‘Belfast’ rises in Oscar odds following successful bows at Telluride and Toronto festivals

“Belfast” is now one of the top 10 films in our Oscar odds for Best Picture, based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. This comes after the film made strong impressions at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals. But Best Picture isn’t the only race where it’s making strides.

The film tells the story of a boy’s upbringing in the title city during the 1960s amid the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and as of this writing it has a 75 score on MetaCritic and 90% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes based on those early reviews. As of this writing it has ascended to ninth place in our overall odds for Best Picture. But the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets are even higher on the film with 12 of them betting on it to be nominated and three saying that it’ll even win: Clayton Davis (Variety), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), and Jazz Tangcay (Variety).

Kenneth Branagh is also making inroads in Best Director, currently knocking on the door in sixth place in our overall odds. Eight Experts predict he’ll be nominated, with two of them giving him the edge to win: Davis and Tangcay. And right now Branagh is a likely nominee for Best Original Screenplay, placing fifth. Branagh has had an eclectic career as a filmmaker, breaking out with his 1989 adaptation of Shakespeare’s “Henry V,” which earned him Oscar noms for Best Actor and Best Director. He has since received three more nominations, all in different categories: Best Live Action Short for “Swan Song” (1992), Best Adapted Screenplay for “Hamlet” (1996), and Best Supporting Actor for “My Week with Marilyn” (2011). But he hasn’t won yet.

Despite his Shakespearean reputation with directing credits like “Much Ado About Nothing” (1993), “Love’s Labour’s Lost” (2000), and “As You Like It” (2006), he has also helmed the action films “Thor” (2011) and “Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit” (2014), plus the Disney films “Cinderella” (2015) and “Artemis Fowl” (2020), so his filmic output has been varied to say the least. But films like “Belfast” about characters living through turbulent historical times have had Oscars success over the years — from “Pan’s Labyrinth” (2005) to “Roma” (2018) to “Jojo Rabbit” (2019). If “Belfast” lives up to its positive early notices when it’s released on November 12, it has the potential to do as well if not better.

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