Is Dune A Success? Box Office, HBO Max Views & Sequel Plans Explained
Quantifying Dune's success outside of its confirmed sequel plans effectively boils down to the box office numbers and HBO Max viewing statistics of this sprawling sci-fi epic. Denis Villeneuve's Dune has been a highly anticipated feature, with the Blade Runner 2049 director having been slated to work on the project since 2016. An all-star cast, exotic filming locations, and a Hans Zimmer-led score amount to a mammoth budget allocation from distributor Warner Bros., all factors which pile the pressure on Dune to be an immediate success.
Frank Herbert's original Dune novel is perceived as something of a poisoned chalice for directors following David Lynch's attempt at translating Herbert's narrative to the big screen. Lynch struggled to balance planetary exposition and effective storytelling, with Dune 1984's slim runtime amplifying the film's rushed feel. The scope of David Villeneuve's Dune must be commended, then, with the decision to split Dune's story across two movies allowing room for the ample worldbuilding that a canon like Dune's requires.
Dune's reception with critics suggests the film will be viewed as a success, with reviews praising the movie's ambition and ability to deliver a visually thrilling adaptation out of convoluted source material. Dune's box office and streaming numbers thus far are also impressive, with the film laying down a marker for the image of commercial success in a post-pandemic theatre landscape.
Dune's budget and production costs were reportedly an estimated $165 million, although this number still represents a drop in the bucket compared to projects of similarly grandiose scope such as Avengers: Endgame or Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. Dune's marketing, however, has been particularly extensive, with the film's prerelease efforts dancing to the tune of another $135 million. This brings Dune's total costs to a nicely rounded $300 million, which would be a great threshold for the film to cross at the worldwide box office for it to be considered a well-rounded "success," particularly due to the movie's day-and-date release on HBO Max. This admission is telling in a post-pandemic theatre landscape, with Warner Bros. perfectly happy to take a financial hit provided Dune's debut sparks the start of a successful sci-fi franchise.
Dune's box office performance is certainly a qualified success, with the movie having the biggest opening of any Warner Bros.' movie in 2021 as well as of Villeneuve's career. Dune's staggered release across a month, which spans 15 markets, means as of October 24th, 2020, the film has already grossed $223.2 million despite its US and Canada releases still being in their infancy. In these two domestic markets, Dune took an impressive $41 million on its opening weekend from 4,125 theaters, surpassing its projected (and now conservative-looking) opening estimates which ranged from $30–35 million. Of Dune's opening weekend take, $17.5 million came from its first-day ticket sales, including $5.1 million from Thursday night previews, highlighting the excitement surrounding Denis Villeneuve's movie. These domestic numbers are all the more impressive in the context of Dune's simultaneous first streaming date on the HBO Max platform, which could have easily detracted from Dune's theatrical release sales.
If Dune's box office numbers have been a welcome surprise, then the movie's viewership on HBO Max has been nothing short of revelatory. Samba TV statistics acquired by Variety state that Dune was viewed on HBO Max's platform by a whopping 1.9 million US households during its opening weekend period. This is all the more impressive considering Dune's streaming performance across its opening weekend beat releases with a (supposedly) wider audience cache, such as Zack Snyder's Justice League which was viewed by 1.8 million. While Dune does trail behind HBO Max's best comparative streaming performers in The Suicide Squad, viewed by 2.8 million households within the same timeframe, its more niche appeal and smaller fanbase means Warner executives can feel very pleased with Dune's viewership numbers on HBO Max to date. Furthermore, these estimated numbers don't account for individuals viewing in each household. Taking those numbers and multiplying them by the average number of viewers per account, the average price of tickets in the United States, and against the split between regular and IMAX viewings, it's fair to say Dune could've had an opening weekend almost double its size in a non-pandemic period.
Even discounting its mammoth overall budget, Dune was under immense pressure to perform upon release due to the franchise's sequel hopes riding singularly on its success. This was a galling admission by the studio for many audiences, who harbored long-seated concerns that Dune 2 would be rejected, leaving Paul Atreides' (box office gold Timothée Chalamet) story incomplete. However, this reality has not come to pass, with Dune 2 recently green-lighted by Legendary and Warner Bros. studios and is set to hit theatres in October 2023.
Toby Emmerich, chairman of Warner Bros. Pictures Group, has shed further light on exactly why Dune 2 is moving ahead, stating: “Denis Villeneuve has crafted a film that is both visually extraordinary and emotionally transporting, as evidenced by its global success both critically and at the box office." It would seem, then, that Dune 2 is happening for several reasons. While Dune's commercial success has understandably made Warner Bros. and co. very keen to return to Arrakis, Emmerich's comments also allude to the breathtaking nature of the final product, meaning Dune's box office sales, streaming numbers, and success as a film have all conspired to ensure Dune 2's story existence. Much of this was reliant on Legendary Pictures, who financed 80% of the production costs, so they may not have been willing to shed out so much money if the first film flopped, despite Villeneuve's plans for two films when he signed on.
While Dune's box office success has rightly been lauded as a signifier of theatrical's recovery, the effects of Denis Villeneuve's epic on both the box office and HBO Max is a little more nuanced. Dune's theatre ticket sales must be put into context, with the film unlikely to recoup its production costs and turn a profit with any immediacy. Instead, Dune's better-than-expected sales performance marks the ability for the franchise to go again, with Warner executives hoping Dune 2 will continue to recoup any deficit left in the two-year interim. In this way, Dune‘s success will be measured against its longevity and franchise marketability, with the film already poised to be in the running for the upcoming awards season.
The question of whether Dune 2 will return as a dual release on HBO Max is more specific, however, given Warner Bros. has routinely stated this release model was only for 2021. Furthermore, reports have indicated that the sequel will have a strict theatrical release. Although Warner Bros and Legendary Pictures undoubtedly used Dune's inclusion on HBO Max to engender excitement for the film during the pandemic, the success of Dune means they won't need this extra viewership platform for their sequel. Instead, audiences can look forward to seeing Dune's world and future on the big screens, with the sequel only coming to HBO Max after the theatrical window has closed.