Norway Chess 2021, Round 9: Carlsen Wins Again, Leads

Remember, folks: when a streaky player is down, you've got to keep him down. In the first half of this year's edition of the Norway Chess tournament, Magnus Carlsen wasn't playing particularly well, with four draws and a loss in the classical games. Then, with a win in round 6, it was as if a light switch was flipped on, and now he has won four in a row and has finally vaulted into the lead.

Today's victim was the player who conquered him in round 5, Sergey Karjakin. In fact, Carlsen didn't start this game very well, and was much worse if not lost in the early middlegame. But he defended well, and Karjakin couldn't figure things out. Things went from bad to worse for Carlsen's 2016 challenger, and the champ brought home the full point - or rather, the full three points, bringing his tournament total to 18 points of a possible 27.

Richard Rapport could have kept a half point lead with a win over Ian Nepomniachtchi, but he got nothing with the white pieces and the players repeated moves while still in the opening. Rapport had better chances in the Armageddon game, but a complicated, up-and-down battle finished in Nepo's favor. Rapport got one point for the draw, Nepomniachtchi a point and a half for the draw and the Armageddon win.

Rapport is thus a point and a half behind Carlsen going into the last round, which means that there are several ways that he could catch or even pass Carlsen. If Carlsen loses his classical game against Nepo, then if Rapport defeats Alireza Firouzja in their classical game, Rapport wins the tournament, full stop. If Carlsen loses his classical game and Rapport draws his classical game and wins the Armageddon game, they finish in a tie and go to a playoff. If Carlsen draws his classical game, Rapport has to win his classical game. Assuming the latter, then Carlsen would have to win his Armageddon game to force a playoff; otherwise, he'd finish half a point behind Rapport.

All of these scenarios rely upon Rapport having some degree of success against Firouzja, but he too has his hopes, slim though they are. Critically, he had to beat Aryan Tari today, and with his third classical win in a row he did so, reaching 15 points. So if he can beat Rapport with the white pieces in the classical game, and Carlsen loses to Nepo, then there would be a Carlsen-Firouzja playoff. Given how poorly Nepomniachtchi has played the last few rounds, this seems unlikely, but if there's any game he'll be motivated for it's this one - and he'll have White. Stay tuned.

Last round pairings:

• Nepomniachtchi (11) - Carlsen (18)
• Firouzja (15) - Rapport (16.5)
• Karjakin (8.5) - Tari (6)