Political Analyst: In Case of Early Elections in Bulgaria New Parties Will Have Overwhelming Majority
We will most likely have an expert minority government, nominated by the three new parties and at least moderately supported by the status quo parties, and in case of elections in three months the new ones in parliament will have a majority - they are yet to gain strength, told Dir.bg political scientist Evgeny Dainov.
- Two groups are forming in parliament: that of the status quo - GERB, BSP, MRF and that of the change - "There is such a people", Democratic Bulgaria and "Stand up! Mafiosi out." What possible moves both sides could make to overcome the emerging political crisis?
- The most possible move is for the three parties of the status quo to come together and try to keep things as they were. I don't know if it's going to work out for them, though. MRF's pushing a lot, you can see that. Boyko Borissov shows some readiness, this is also apparent. Kornelia Ninova's only trump card is to play hard against the status quo, because she herself admitted yesterday that BSP fellow party members see her as part of the status quo. So this option - the three incumbent parties to form a joint government, is possible, but not particularly likely. From this point on, all other options are available, the new parties to form a minority government by uniting around 4-5 items that they agree on - most of all to amend the Electoral Code, change some other things in the legal framework and move on to new elections. I think all three new parties are ready to opt for a minority government doing 7-8 important things in three months and going to new elections. The new parties are up for it, and they know something else very well. In three months, if there are elections again, all three new parties that have made it to parliament will have an overwheliming majority. They're still gaining strength. So none of them interested in coalescing with any of the old parties.
- What do you think about the political fate of BSP?
- BSP is a very interesting animal. It has been dying for 30 years in very slow motion, diversified with temporary ups. In the last 30 years BSP has failed to keep abreast with the spirit of time. All kinds of ideas surfaced, which grabbed people both in Bulgaria and in Europe, but BSP remained outside them, focused on its own imaginary past. Stanishev tried to make a Western party from BSP, but it refused to become a Western party. LatelyKornelia Ninova has been trying to make the BSP some Eastern Eurasian, nationalist, traditional, medieval party, which was a doomed attempt. Apparently Ninova's attempt to bring BSP back to macabre middle ages will damp hopes for BSP future as political trendsetter. I expect BSP to shrink to 5-6% of electoral support and remain there as a purely nostalgic Communist Party.
- Did the vote from abroad surprise you?
It surprised me how many people voted, regardless of huge problems. It's a surprise. The results didn't surprise me much. Bulgarians abroad have never voted for BSP and now they did not vote for it again. They didn't vote for the extreme nationalists either. Now there were some votes, but not many, for Vazrazhdane (Revival). What surprised me - both in the country and abroad - was the unexpected result for Slavi Trifonov. Obviously, talking to people like he did for 30 years, coming down to the level of the ordinary person, has yielded very good political results. People embraced Slavi Trifonov for saying understandable things to them. And they transformed it into a pretty impressive political vote. If there are early elections in three months, I would not be surprised to see Slavi Trifonov come out first.
- And who wouldn't head the next government?
- Depends on what kind of government it's going to be. If it is (what seems most likely to me) an expert minority government nominated by the three new parties and at least moderately supported by the old parties, a PM could be anyone - could be an economist, for instance. If it is a short-term government, there is no party leader ready to sacrifice themselves for such a government, an expert will head it.
- Do you think that there will be new elections soon and what should the next National Assembly do if so?
- This parliament is not viable, not capable of fulfilling its mandate. So there will be early elections because with this fragmented configuration the parliament cannot last long. It depends on whether we go through a caretaker government or some expert government, these are the questions. Otherwise there will be new elections after which the three new parties will have an overwhelming majority, I think yesterday it became obvious.
(Abridged)