FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 4/6/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and — depending on injury news — even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we’re here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you’ll need to make sure that you’re up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We’ll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day’s top plays at each position.
Please note: When I’m referencing a player’s value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we’ll be targeting.
Let’s take a look at who you should target on tonight’s eight-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.
All injury updates are via the NBA’s official injury report or numberFire’s player news.
Slate Overview
This table is via Brandon Gdula‘s matchup sheet — it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team’s spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad’s offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.
Teams are sorted by their implied total.
| Team | Opp | Over/
Under |
Spread | Implied
Total |
Adj.
Offensive Rating |
Rank | Opp Adj.
Defensive Rating |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | GS | 234.0 | -6.0 | 120.0 | 121.0 | 5 | 109.1 | 9 |
| LAC | POR | 228.0 | -5.5 | 116.75 | 122.4 | 3 | 121.0 | 29 |
| ATL | NO | 225.5 | -4.0 | 114.75 | 115.6 | 10 | 119.2 | 28 |
| DEN | DET | 215.0 | -14.0 | 114.50 | 122.3 | 4 | 112.3 | 13 |
| GS | MIL | 234.0 | 6.0 | 114.0 | 105.0 | 22 | 109.1 | 8 |
| IND | CHI | 224.5 | -1.5 | 113.0 | 110.4 | 15 | 113.4 | 22 |
| PHI | BOS | 222.0 | -2.0 | 112.0 | 111.0 | 14 | 112.6 | 16 |
| CHI | IND | 224.5 | 1.5 | 111.50 | 109.8 | 16 | 110.4 | 11 |
| POR | LAC | 228.0 | 5.5 | 111.25 | 120.6 | 6 | 109.6 | 10 |
| NO | ATL | 225.5 | 4.0 | 110.75 | 118.6 | 8 | 113.2 | 21 |
| MIA | MEM | 215.5 | -5.0 | 110.25 | 104.7 | 23 | 107.8 | 7 |
| BOS | PHI | 222.0 | 2.0 | 110.0 | 115.2 | 11 | 103.2 | 2 |
| TOR | LAL | 211.5 | -2.5 | 107.0 | 111.8 | 13 | 100.6 | 1 |
| MEM | MIA | 215.5 | 5.0 | 105.25 | 108.6 | 18 | 106.9 | 5 |
| LAL | TOR | 211.5 | 2.5 | 104.50 | 107.3 | 20 | 112.3 | 14 |
| DET | DEN | 215.0 | 14.0 | 100.50 | 104.5 | 24 | 112.8 | 18 |
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young ($8,500) – As I out covered in today’s studs column, Trae Young is a key target tonight. He’ll be facing a New Orleans Pelicans team that’s banged up and ranks 26th versus point guards in 2020-21, according to numberFire’s DvP tool. In five previous matchups against teams that are bottom-five against the position, Young has averaged 49.8 FanDuel points — including at least 45.9 in each game. numberFire’s models project Young to produce 44.1 FanDuel points, making him one of the best point-per-dollar plays at the position.
Other Studs to Consider (in order of preference): Stephen Curry ($9,500), Damian Lillard ($9,200), Lonzo Ball ($7,500)
Value Play
Malachi Flynn ($5,100) – As the Toronto Raptors‘ backcourt depth has thinned due to injuries, Malachi Flynn has been the primary beneficiary. In his last two games, Flynn has seen 30.6 and 33.8 minutes of action, resulting in fantasy outputs of 33.5 and 47.2, respectively. The Los Angeles Lakers are far from a tough draw for point guards. Over their last 30 games, the Lakers have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, according to FantasyPros. Our algorithm projects Flynn to be the best value play at the position and third-best on the entire slate.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options: Malcolm Brogdon ($6,700 – Questionable), T.J. McConnell ($5,600 – if Brogdon is out), Ja Morant ($7,000)
Shooting Guard
Stud
Caris LeVert ($8,000) – The high-end range at the shooting guard position tonight is as thin as LeBron James‘ hairline, but Caris LeVert could wind up being a worthwhile target if, and only if, Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis can’t suit up. With those two out on Saturday, LeVert dropped 51 FanDuel points in 37.9 minutes while sporting a 30.8% usage rate — all were his highest marks as a member of the Indiana Pacers. The matchup tonight isn’t one we need to shy away from — the Chicago Bulls have allowed the most fantasy points to the position over their last seven games.
Other Studs to Consider: Zach LaVine ($7,200), Paul George ($8,700)
Value Play
DeAndre Bembry ($3,700) – With Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry out last night, Bembry saw 30.1 minutes and totaled 36.9 fantasy points in the process. At a salary just $200 above the minimum, that’s absolutely elite value. numberFire’s models project the 26-year-old to be the second-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options: Marcus Smart ($5,500), Grayson Allen ($4,700), Hamidou Diallo ($5,600)
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler ($9,100) – Butler is no longer the no-brainer play he was a few weeks ago, but he is still plenty worthy of consideration. Despite not showcasing the high floor/ceiling combination he did in March, the veteran has still managed at least 41.5 FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings. His matchup tonight is a friendly one — the Memphis Grizzlies rank 26th against small forwards this campaign.
Other Studs to Consider: OG Anunoby ($8,000), Khris Middleton ($7,600), Kawhi Leonard ($9,500)
Value Play
Justin Holiday ($4,100) – Holiday remains one of the most consistent value plays in DFS. The 32-year-old has recorded 21 or more fantasy points in 18 of his last 27 games, and he only needs 20.5 to accrue five-times value tonight. The matchup with Chicago is not one to fear — the Bulls are 12th-most-generous to the position over their last 15 games.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options: Patrick Williams ($4,500), Saddiq Bey ($4,400), Danilo Gallinari ($5,200)
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) – Giannis missed the Milwaukee Bucks‘ last game, but he is probably to take the court tonight. Prior to pegging the Portland Trail Blazers for 47 real-life points and 72.4 FanDuel points on Friday, Giannis had topped out at 55.1 fantasy points in his previous six outings, including four straight with fewer than 45. That means that we shouldn’t have to worry about the two-time MVP being extremely popular. The Golden State Warriors play at the fastest pace among all the teams playing tonight, and they’ve struggled defending power forwards this season, ranking 29th against the position per 48 minutes. Our algo projects the Antetokounmpo to be the top scorer on tonight’s slate.
Other Studs to Consider: Pascal Siakam ($8,700), Zion Williamson ($9,700 – Questionable), Jayson Tatum ($9,200)
Value Play
Jerami Grant ($6,400) – Grant has appeared in 47 games this season, and he’s eclipsed 32 FanDuel points in 29 of them. In order to return our baseline value figure of 5.0, Grant would only need 32 fantasy points at tonight’s salary. Luckily, this matchup with the Denver Nuggets is a dandy. Over their last 15 games, no team in the Association has given up more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than Denver. Grant is numberFire’s top-projected value play at the position.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options: Isaiah Stewart ($3,700), Lauri Markkanen ($4,700), Jaxson Hayes ($4,800)
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic ($8,800) – Chicago’s prize deadline acquisition is starting to get acclimated with his new team, as Vucevic has posted fantasy outputs of 49.5 and 51.6 in two of his last three games. Tonight, he’ll get a mouth-watering matchup against the Pacers. In their last 30 games, Indiana ranks 25th against opposing centers.
Other Studs to Consider: Nikola Jokic ($10,600), Joel Embiid ($10,800), Bam Adebayo ($8,500)
Value Play
Andre Drummond ($5,200) – numbeFire’s algorithm projects Drummond to be the top value on the entire slate should he suit up tonight. The big man burned us last time by only producing 8.2 fantasy points in 14.3 minutes in his Lakers debut before exiting with a toe injury, but he’ll have a good chance of righting that if he plays tonight. Drummond will be squaring off against a Raptors interior that ranks 21st against fives over their last 30 games.
Other Mid-Range and Value Options: Myles Turner ($6,200), Chris Boucher ($5,600), Enes Kanter ($5,800)