
108.8
PHI
BOS
101.4
6
97.9
24
99.6
111.8
111.4
MEM
MIA
100.6
9
96.8
28
98.7
107.8
106.4
MIA
MEM
96.8
28
100.6
9
98.7
106.2
104.9
LAL
TOR
98.0
22
99.4
14
98.7
109.8
108.3
TOR
LAL
99.4
14
98.0
22
98.7
106.2
104.8
ATL
NO
98.4
19
98.7
18
98.5
117.4
115.7
NO
ATL
98.7
18
98.4
19
98.5
115.9
114.2
LAC
POR
97.9
23
97.7
25
97.8
121.7
119.1
POR
LAC
97.7
25
97.9
23
97.8
115.1
112.6
DEN
DET
96.4
29
97.5
26
96.9
117.3
113.7
DET
DEN
97.5
26
96.4
29
96.9
108.7
105.3
Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position
This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense’s opponent).
The matchups shown are their opponent’s defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.
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