Agriculture is an economic bright spot in Mexico

ROMÁN JUÁREZ has expanded his tomato farm several times since starting it 15 years ago. It now spans two separate sites in a rural area of the state of Puebla, south-east of Mexico City. In a good season, each one of the 38,000 plants he grows in his large, greenhouse-like tents can produce up to 160 tomatoes. Although farming can be risky, Mr Juárez is prospering, mostly because since 2016 he has exported his produce to the United States. “We do business where there is business,” he says.

This year Mexico is expected to export 1.8m tonnes of tomatoes to its northern neighbour, a record. Last year exports of tomatoes alone were worth around $2.3bn. Tomatoes are the most striking—and the largest—example of a bigger trend. Mexico exported agricultural goods worth $39.5bn last year, around 10% of the country’s total exports. Agriculture, which accounts for 4% of Mexico’s GDP, grew by 2% last year, even as the economy as a whole contracted by 8.5%.

Mexico has exported food for centuries. But the more recent boom has its roots in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA, now superseded by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the USMCA), which came into force in 1995. Back then Mexican exports of tomatoes were valued at just $406m. Agriculture used to be “the ugly duckling” of the Mexican economy, says Juan...