NHL Betting Guide for April 6th
Monday was a high-scoring night in the NHL, with five of the seven games going over the posted total. It’s a busy Tuesday with nine more games scheduled. You can tell that we are approaching the crunch time in the NHL, as eight of the nine games on the docket have a total of 5.5, which indicates that we should expect more tight-checking games. We are looking at two Eastern Seaboard games that present value on the betting board tonight.
Here are the wagers from FanDuel Sportsbook!
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers Spread, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Hurricanes -154, Panthers +130
Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+155), Panthers +1.5 (-188)
Total: o 5.5 -134
Odds to Stanley Cup: Hurricanes +1300|Panthers +2000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers News, Analysis, and Picks
I, for one, thought that the Florida Panthers would be de-railed by the Aaron Ekblad injury, but so far, that has not been the case. The Panthers have won all five games since Ekblad went down with the leg injury, but in doing so, they have created a massive disconnect between actual goals-for and expected goals-for percentages at five-on-five.
Over their last six games, the Panthers have outscored their opponents 13-4 at five-on-five, which equals a goals-for percentage of 76.5%. Their expected goals-for percentage during that stretch is 47.0%, and they’ve been objectively outplayed in four of the five games. That has brought their season-long actual goals-for percentage above their expected goals-for percentage, which implies that they are due for regression. What’s most concerning is that all five games came against the bottom three teams in the NHL Central Division, teams that the Panthers should dominate.
Another indicator that the Panthers’ luck is about to run out; their PDO has come up to 1.012 thanks to the five-game sample in which their shooting and save percentages tallied a 1.077 average. The Panthers have breached the sustainable level. Both expected goals-for and PDO metrics indicate that the Panthers bubble is about to burst.
The Carolina Hurricanes are on the opposite side of the expected goals-for percentages. At five-on-five, the Canes have put up four straight games with an expected goals-for percentage above 66.0%. Cumulatively, the metric is a 71.3% advantage in favor of the Hurricanes. The expected goals-for metric is nearly as impressive across all strengths. Their lowest expected goals-for percentage in any game was 59.1%, and the cumulative total was 67.0%.
Despite the dominance, Carolina’s PDO has plummeted to .967 over the four-game sample, and the Canes have split the four games. Look for the Hurricanes to get back on the winning track over their next few games as output starts to match production.
We’re expecting the Panthers’ house of cards to come crashing down against a Canes team that is deserving of a few more wins. Carolina moneyline is the wager to make.
The Bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-154)
New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres Spread, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Devils -174, Sabres +146
Spread: Devils -1.5 (+158), Sabres +1.5 (-192)
Total: o5.5 -102
Odds to Stanley Cup: Devils +25000|Sabres +25000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres News, Analysis, and Picks
It’s tough to get excited about a matchup between two teams who have a combined 21-40-12 record. Still, an edge is an edge, and we’re using Tuesday night’s encounter between the New Jersey Devils and the Buffalo Sabres to back the Sabres.
It’s hard not to oversimplify, but apparently, the solution to the Sabres woes was Linus Ullmark. Coincidentally, the Sabres losing streak began when Ullmark went down with an injury and ended two games after returning. A closer inspection of his metrics reveals why. Ullmark is 7-5-3 on the season with a 2.44 goals-against average and 92.1% save percentage. From an advanced perspective, Ullmark has 5.6 goals saved above average and 87 goals-against percentage, as calculated by Hockey-Reference, both of which are above average.
Ullmark has a positive effect on his team play as well. In the four games he’s played since returning from injury, the Sabres have posted a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 49.0% at five-on-five. In the only game he didn’t play, the expected goals-for percentage dropped to 35.7%, albeit on the second night of a back-to-back.
Further proof that the Sabres are a different team with Ullmark in net comes from the chances they allow. Since he went down with an injury, opponents are averaging 25.3 scoring chances and 9.8 high-danger chances when he starts and 30.2 scoring and 13.5 high-danger opportunities when he doesn’t. The Sabres need Ullmark between the pipes to be competitive.
At five-on-five, the Devils are more competitive than their record implies. They are 17th in the league with an expected goals-for percentage of 49.8%, but across all strengths, that number dips to 47.0%, dropping the Devils to 23rd in the league.
That is analogous to their recent performances. At five-on-five, New Jersey has out-paced three of their last five opponents. When adjusted across all strengths, the Devils have outplayed their opponents just once over their last five games. The net effect is the Devils’ special teams let them down time and time again. There’s no reason to believe that changes against a Sabres team that has allowed only one powerplay goal on 10 opportunities over the last three games.
The Devils have been on the wrong end of tight contests in five of their last six games. On the other bench, the Sabres have captured five of a possible six points over their last three games. We’re not passing up the Sabres at +146.
The Bet: Sabres +146