What an estimated 80,000 store closings say about the future of US retail

Before Covid-19, e-commerce had already upended the economics of stores. The pandemic-driven explosion in online sales is likely to force retailers to take an even harder look at their store footprints, resulting in an estimated 80,000 locations shutting their doors in the next five years, according to a forecast by investment firm UBS.

That’s roughly 9% of the 878,000 stores it currently counts in the US. Of course that still leaves nearly 800,000 stores. What Covid-19 has made clear is that while stores may still be essential, they also need a clear purpose—or purposes—if they’re to go on existing.

The pandemic pushed US shoppers online in record numbers. UBS notes that in 2019, approximately 14% of Americans bought goods online. Last year that number jumped to 18%. Its analysis predicts e-commerce penetration will rise to 27% by 2026.

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